NEOH Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Low to mid 50s anyone? Chalk up another 50 degree day this winter. It's actually been a while officially, but sad to see 50s outnumbering 20s 2 to 1 this season. I swear when I checked the forecast this morning it said a high of 44, which seemed odd considering it didn't dip below 40 overnight. I wasn't expecting sunny and 50 this afternoon. Looks like the lake breeze came onshore with temps in the low 40's now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The difference in AFD's from BUF and CLE is amazing - CLE: ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFERSOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS...THE TRENDS ARE VERY CLOSE. BY MORNING COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES BUT LITTLE ELSE. RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES...LIFTING THE STALLED FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED. BUF: THE MODEL PROGS CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN ENVELOPE OF TRACKS WITH THE NAM FEATURING THE STRONGEST...FASTEST...MOST NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE LOW AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...MOST SOUTHERLY...AND WEAKEST OF THE MODELS. THE GFS IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/SREF SOLUTION...TAKING A 987MB LOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING....WITH THE CMC FEATURING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE ADIRONDACKS. IN ADDITION TO HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WE RECEIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...THE CMC SOLUTION WOULD ALSO KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LONGER...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WITH THE LOW. THE CMC SOLUTION IS ALSO PLAUSIBLE...AND CONSISTENT...WHICH ONLY FURTHER PROPAGATES THE CONUNDRUM. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BLEND OF THE GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS. GOING WITH THIS COMPROMISE SOLUTION...THE SCENARIO FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS AS FOLLOWS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I wasn't expecting sunny and 50 this afternoon. Looks like the lake breeze came onshore with temps in the low 40's now. I actually stepped outside for a break when it came through. The nice warm spells never last long! The Euro shows a decent snowstorm for the entire state midweek next week. Something to keep an eye on for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Odd to see snow on the ground this morning. Nickel and diming our way through winter. Will probably melt soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It was nice to see the snow coating everything this morning with the fog around. Even though we will be on the warm side of the storm, looks like we can count on a few inches of LES behind the storm. OH has been a wasteland for synoptic snows this year. I wonder what our snow total would be at this point without LES or lake enhanced snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I see the 12z nam clown map is sinking south with the snow. Neo is really close , does anyone think we have a shot ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It was nice to see the snow coating everything this morning with the fog around. Even though we will be on the warm side of the storm, looks like we can count on a few inches of LES behind the storm. OH has been a wasteland for synoptic snows this year. I wonder what our snow total would be at this point without LES or lake enhanced snow. Easily under 10". Also, If you remove every event under 2.5" this winter, the totals look even more ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I see the 12z nam clown map is sinking south with the snow. Neo is really close , does anyone think we have a shot ? There was a brief period that this was a threat for NE Ohio a few days ago. But really all we have to look forward to is a few inches of wrap around LES over the weekend. A couple more nickels to pad the seasonal total. At least when the mid Atlantic has a 30" winter, it's through several decent snows, not a couple handfuls of daily dustings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Easily under 10". Also, If you remove every event under 2.5" this winter, the totals look even more ridiculous. Wow. Well, at least we did well with synoptic rain storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Enjoy the WTOD and rain tonight. Here's what BUF is forecasting just up the shoreline in WNY - EXPECT THIS TO BE IN THE FAIRLY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...SOME HEAVIER SNOW WITH RATES MORE THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...AND THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. The good news is that we'll have a good fetch for lake snows... somewhere between 280 - 300. 850's aren't impressive and the winds will be strong, but all other parameters look good. At least the ground will be whitened for a day or two behind the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Enjoy the WTOD and rain tonight. Here's what BUF is forecasting just up the shoreline in WNY - EXPECT THIS TO BE IN THE FAIRLY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...SOME HEAVIER SNOW WITH RATES MORE THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...AND THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. The good news is that we'll have a good fetch for lake snows... somewhere between 280 - 300. 850's aren't impressive and the winds will be strong, but all other parameters look good. At least the ground will be whitened for a day or two behind the storm. Lake effect definitely bears watching. It's always the consolation prize for a missed storm. Just as well that we don't have to deal with the borderline situation that will extend from Chicago to Detroit to Toronto. Once again it will play out on a weekend, which is nice. Perhaps there'll be something worthwhile to check out come Sunday. edit. I also see this thread has eclipsed the 1000 post count so will probably be locked later. We can probably transition this to a Northern Ohio winter obs/discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.