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The PHL/NYC Medium Range Thread - Part 2


am19psu

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The models are hinting at yet another potential system from the 1/18-1/20 time frame. This system looks to be more gulf based as a long wave trough travels eastward. Several pieces of energy are forecasted to dive south and rotate through the trough potentially spinning up yet another coastal or perhaps less organized areas of heavy preip. Some of the precip looks to potenially fall as heavy rain and with warmer temperatures, a pretty massive snowpack in most of the area and perhaps widespread heavy rain the potential will definitly exist for flooding.

Are some of the models are predicting heavy rain and warmth? I did not go over them yet but I was under the impression that it wasn't going to warm up that much.

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Are some of the models are predicting heavy rain and warmth? I did not go over them yet but I was under the impression that it wasn't going to warm up that much.

The pattern looks to have ridging along the east coast with a long wave trough progressing from west to east. At some point, the trough digs pretty far south and you can see energy building in TX. Reminds me of the Boxing day event. As multiple S/W's dive south into the trough a storm builds across the south and into the southeast and then eventually up the coast. Temp's out ahead look too warm for snow but the GEFS suggests snow north and west of I-95 with rain along the coast and possible ice between and in NE. Plenty of time to track this one but it looks like it will have plenty of energy to work with.

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In the medium range it sure does look like the PNA will be substituting for the NAO as the cold source. If the MJO holds, that will be a good pattern change indicator, if the PNA gets positive in spite of the MJO, well I should stick to 48hrs and in.

I noticed that about the mjo and almost posted something but decided not to as the models do seem to like a PNA. Someone on the Post website asked me for a long range forecast. lol, not something I'm ready to do except on a chat forum like this one.

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In the medium range it sure does look like the PNA will be substituting for the NAO as the cold source. If the MJO holds, that will be a good pattern change indicator, if the PNA gets positive in spite of the MJO, well I should stick to 48hrs and in.

I noticed that about the mjo and almost posted something but decided not to as the models do seem to like a PNA. Someone on the Post website asked me for a long range forecast. lol, not something I'm ready to do except on a chat forum like this one.

Clearly, I'm confused. The MJO will be heading into Phase 7 over the weekend/early next week. Shouldn't that favor a +PNA?

DJFPhase7.gif

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I noticed that about the mjo and almost posted something but decided not to as the models do seem to like a PNA. Someone on the Post website asked me for a long range forecast. lol, not something I'm ready to do except on a chat forum like this one.

Wes,

Thanks for your insights about yesterday, we did get some zr/ip along the coast and at the onset almost to phl.

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I think the next few days will be below normal than up to seasonable, we'll get a warm rainstorm on the 18-19 (maybe some flooding due to the snow pack- TBD) Then we're going to see another big arctic intrusion.

Dont think we will get a rainstorm next week maybe along the immediate coast but Inland will be snow and ice for at least part of the time depending on Track and how strong storm is..

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Right, but Tony and Wes made it sound like it would be going positive in spite of the MJO. That's that part I didn't follow, because I was thinking the MJO was forcing the pattern to the +PNA.

I thought it was in phase 5 so my mistake. I looked yesterday and thought I saw it there. Is that wrong? or is it in 5 and forecast to go to phase 7. If so, that would be consistent.

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I thought it was in phase 5 so my mistake. I looked yesterday and thought I saw it there. Is that wrong? or is it in 5 and forecast to go to phase 7. If so, that would be consistent.

Yeah, it's in 5, but should be in 7 in a week, according the ECM and the stat based stuff I've looked at.

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Stat-based Hovmoller: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovs/7.5S_7.5N/2011.png

That's new today, which shows a dampening of the MJO. As of yesterday, it brought it all the way to the date line.

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