Snow in the first week of November

[CoastalWx]

Cool thanks.

I'll let everyone know to expect heavy heavy snow 2 weeks from Monday.

Spread the word.

[Mr Torchey]

Spread the word.

good movie

[CoastalWx]

I think the bigger thing to take out of this is the cooler and/or stormier possibilities near Halloween or after. I wouldn't throw around the s-word. This means you....snowNH.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think the bigger thing to take out of this is the cooler and/or stormier possibilities near Halloween or after. I wouldn't throw around the s-word. This means you....snowNH.

I would given what I am seeing

[H2Otown_WX]

I would given what I am seeing

Wouldn't it take a -NAO for the ages to have a real snow threat this early?

[Damage In Tolland]

I would given what I am seeing

Well you also wore a shirt that said "I'm a meteorolgist" to a bar and tried to pick up chics

[CoastalWx]

I would given what I am seeing

I just mean more for widespread stuff. I alluded to higher elevation areas maybe seeing their first flakes.

[Ginx snewx]

Well you also wore a shirt that said "I'm a meteorolgist" to a bar and tried to pick up chics

[Typhoon Tip]

I just mean more for widespread stuff. I alluded to higher elevation areas maybe seeing their first flakes.

I agree - folks may or may not be aware that "snow in the first week of November" doesn't have to mean a 12" of unbelievablism.

Kevin's just jealous of my t-shirt

[HoarfrostHubb]

I agree - folks may or may not be aware that "snow in the first week of November" doesn't have to mean a 12" of unbelievablism.

Kevin's just jealous of my t-shirt

Didn't you or Will once post something about the 1st week of November hardly getting any snow? (vs late October or something)?

[Amped]

18z gfs crushes the MD and PA mountains at 312 hrs

[Typhoon Tip]

Didn't you or Will once post something about the 1st week of November hardly getting any snow? (vs late October or something)?

Nah, that wasn't me. Not sure about Will though.

There's nothing that important about that time of year Meteorologically other than the fact that it is on the warm side of the last month before the cold season formally starts - that alone would intuitively favor warm solutions. It would seem more likely that any such correlation is a randomly emerged behavior explained by noise/chance, and probablistically favored do to the former reason.

Obviously, I wouldn't trust these 300 and whatever hour visions of interior history; nor was that what I had in mind when I started this thread. I will say, however, there are still signals for cold anomalies nearing and post the 31st of the month - which at that time of year, that can mean snow. Let us recall just 2 years ago it snowed up to 3 or 4" above 1500' els, with an inch of glop on the valley floors on the 16th of October.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nah, that wasn't me. Not sure about Will though.

There's nothing that important about that time of year Meteorologically other than the fact that it is on the warm side of the last month before the cold season formally starts - that alone would intuitively favor warm solutions. It would seem more likely that any such correlation is a randomly emerged behavior explained by noise/chance, and probablistically favored do to the former reason.

Obviously, I wouldn't trust these 300 and whatever hour visions of interior history; nor was that what I had in mind when I started this thread. I will say, however, there are still signals for cold anomalies nearing and post the 31st of the month - which at that time of year, that can mean snow. Let us recall just 2 years ago it snowed up to 3 or 4" above 1500' els, with an inch of glop on the valley floors on the 16th of October.

I figured as much, just I recall someone mentioning something like that.

And I def. recall the 16th and 18th... got 2" here

[Typhoon Tip]

I figured as much, just I recall someone mentioning something like that.

And I def. recall the 16th and 18th... got 2" here

Operational Euro seems to be loading +PNAP related marginal cold into southern/SE Canada between D6-10. This could either be seasonally on time, or perhaps locking onto this signal. The Euro ensembles look chillier than their operational captain, toward the end and start loading a pattern more conducive to coastal chances, too. Interesting.

[toronto blizzard]

Operational Euro seems to be loading +PNAP related marginal cold into southern/SE Canada between D6-10. This could either be seasonally on time, or perhaps locking onto this signal. The Euro ensembles look chillier than their operational captain, toward the end and start loading a pattern more conducive to coastal chances, too. Interesting.

Do you know what pattern they have for NOvember for the east?

[Typhoon Tip]

Do you know what pattern they have for NOvember for the east?

I don't. Will or Scott have better eyes on that. This was regarding through about Nov 7. Not sure on November as a whole.

[toronto blizzard]

I don't. Will or Scott have better eyes on that. This was regarding through about Nov 7. Not sure on November as a whole.

So through Nov 7 the Euro ensembles have a trough in the east?

[dendrite]

So through Nov 7 the Euro ensembles have a trough in the east?

The ensembles don't go out that far. Scott described the Euro weeklies a few days ago in this post:

[Typhoon Tip]

Forget it folks!

Yuck - teleconnectors have been deconstructing this signal with a pinache that would make the hardiest of warmista's jealous. Complete and utter signal break-down and emerged reversal - now the advertisement would have to argue for above normalcy in temperatures until further notice.

It is interesting to see the ensemble move en masse that way.. The Euro cluster appears a little less enthused about breaking warm but they are flatting the western N/A component of the PNAP, so it may be inevitable. What verifies out of all this from about the 28th to the 10th will probably come down to amusing to say the least. .

[Damage In Tolland]

Forget it folks!

Yuck - teleconnectors have been deconstructing this signal with a pinache that would make the hardiest of warmista's jealous. Complete and utter signal break-down and emerged reversal - now the advertisement would have to argue for above normalcy in temperatures until further notice.

It is interesting to see the ensemble move en masse that way.. The Euro cluster appears a little less enthused about breaking warm but they are flatting the western N/A component of the PNAP, so it may be inevitable. What verifies out of all this from about the 28th to the 10th will probably come down to amusing to say the least. .

AMOUT

[Amped]

Forget it folks!

Yuck - teleconnectors have been deconstructing this signal with a pinache that would make the hardiest of warmista's jealous. Complete and utter signal break-down and emerged reversal - now the advertisement would have to argue for above normalcy in temperatures until further notice.

It is interesting to see the ensemble move en masse that way.. The Euro cluster appears a little less enthused about breaking warm but they are flatting the western N/A component of the PNAP, so it may be inevitable. What verifies out of all this from about the 28th to the 10th will probably come down to amusing to say the least. .

26-29th would be when something happens. The flow deamplifies the first week in November. So if you just pull the old met verification trick of shifting your timeframe you should be okay. It may not be a lot of snow but Northern New england should see something

[ORH_wxman]

26-29th would be when something happens. The flow deamplifies the first week in November. So if you just pull the old met verification trick of shifting your timeframe you should be okay. It may not be a lot of snow but Northern New england should see something

Thanks Pertubation3.

[Typhoon Tip]

Somewhat interesting to me... The overnight computations seemed to have returned (albeit subtle for the time being) on cold loading signals into the 50-55N region of central/eastern Canada over the last week of this month. Haven't seen the Euro ensembles, and I disagree that the GFS ensembles are useless.

That said, the CDC agency has neutralized the NAO and even found perhaps -.25 SD values persisting as we close out the month. The CPC is less coherent at week 2, but that is usually the case from that source. The operational runs of the GFS shows some tendency for height growth in the 60-70N region of the D. Straight heading toward D10, and that would tend to lower the escape latitude of the westerlies along the eastern seaboard of N/A in time. The ECM doesn't agree, but, the ECM is really no better or worse than the GFS at and beyond D5 as of last check.

Incidentally, the 06z operational GFS strengthens the mean polar boundary from MV to NW New England with some 7 dm of thickness packing across perhaps 3 or 400 miles, particularly across the Lakes and SE Canada, as near by as D6.5. It runs a wave up along the boundary and would bring snow to areas of Ontario should that pan out as is... Interesting and not far away from New England at all as far as the Meteorological crow flies. 522-534dm thickness has spread over much of the Canadian shield just NW of this axis.

It is possible that I have given up on this signal too quickly... Lord knows that during the autumn and spring, the teleconnectors can at times show increased stochastic output - albeit less variant compared to their operational members, do to the weight of having so many ensemble members creating a mean. It just takes a little longer than an operational run to move an ensemble mean up and down. We'll see how things go.

[CoastalWx]

Somewhat interesting to me... The overnight computations seemed to have returned (albeit subtle for the time being) on cold loading signals into the 50-55N region of central/eastern Canada over the last week of this month. Haven't seen the Euro ensembles, and I disagree that the GFS ensembles are useless.

That said, the CDC agency has neutralized the NAO and even found perhaps -.25 SD values persisting as we close out the month. The CPC is less coherent at week 2, but that is usually the case from that source. The operational runs of the GFS shows some tendency for height growth in the 60-70N region of the D. Straight heading toward D10, and that would tend to lower the escape latitude of the westerlies along the eastern seaboard of N/A in time. The ECM doesn't agree, but, the ECM is really no better or worse than the GFS at and beyond D5 as of last check.

Incidentally, the 06z operational GFS strengthens the mean polar boundary from MV to NW New England with some 7 dm of thickness packing across perhaps 3 or 400 miles, particularly across the Lakes and SE Canada, as near by as D6.5. It runs a wave up along the boundary and would bring snow to areas of Ontario should that pan out as is... Interesting and not far away from New England at all as far as the Meteorological crow flies. 522-534dm thickness has spread over much of the Canadian shield just NW of this axis.

It is possible that I have given up on this signal too quickly... Lord knows that during the autumn and spring, the teleconnectors can at times show increased stochastic output - albeit less variant compared to their operational members, do to the weight of having so many ensemble members creating a mean. It just takes a little longer than an operational run to move an ensemble mean up and down. We'll see how things go.

The pattern as a whole doesn't fit the teleconnections that we know it. If you look at the height fields you can see it. Thanks to some ridging out west and a Scandinavian block that is pointing to Greenland, a trough does descend into the eastern US. There is also a split flow look to the pattern with some ridging in western Canada (albeit weak) and some sort of a cut off low to the sw of California. So enough for a change to more cooler wx, but is it stable?? I don't know. The NAO does try to go more + and the PNA tries going - again during the first week of Novie on the euro ensembles.

[Damage In Tolland]

As many of us have said...teleconnections cannot be used to forecast wx in the spring or the fall. That is fact

[snowNH]

As many of us have said...teleconnections cannot be used to forecast wx in the spring or the fall. That is fact

Most of the time

[Typhoon Tip]

As many of us have said...teleconnections cannot be used to forecast wx in the spring or the fall. That is fact

There is no such fact.

[Damage In Tolland]

There is no such fact.

Yes son..yes there is

Facts are facts

The Facts of Life

Face the Facts

Actual factual

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yes son..yes there is

Facts are facts

The Facts of Life

Face the Facts

Actual factual

You take the good

You take the bad

And then you have

The facts of life

The facts of life

[40/70 Benchmark]

18z gfs crushes the MD and PA mountains at 312 hrs

UP ALL NIGHT