Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 East Coast sure. New England, never. Anything that threatens the east coast certainly has a chance of hitting NEw England whether it's a scrape. remnants or whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Anything that threatens the east coast certainly has a chance of hitting NEw England whether it's a scrape. remnants or whatever Depends on the pattern. With the remnants of Lee just spinning around the midwest like it is currently modeled, nothing will hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Depends on the pattern. With the remnants of Lee just spinning around the midwest like it is currently modeled, nothing will hit us. Lee will be long gone by the time Maria threatens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Lee will be long gone by the time Maria threatens Yep, what will matter is Nate, watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 East Coast sure. New England, never. pretty absolute statement Bob this far out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Not going to get a 'Cane up into New England with that 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 If we get rid of that huge U-shaped trough over Canada there are possibilities. As modeled, very little chance of anything up here. Euro shows a hurricane sitting off of NC.. pretty good start right there.. closer than it ever showed katia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 pretty absolute statement Bob this far out.... Looks similar to Irene's track on that 240 euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Not going to get a 'Cane up into New England with that 500mb pattern. That's very close guys , that's a NNE movement with high heights in EC, if the Euro is right.That is not a terrible 5 H pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 That's very close guys , that's a NNE movement with high heights in EC, if the Euro is right.That is not a terrible 5 H pattern. We're all a bunch of weenies for analyzing a 500mb pattern 10 days out, but it looks to me as if it would peel off to the NE around the Atl ridge and SE of the ridging across NE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 We're all a bunch of weenies for analyzing a 500mb pattern 10 days out, but it looks to me as if it would peel off to the NE around the Atl ridge and SE of the ridging across NE Canada. Very very true, for something that will change 25 times, just something to talk about, 2 per hour rain band here, at work. .20 in new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 As with Irene I think.. its much easier(less painful ) to start with a landfalling hurricane on the EC and have it trend towards NE rather than have it fieldgoal now on all models and trend westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 I kinda have a feeling this year is like 54 or 55 will multiple tropical systems in NE. Certainly seems like the right pattern for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I kinda have a feeling this year is like 54 or 55 will multiple tropical systems in NE. Certainly seems like the right pattern for it. I don't think the pattern looks that good for a landfall here. A broad trough to our north sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 I don't think the pattern looks that good for a landfall here. A broad trough to our north sucks. It can always change I guess, but we could see something like a LFing storm in SC then a recurve with remnants hitting NE right? At this point heavy rainfall is probably just as damaging as wind. Irene's pattern must of changed a lot on the models from 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 I know its the NAM.. but it looks like it really ramps up the storm at 84h.. Also, I noticed a piece of energy is diving down in W Canada at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I don't think the pattern looks that good for a landfall here. A broad trough to our north sucks. at 240?. Euro shows a 1030 High in Eastern canada not that it matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Looks like NHC is going for a recurve at a tropical storm in the 5PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 at 240?. Euro shows a 1030 High in Eastern canada not that it matters Why you looking at the sfc? This doesn't look like a good pattern for a hit, but maybe it will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Why you looking at the sfc? This doesn't look like a good pattern for a hit, but maybe it will change Just looked to me like that trough was lifting out high building, squeezing any trop system west but nbd probably won't be anything there anyway. The year of the tropical storm not cane continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Just looked to me like that trough was lifting out high building, squeezing any trop system west but nbd probably won't be anything there anyway. The year of the tropical storm not cane continues. Two majors? It could be the year of the non-tropical storm as well The way I look at it is a huge boring wx killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Two majors? In the Ocean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Actually looks like a pretty decent trough on the 18z GFS around hours 168-180. Gonna be interesting if that can dig a bit more/Getting Maria a bit west. Anywho.. something to watch and waste another week on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Is this thread for real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 I kinda have a feeling this year is like 54 or 55 will multiple tropical systems in NE. Certainly seems like the right pattern for it. Maybe if all of the weenies in the world wishcast together at once it can come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Is this thread for real? why? it's a thread for tracking a tropical system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 why? it's a thread for tracking a tropical system... Look at the time frame though. Its like making a thread for a snowstorm at 264 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Maybe if all of the weenies in the world wishcast together at once it can come true. I wish..I wish..upon a fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 why? it's a thread for tracking a tropical system... Like Will said it's kind of ridiculous given the time frame and the fact the pattern doesn't look favorable. There's really no need to track every single invest/depression in the Carib/Atl on this subforum...especially those south of 15N. It's probably better to just discuss it in the main forum thread at this point.We get one neutered 'cane and I guess New England is suddenly a hot bed for tropical landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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