skierinvermont Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is about the best euro solution I could have expected. Why do you say that? Doesn't it take it over a lot of land now and then up to or west of NYC I'm guessing? I'd rather verbatim it hit BDR or HVN which still leaves plenty of room for an east trend. I don't care if it hits me here or if it hits the cape .. as long as it doesn't miss or hit NC/NJ instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Euro is straight up Chesepeake lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is about the best euro solution I could have expected. I saw the GFDL, and that basically tracks straight up over the Chesapeake and Baltimore, maintaining Cat 1 strength into PA....I'm assuming the Euro is further east than that? Also, at what point do you guys start to worry about it being top far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is about the best euro solution I could have expected. Agreed, Glad it stayed west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Why do you say that? Doesn't it take it over a lot of land now? The consensus is still east. Given the Euro synoptics it seems too far west to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is extremely west, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Philly and LC FTW??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Delaware River Destroyer on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The consensus is still east. Given the Euro synoptics it seems too far west to me Euro has been the most west the entire time...I think its ok that its pretty far west right now. We know these thing love to go east...but if it keeps going west over the next 2-3 cycles, then we have a problem with expecting an SNE landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 not that this is relative to NE...but there is only one bridge that accesses Paris Island, and it was being talked about on the news, that in general, it was in poor condition....and after the earthquake, they have structural engineers inspecting the entire bridge to make sure it wasn't weakened and will be able to handle a hurricane evacuation...i was just thinking about that since the track is still trending west... i mean, the latest euro track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just east of BGM..lol. Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Euro has been the most west the entire time...I think its ok that its pretty far west right now. We know these thing love to go east...but if it keeps going west over the next 2-3 cycles, then we have a problem with expecting an SNE landfall. Lol...I've been watching these for years, and wouldn't it be ironic after just about everything missing east, in the end, this would miss west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just east of BGM..lol. Seriously? I would actually feel pretty comfortable betting my life that the Euro is too far west on this one, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I would actually feel pretty comfortable betting my life that the Euro is too far west on this one, lol. I see what it's doing synoptically with a weaker trough to the north and a stronger and retrograding N Atl ridge but I doubt we're going to get a TC to move NNW at 40N with that synoptic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I see what it's doing synoptically with a weaker trough to the north and a stronger and retrograding N Atl ridge but I doubt we're going to get a TC to move NNW at 40N with that synoptic pattern. Agreed. I do not think we've ever seen a TC at those latitude move W of due N without a very deep trough phasing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I would actually feel pretty comfortable betting my life that the Euro is too far west on this one, lol. That's just nuts. It just looks awfully weird, but I'm sure some storm in the early 1800s did just that...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Agreed. I do not think we've ever seen a TC at those latitude move W of due N without a very deep trough phasing it. In the end this is the kind of fantasy 96 hour solution that shows a landfall near HYA we all get excited for and it winds up being 50-75 miles east of the BM. I think the same will happen with this one... just instead of HYA we're using BGM as our benchmark lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It does seem weird for a hurricane to move W of north without a neg trough. But what I don't understand is why the Euro doesn't also know that that is weird. How can the Euro which is really good with synoptics be underdoing the westerlies that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This thing is supposed to be turned north by now isn't it? It just keeps plugging along at like 310 degrees..... It does seem weird for a hurricane to move W of north without a neg trough. But what I don't understand is why the Euro doesn't also know that that is weird. How can the Euro which is really good with synoptics be underdoing the westerlies that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 In the end this is the kind of fantasy 96 hour solution that shows a landfall near HYA we all get excited for and it winds up being 50-75 miles east of the BM. I think the same will happen with this one... just instead of HYA we're using BGM as our benchmark lol It's bascially the ridge doing all the work, but have we ever seen that happen? I dunno...maybe sample size says we haven't seen enough examples, but The final 48 hrs have thrown some tricks at us for sure, regarding east ticks. Maybe this one says FU to all the stereotypes we have? Euro is so far west, but I would bet it's all by itself for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12Z 8/24 vs. 0Z 8/25: 12Z 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 There's no way the subways could function if the 0z GFS were to verify; 9-10" rain plus the storm surge up the Hudson River would be devastating for Manhattan. The MTA frequently uses pumps to remove water from the underground, but I'd assume the GFS would flood quite a few of Manhattan's streets and basements, not just the obviously vulnerable subway system. The problem is that we don't have a typical Northeast hurricane scenario in which the TC's path is determined mostly by the westerlies. It seems that in most cases, the westerlies either force the storm out to sea (Earl) or a negatively tilted trough slings the hurricane back towards the East Coast as was the case with Hurricane Hazel in October 1954, which did a massive amount of damage to the Carolinas and even affected places as far as Toronto. In this case, however, the storm seems to miss most of the interactions with pieces of energy to the north; we have a strong northern stream impulse tomorrow/early Friday, but that's when Irene is still at the same latitude as Florida. It manages to move up the coast at the same time the Atlantic ridge is reasserting itself, and before the next northern stream shortwave arrives. Thus, Irene may be doing more meandering on its own as opposed to the typical recurve vs. sling interaction with the westerlies to which we've become accustomed. I think everything here gets shut down regardless of whether the storm center is 50 miles east or west of here-- the city has water on both sides, and either way we're looking at inundation. BTW the new Euro is even further west-- west of Philly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Second earthquake in Virginia....4.5 There was a 5.8 earthquake a week and a half before the 1944 hurricane too-- it was NYS largest earthquake on record and there was a large area in which people felt it.... just like the last one. Interesting coincidence lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's bascially the ridge doing all the work, but have we ever seen that happen? I dunno...maybe sample size says we haven't seen enough examples, but The final 48 hrs have thrown some tricks at us for sure, regarding east ticks. Maybe this one says FU to all the stereotypes we have? Euro is so far west, but I would bet it's all by itself for now. We've seen it happen, but the analogs are all pretty old. Then again, the analogs for last winter were all old too lol. This actually happened a few times in the 1800s (like half a dozen times from what I can see scanning through old records.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This thing is supposed to be turned north by now isn't it? It just keeps plugging along at like 310 degrees..... Yes that's the other thing that worries me.. that this isn't just model waffling and is a response to the hurricane moving SW of where it was supposed to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It does seem weird for a hurricane to move W of north without a neg trough. But what I don't understand is why the Euro doesn't also know that that is weird. How can the Euro which is really good with synoptics be underdoing the westerlies that much? It sounds to me that it might be overdoing the phasing with the trough. I don't think this is a deep enough of a trough or negatively tilted enough to allow for essentially a full phase like it's actually showing. But I guess the W ATL ridge just gives it the extra nudge and shoves it into the trough? I still do find that a bit odd that the W ATL ridge can do all of that essentially all by itself. It'll have a strong influence for sure, but I'd think at some point that the trough would act to try and push this thing east of north since it's not strong enough to suck it in...at that point it becomes a battle of trough vs ridge, and then it'd make more sense for a Long Island landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It sounds to me that it might be overdoing the phasing with the trough. I don't think this is a deep enough of a trough or negatively tilted enough to allow for essentially a full phase like it's actually showing. But I guess the W ATL ridge just gives it the extra nudge and shoves it into the trough? I still do find that a bit odd that the W ATL ridge can do all of that essentially all by itself. It'll have a strong influence for sure, but I'd think at some point that the trough would act to try and push this thing east of north since it's not strong enough to suck it in...at that point it becomes a battle of trough vs ridge, and then it'd make more sense for a Long Island landfall... With how far west the models have gone, even if they do trend east at the end, I doubt the landfall will be any further to the east than the Nassau Suffolk border-- and probably further west than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well I was hoping for a huge shift east.,,but farther west would be ok too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Early cycle shifted west... consensus scrapes NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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