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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Well that's a pretty map. :devilsmiley:

it's even a bit negative tilt as it passes. but the center of ivan passed almost right over the area i think.. not sure. hurricanes don't necessarily follow the placement rules you'd see with a regular storm threat around here. either way if that map verified we'd get a watch im sure...

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it's even a bit negative tilt as it passes. but the center of ivan passed almost right over the area i think.. not sure. hurricanes don't necessarily follow the placement rules you'd see with a regular storm threat around here. either way if that map verified we'd get a watch im sure...

Still I think it would be fun to have a E coast threat instead of a Gulf threat but the models seem to be getting a bit more certain about the C or E gulf.

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Still I think it would be fun to have a E coast threat instead of a Gulf threat but the models seem to be getting a bit more certain about the C or E gulf.

yeah.. tho as far as getting remnants go this might be a better way to go if it's really c/e gulf. something tells me there will be at least another after to follow to.

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...just give me something to chase already....DAMN IT.

With the models...I tend to favor when there is a western trend. Just seems for the past three years or more, that storm tracks tend to go west of the forecasted track 3/4s of the time. This might be a tricky one to decide on a chase since the various factors (mountains, tracks, SSTs) vary a bit and may not justify a chase.

I guess I'd consider it more if I could find a chase partner with a pretty relaxed schedule to share chase costs with (gas, lodging, etc.). I'm a little gun shy after chasing this spring in the west...and it ended up being the wrong time to go (flexibility was non-existent though). I've got enough for two chases...three if we see more E.Coast options...but I really don't want to spend the money...since it's coming from my reserves more than from income.

At least the convection back into central Africa is looking a little better for more of a parade of storms....although I need to find more met. data to get a better picture.

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The chance of getting home damage is minimal enough to not think about it IMO.

Yeah. As a home owner, I don't worry much about home damage. It's a fairly small risk. That said, as a Montgomery Country resident, I worry a lot about power outages, especially in very cold weather. With very young children at home, that can quickly become a dangerous situation. That said, it doesn't make me root against weather, but it definitely dampens my enthusiasm.

i can already picture me and zwyts heading to alexandria like with fay to see 10 mph winds

Sounds more successful than Josh's Dan chase...

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Yeah. As a home owner, I don't worry much about home damage. It's a fairly small risk. That said, as a Montgomery Country resident, I worry a lot about power outages, especially in very cold weather. With very young children at home, that can quickly become a dangerous situation. That said, it doesn't make me root against weather, but it definitely dampens my enthusiasm.

I've not lost power here for more than a few minutes .. actually at any place I've lived in DC, so not a huge concern for me. I can understand that though. Still in the grand scheme the chances are somewhat low. I'll take any extreme though.. if it's something beyond my complexes control re power etc so be it. ;)

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I'd want to this thing to the west on modeling up here. While I think the models may end up at least a smidge too right in the tropics (see if it keeps it from the islands etc), they may be too left up here. If anything I'd expect them to try to target the eastern edges of what we've seen if not even show an offshore track etc.

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I've not lost power here for more than a few minutes .. actually at any place I've lived in DC, so not a huge concern for me. I can understand that though. Still in the grand scheme the chances are somewhat low. I'll take any extreme though.. if it's something beyond my complexes control re power etc so be it. ;)

From Feb '10 to Feb '11, our power was out for an aggregate total of 13.5 days, 6 of which were in freezing cold, and 4 of which were in stifling heat. Before having a kid, I would have viewed that as a minor annoyance that was more than outweighed by enjoying a storm. Now, not so much...

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LWX PM discussion

WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH

TRACK A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES TOWARD

FL AND UP THE ERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO HAVE

MUCH CERTAINTY OF TRACK 7-8 DAYS OUT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR

THE TRENDS IN GUIDANCE.

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Ian, please PLEASE tell me that wasn't you that just posted the 126hr GFDL on the Capital Weather Gang's FB page.

Heh.. Naa. I try to shut weenies up, not get them excited. ;) Tho I do like a Gulf scenario in some fashion.

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