wxsmwhrms Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 In my amateur opinion, the only way it could make it to Texas (what I want, a landfall South of Matagorda that relieves the drought) after looking at the 7 and 8 day Euro ensemble means on Alan's page is the trough is strong enough to pull it Northward to the latitude of South Texas in the Gulf but leaves it behind to maybe head West under the ridging, maybe beta balancing flow that might be a bit North of due East below and East of the high. Not impossible, but seems rather unlikely. Agree, and I was actually going to put in my post that it would probably take some sort of a stall somewhere along the later part of a path to make a TX landfall happen, but like you it just seems to me like a TX landfall seems a very low probability occurrence right now. The overall pattern seems fairly well agreed upon by all the models - but given we don't have a system yet and we're still talking 7+ days away still time for some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Don't recall seeing the tropical update link on the NWS Mobile site until a few minutes ago. Has a lot of good links on it too. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/?n=tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like the dry air is beginning to abate around 97L. Still some SW of it and a little sliver NW but the overall environment looks to be getting rapidly more conducive WV wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 If this verifies and there is more ridging in the west and troughing in the northern tier of the country, would that tend to lead to more ridging over the eastern US? Would that shift the focus of landfall toward the central and western GOM versus the eastern GOM and SE USA? No it would lead to more troughing in the GL or northeast like Adam said, but obviously the placement and depth of the trough will have a say as to where it goes. I merely presented it as a food for thought thing, because I found it rather interesting, and it doesn't necessarily have to apply to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 GEM definitely an interesting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Did the trough miss 97L on the CMC? cause that looks like its headed toward Mexico/S TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Did the trough miss 97L on the CMC? cause that looks like its headed toward Mexico/S TX It's a weird run, initialization begins at around 12N even though the LLC is most likely around 15N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's a weird run, initialization begins at around 12N even though the LLC is most likely around 15N. Its a weird run but if you look at the vis floater loop, and look at the area of greatest low level vorticity in the low cloud elements, the center is NOT at 15ºN, in my amateur opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Its a weird run but if you look at the vis floater loop, and look at the area of greatest low level vorticity in the low cloud elements, the center is NOT at 15ºN, in my amateur opinion. Until this thing is developed and we get a good initialization point, It's pretty hard to trust the models about landfall location.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like a few different things on the GEM. The storm obviously is farther south early on, thus goes farther south through Caribbean. And the eastern trough looks weaker, thus allowing it to escape even farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Its a weird run but if you look at the vis floater loop, and look at the area of greatest low level vorticity in the low cloud elements, the center is NOT at 15ºN, in my amateur opinion. I agree but it is such a broad circulation, a center reformation would be completely possible. I'm wondering how the euro takes 97L into NE Puerto Rico and maybe it's because of a center reformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Until this thing is developed and we get a good initialization point, It's pretty hard to trust the models about landfall location.... Over a week away, I still would not trust models too much even if it was a TD / TS already. But yeah this makes the level of trust even less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 On the local forecast for the Weather Channel, they have circled next Thursday in red and it says "Watching The Tropics". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The 12z Euro should be coming around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The 12z Euro should be coming around... Setup looks like it is bound for the GOM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 What is that? Which low-level center should we be looking at? The one over Hispaniola has the lowest pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Decent ensemble support, and for extra low resolution, looks like 8 peturbations were sub 996 mb, which is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 So between Mexico and the west coast of Florida, wide range still. Still fun watching the models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Euro to 132, over Hispaniola as a weak low, then over or just just south of Cuba, intensifying a tad. Northern trough a bit weaker than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Euro to 132, over Hispaniola as a weak low, then over or just just south of Cuba, intensifying a tad. Northern trough a bit weaker than last run wonder if we'll see the Euro strengthen the northern trough tonight and send 97L east of FL again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 wonder if we'll see the Euro strengthen the northern trough tonight and send 97L east of FL again. Speaking of trends, how does the 12z Euro compare to yesterday's 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Aiming at Miami southern tip of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks pretty much like southern florida .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks pretty much like southern florida .... Yep. Across Cuba and into south FL from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 European model shows a tropical storm near Miami...on to the next run =/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Oh lawd, three tropical systems in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The models still have no clear idea about this, but the east trend has certainly been halted for now. To me the first question that needs to be answered is will this hit Hispaniola? A lot of the guidance says yes. This needs to stay weak so it can stay south of that storm shredder. Also if it stays south it will likely come into the GOM. This one is a fun one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Obviously not as strong on the trough as last nights ECM run but if memory serves me correctly...last night it also took it towards southern Fl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yep. Across Cuba and into south FL from the south. If that track were to hold, I couldn't see the storm being at hurricane strength at USA landfall. It's near or over all of hispaniola as well as Cuba. Lots of rain for those who may need it though in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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