Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


Recommended Posts

In my amateur opinion, the only way it could make it to Texas (what I want, a landfall South of Matagorda that relieves the drought) after looking at the 7 and 8 day Euro ensemble means on Alan's page is the trough is strong enough to pull it Northward to the latitude of South Texas in the Gulf but leaves it behind to maybe head West under the ridging, maybe beta balancing flow that might be a bit North of due East below and East of the high. Not impossible, but seems rather unlikely.

Agree, and I was actually going to put in my post that it would probably take some sort of a stall somewhere along the later part of a path to make a TX landfall happen, but like you it just seems to me like a TX landfall seems a very low probability occurrence right now. The overall pattern seems fairly well agreed upon by all the models - but given we don't have a system yet and we're still talking 7+ days away still time for some changes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

If this verifies and there is more ridging in the west and troughing in the northern tier of the country, would that tend to lead to more ridging over the eastern US? Would that shift the focus of landfall toward the central and western GOM versus the eastern GOM and SE USA?

No it would lead to more troughing in the GL or northeast like Adam said, but obviously the placement and depth of the trough will have a say as to where it goes. I merely presented it as a food for thought thing, because I found it rather interesting, and it doesn't necessarily have to apply to this storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a weird run, initialization begins at around 12N even though the LLC is most likely around 15N.

Its a weird run but if you look at the vis floater loop, and look at the area of greatest low level vorticity in the low cloud elements, the center is NOT at 15ºN, in my amateur opinion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its a weird run but if you look at the vis floater loop, and look at the area of greatest low level vorticity in the low cloud elements, the center is NOT at 15ºN, in my amateur opinion.

Until this thing is developed and we get a good initialization point, It's pretty hard to trust the models about landfall location....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a few different things on the GEM. The storm obviously is farther south early on, thus goes farther south through Caribbean. And the eastern trough looks weaker, thus allowing it to escape even farther west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its a weird run but if you look at the vis floater loop, and look at the area of greatest low level vorticity in the low cloud elements, the center is NOT at 15ºN, in my amateur opinion.

I agree but it is such a broad circulation, a center reformation would be completely possible. I'm wondering how the euro takes 97L into NE Puerto Rico and maybe it's because of a center reformation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Until this thing is developed and we get a good initialization point, It's pretty hard to trust the models about landfall location....

Over a week away, I still would not trust models too much even if it was a TD / TS already. But yeah this makes the level of trust even less.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The models still have no clear idea about this, but the east trend has certainly been halted for now. To me the first question that needs to be answered is will this hit Hispaniola? A lot of the guidance says yes. This needs to stay weak so it can stay south of that storm shredder. Also if it stays south it will likely come into the GOM. This one is a fun one to watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...