tornadotony Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 If this is really such a backbreaking issue, perhaps there should just be a Tropical Models thread, much like the regional ones for winter, so that folks can discuss each model run as they wish while keeping system threads and the overall discussion thread clean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Until the Global models can resolve the mid-latitude flow these flip-flops may continue- is this shift east a burp or a real trend? I for one never really bought into it going as far east as TX or even LA, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 My only issue was.... if you're going to single someone out for causing a degradation of the thread and discussion.... single out the people that are causing the true disruption. That is all. Did I say it was going to happen??? No.... I didn't know saying what one model was doing or showed was hurting a thread and hurting the discussion. Next time know who you are calling out and try to find the people who don't contribute a damn thing to this forum.I post a few maps from a select model run and this happens. Just as hostile in the EC coast threads if your winter storm doesn't pan out I'm sorry that it looked like I was singling you out Thundersnow12. I just wanted to bring up again how posting maps beyond the truncation of a model run don't really add much value to the discussion. If a nor'easter or severe weather outbreak was being progged from the GFS 240 hours out would you start micro-analyzing it to death? I know there have been plenty of others that have not added much value to the discussion, but that doesn't make your post any better. If you guys want to continue this discussion further, I'd be happy to do so in off-topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Until the Global models can resolve the mid-latitude flow these flip-flops may continue- is this shift east a burp or a real trend? I for one never really bought into it going as far east as TX or even LA, but we shall see. You mean W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Until the Global models can resolve the mid-latitude flow these flip-flops may continue- is this shift east a burp or a real trend? I for one never really bought into it going as far east as TX or even LA, but we shall see. I think a US landfall is fairly high given the troughing position over the GL. If it trends well east with that trough, then we can think about it recurving and missing, but otherwise, assuming the storm actually exists and is strong enough to withstand island impacts, I'd think we have to watch it closely and the question will be more where it makes landfall and not if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I'm sorry that it looked like I was singling you out Thundersnow12. I just wanted to bring up again how posting maps beyond the truncation of a model run don't really add much value to the discussion. If a nor'easter or severe weather outbreak was being progged from the GFS 240 hours out would you start micro-analyzing it to death? I know there have been plenty of others that have not added much value to the discussion, but that doesn't make your post any better. If you guys want to continue this discussion further, I'd be happy to do so in off-topic. See my previous post on this matter. I do not think its worth harping over, but I agree partially with what you said. But I do not think his intentions were bad...I think we can agree to not microanalyze a model run that far out unless its in another sub-thread (i.e. like Josh's chase thread or something similar). http://www.americanw...post__p__891531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 See my previous post on this matter. I do not think its worth harping over, but I agree partially with what you said. But I do not think his intentions were bad...I think we can agree to not microanalyze a model run that far out unless its in another sub-thread (i.e. like Josh's chase thread or something similar). http://www.americanw...post__p__891531 Agreed, except I don't want my chase thread being the repository for 384-hr model runs, either. That thread has a very specific scope and purpose, and it's definitely not a model-analysis thread. It's really just for chase-specific stuff: equipment and calibration, logistical planning, and occasional, sparing model discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 See my previous post on this matter. I do not think its worth harping over, but I agree partially with what you said. But I do not think his intentions were bad...I think we can agree to not microanalyze a model run that far out unless its in another sub-thread (i.e. like Josh's chase thread or something similar). http://www.americanw...post__p__891531 Yea I'm sorry for making a big deal about this now. All I wanted to state was that posting GFS model runs beyond 192 hours don't hold much value. I should have left it at that. I think we are all pretty hyped up about a tropical cyclone having a potential impact on the US coastline and I'm certainly not trying to squash anyone's enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Agreed, except I don't want my chase thread being the repository for 384-hr model runs, either. That thread has a very specific scope and purpose, and it's definitely not a model-analysis thread. It's really just for chase-specific stuff: equipment and calibration, logistical planning, and occasional, sparing model discussion. Well I think that goes without saying...nobody in their right mind would post a 384hr model solution as advice for you chasing...but I do think its not bad to post a 120 hour run of the ECMWF and say "hey it looks like it might be zoning in on this location...we'll see how the other models respond"....maybe a little more leeway in discussing model runs. I was more using it as an excuse that its okay to go a bit more off topic in a thread like that (provided the thread starter and participants doesn't mind too much) versus a thread like this which should be purely about this threat and the objective specifics regarding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 You mean W? Yes, I am dyslexic sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Well I think that goes without saying...nobody in their right mind would post a 384hr model solution as advice for you chasing...but I do think its not bad to post a 120 hour run of the ECMWF and say "hey it looks like it might be zoning in on this location...we'll see how the other models respond"....maybe a little more leeway in discussing model runs. I was more using it as an excuse that its okay to go a bit more off topic in a thread like that (provided the thread starter and participants doesn't mind too much) versus a thread like this which should be purely about this threat and the objective specifics regarding it. OK, gotcha. Yes, I am dyslexic sometimes How come you're so skeptical Re: a W-Gulf solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 How come you're so skeptical Re: a W-Gulf solution? I think we all should based on the trough deepening on later model runs. But it doesn't mean that a gulf solution is bad given the time frame. I agree we shouldn't discount it, but I can see a good reason on being skeptical about it...a SE US landfall is very viable given the latest solutions of seeing a further deepening of the trough in the central U.S. Its far out enough though that we should skeptical of most solutions....I think landfall pct is pretty high but the trough deepening creates serious doubt in a gulf solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 OK, gotcha. How come you're so skeptical Re: a W-Gulf solution? Because a trough would have to dig pretty far west in the CONUS- we will still basically have a mean trough in the eastern 1/2 of NOAM which should steer this north once it gets near Cuba. FL still seems to be the most likely target IMHO. Now if it stays really weak than maybe it can sneak into the central or western GOM, have not ruled that out entirely, I just think it is the least likely scenario. They finally ran the GFDL and HWRF on this system and the difference is comical at 126- the GFDL has a broad 1007MB low somewhere near Jamaica, the HWRF a 946MB hurricane north of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Ha ha ha, there's so little clarity at this point. Still a big toss-up. I can't wait until this has a closed circulation and a distinct center, so we can start seeing model runs that are something more meaningful than wet spaghetti thrown at a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Ha ha ha, there's so little clarity at this point. Still a big toss-up. I can't wait until this has a closed circulation and a distinct center, so we can start seeing model runs that are something more meaningful than wet spaghetti thrown at a wall. For all we know this could be Emily part deux or a TD 8 part deux (but with a larger circulation). Definitely is of interest to the US but it's gotta get its act together first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 EC ensembles still look like it takes 97L into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The ensembles are actually in fairly close agreement and suggest the Islands of Hispaniola and Cuba may well come into play. We are still a couple of days out regarding any real development, so speculation re: intensity is a crap shoot at best. What is interesting and has evolved over the past several days with both the operational and ensemble guidance is a break in the ridge that has plagued the Southern Plains since late May. 97L is still contending with dry air and that issue will need to be ironed out before TC genesis can occur, IMO... HPC: IN THE TROPICS...STILL MONITORING ANY NEW OBSERVATIONAL AND/OR MODEL TRENDS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS WITH AN EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS AGREED UPON BY THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH THE MODELS AGREEING THAT THE WAVE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES CUBA AROUND DAY 6/THU. BASED ON THE LATEST COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NHC FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...WILL USE THE SAME POINTS THEN EXTRAPOLATE NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR FLORIDA FOR THE NEW DAY 7 POINT. STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO CONSIDER WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS ALONG WITH ANY TERRAIN INTERACTION IF THE WAVE TRACKS OVER ANY OF THE LARGER ISLANDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 As Josh said, we need to wait awhile yet for more clarity. First, we just need this to actually form and not be an Emily / TD 8 redux. I still think the pattern should be better for this one down the road, but not for the next 2-3 days in all likelihood. Track is up for grabs, which obviously could include major disruption from Hispaniola and / or Cuba. Models are back to a stronger Midwest / GL trough late next week, but had been weakening it prior to the last few runs. My personal view is that the eastern half of the Gulf is just as likely as the Southeast, with somewhere in Florida seemingly the most likely, if you put a gun to my head and asked me. But this is all very low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 As Josh said, we need to wait awhile yet for more clarity. First, we just need this to actually form and not be an Emily / TD 8 redux. I still think the pattern should be better for this one down the road, but not for the next 2-3 days in all likelihood. Track is up for grabs, which obviously could include major disruption from Hispaniola and / or Cuba. Models are back to a stronger Midwest / GL trough late next week, but had been weakening it prior to the last few runs. My personal view is that the eastern half of the Gulf is just as likely as the Southeast, with somewhere in Florida seemingly the most likely, if you put a gun to my head and asked me. But this is all very low confidence. ThE EC ensembles look like they have a similar height pattern aloft, as compared to the OP, by day 6 or so. Naturally the op run might be a little sharper with the ridging and troughing given ensembles start to smooth out a bit, but the overall features aren't too dissimilar. However, I think the ensembles give rise to your argument in that there definitely must be some members that are keeping it crappy and moving along with the low level easterlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 CMC is way east, almost a miss. GFS ensembles east of the Op also, western FL hit in the mean. Will be interested to see if the Euro has this east shift..... Only a small title edit required at this time, and, IMHO, East of the Gulf is stiill a viable option this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 FWIW, 6Z GFS is into the Florida Big Bend just after the truncation chop. The 18Z GFS Texas drought buster seems an outlier. Still over a week away. Back at the Mid-Atlantic ranch, 97L is starting to get some convection to go with the swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 For those hoping that maybe Saturday is the day for 97L, Jeff Masters brings a good point up about the ULL north of Puerto Rico that could create shear even after this thing finally beats out the dry air. Then we got the islands of course...Certainly a lot of obstacles in the way of this wave currently despite the legitimate threat to the U.S down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I noticed the latest runs have pushed it further south and west of earlier runs. The latest GFS has it missing Shredola altogether and interacting with Jamaica and flat western Cuba. Based on the set up for next week this looks like it could be an eastern GOM Mexico threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I think a US landfall is fairly high given the troughing position over the GL. If it trends well east with that trough, then we can think about it recurving and missing, but otherwise, assuming the storm actually exists and is strong enough to withstand island impacts, I'd think we have to watch it closely and the question will be more where it makes landfall and not if it does. Strongly agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 As Josh said, we need to wait awhile yet for more clarity. First, we just need this to actually form and not be an Emily / TD 8 redux. I still think the pattern should be better for this one down the road, but not for the next 2-3 days in all likelihood. Track is up for grabs, which obviously could include major disruption from Hispaniola and / or Cuba. Models are back to a stronger Midwest / GL trough late next week, but had been weakening it prior to the last few runs. My personal view is that the eastern half of the Gulf is just as likely as the Southeast, with somewhere in Florida seemingly the most likely, if you put a gun to my head and asked me. But this is all very low confidence. Stop stealing my forecasts, dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Up to 40%.... 000 ABNT20 KNHC 191159 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Interesting to note that besides San Juan, only two NWS WFO's even mention 97L... Mobile: WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS VARIOUS MODELS DO HAVE THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EITHER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OR CARIBBEAN SEA LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. Houston/Galveston: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING A TROPICAL SYSTEM AROUND CUBA ON THE 25TH...BUT HAVE WIDE RANGING SOLNS/TRACKS AFTER THAT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STRENGTHEN IT ENOUGH WHERE WE PROBABLY WOULDN`T COMPLAIN IF THE RIDGE ACTUALLY HOLDS FOR JUST A WHILE LONGER...(WHICH IT PROBABLY WILL HERE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Interesting to note that besides San Juan, only two NWS WFO's even mention 97L... Mobile: WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS VARIOUS MODELS DO HAVE THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EITHER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OR CARIBBEAN SEA LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. Houston/Galveston: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING A TROPICAL SYSTEM AROUND CUBA ON THE 25TH...BUT HAVE WIDE RANGING SOLNS/TRACKS AFTER THAT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STRENGTHEN IT ENOUGH WHERE WE PROBABLY WOULDN`T COMPLAIN IF THE RIDGE ACTUALLY HOLDS FOR JUST A WHILE LONGER...(WHICH IT PROBABLY WILL HERE) Raleigh has said something like this for the past 36 hours... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS ONE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL STEERING OF ANY SUCH SYSTEMS. REGARDLESS OF THE TROPICS...THIS PATTERN FAVORS COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND. SEE THE NEW NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH FACEBOOK PAGE OR THE NWS RALEIGH WEB PAGE FOR DETAILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Experimental FIM model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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