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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part IV


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This. I am not trying to downplay the threat, or disregard what the GFS is doing. I just would like to wait until the TC forms before we start pinning down strength and landfall points and the such

you'd have to be a serious weenie to be doing the later at this pt

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This. I am not trying to downplay the threat, or disregard what the GFS is doing. I just would like to wait until the TC forms before we start pinning down strength and landfall points and the such

It's not like this is the official NHC online discussion headquarters where the public depends on our accurate analyses and forecasts.

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It's not like this is the official NHC online discussion headquarters where the public depends on our accurate analyses and forecasts.

Geez, didn't realize I was going to be railed against so much

Anywho, whatever I'm out to get things done. Enjoy the 10 day GFS pron Josh. You shall have your chase soon I hope

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My target zone is Texas to Maine

mine's pretty much the chesapeake bay.. i can understand your sentiment. just y-day a noob was told not to post the fantasy gfs. given the look for some time now tho it's hard to dismiss... but it could still be way off.

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mine's pretty much the chesapeake bay.. i can understand your sentiment. just y-day a noob was told not to post the fantasy gfs. given the look for some time now tho it's hard to dismiss... but it could still be way off.

Yeah, that's true

Met Tech and Josh, look. I apologize if it seems like I am stifling disco, that is def not my intention at all. I would just like to have the TC form first. That's all :)

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you'd have to be a serious weenie to be doing the later at this pt

Agreed. Unless I am missing something, nobody has implied that there is some sort of massive threat of a tropical cyclone hit in a particular area based on the GFS. The GFS is showing a significant tropical system which it has approaching the US in about 8 days, and it's been showing it consistently for many runs. That is a fact, and it is an interesting fact with some implications which are worth discussing. I haven't seen anybody read into it any more than that.

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It gets pretty damn annoying when people think you should stifle discussion over a weather system on a weather forum. I always thought these threads of yours were umbrella topics to discuss anything tropical, even if it's banter over the 10-day GFS. I don't see how this is hurting anyone.

Thank you for saying what I'm sure many of us quietly think while reading here.

Not everything is going to please everyone. Why can't people just keep their yaps shut and pass over posts that don't meet their personal standards?

pimp.gif

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Yeah, that's true

Met Tech and Josh, look. I apologize if it seems like I am stifling disco, I would just like to have the TC form first. That's all :)

On the flip side, I hope it doesn't become a pattern that those who point out the GFS' flaws, etc. are railed against for stifling discussion. There needs to be those who are hesitant in jumping on these bandwagons pointing out why they arent doing so balancing out those who are on the bandwagon.

Anywho, the 12z Euro is coming up soon... Let's see if it is consistent with the 00z run.

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Yeah, that's true

Met Tech and Josh, look. I apologize if it seems like I am stifling disco, that is def not my intention at all. I would just like to have the TC form first. That's all :)

No need to apologize to me. I just feel that Josh's threads are made to hold general tropical discussions, and that talking about a pattern of long-range model hits isn't harmful when doing it in here. If people are starting threads specifically to point out a 950 hour GFS panel, they should be tossed in the trash.

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My target zone is Texas to Maine

Texas is safe from all except random development from non-tropical sources through the end of this month. Maybe there will be a pattern change that opens Texas up the first three weeks of September before the window starts closing (October hits have happened, but rather rare), so I can't say "Season Cancel", but everything I see if the last few GFS and Euro ensembles- Eastern Gulf to Hatteras (or near miss fish) next 10 to 14 days.

Yes, I know I'm responding seriously to a joke.

I will not declare season cancel for Texas before September. I did that once the last week of August when the Westerlies had reached Texas prematurely, we'd had several decent frontal passages, and all the reliable models showed 10 to 16 days of Westerlies, and a freak storm got through. Few people remember that, but it taught me a lesson to wait until early September to issue "season cancel" pronouncements.

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DT says the last runs 14 in a row. :o

DT said on Facebook (so this is free/quotable here):

"‎12Z Wed run of the GFS ... after showing Gulf Hurricane for last 14 runs... moves STRONGLY to the Euro solution of East Coast Hurricane AUG 27-30."

He's incorrect about the 14 Gulf runs in a row. The prior run (6Z) wasn't even Gulf as it hit S FL and then went up the peninsula. The run prior to that (0Z) was Gulf. The U.S. Gulf hits were from these runs: 12Z Mon; 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z of Tue; 0Z Wed. So, five of last ten runs.

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On the flip side, I hope it doesn't become a pattern that those who point out the GFS' flaws, etc. are railed against for stifling discussion. There needs to be those who are hesitant in jumping on these bandwagons pointing out why they arent doing so balancing out those who are on the bandwagon.

Anywho, the 12z Euro is coming up soon... Let's see if it is consistent with the 00z run.

I don't see anyone jumping on their horse and running down to the beach to warn people a hurric'n is a comin'. The discussion is harmless. I don't think anyone needs to point out the GFS flaws in the long-range to a bunch of experienced tropical posters in the first place.

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Yes, we are desperate for anything at this point, and the past 10 runs of the GFS has given us our biggest hope in nearly 3 years of something happening. I think its ridiculous for people to shoot it down like that. Let us have our fun.

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DT said on Facebook (so this is free/quotable here):

"‎12Z Wed run of the GFS ... after showing Gulf Hurricane for last 14 runs... moves STRONGLY to the Euro solution of East Coast Hurricane AUG 27-30."

He's incorrect about the 14 Gulf runs in a row. The prior run (6Z) wasn't even Gulf as it hit S FL and then went up the peninsula. The run prior to that (0Z) was Gulf. The U.S. Gulf hits were from these runs: 12Z Mon; 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z of Tue; 0Z Wed. So, five of last ten runs.

DT is known to make stuff up

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DT said on Facebook (so this is free/quotable here):

"‎12Z Wed run of the GFS ... after showing Gulf Hurricane for last 14 runs... moves STRONGLY to the Euro solution of East Coast Hurricane AUG 27-30."

He's incorrect about the 14 Gulf runs in a row. The prior run (6Z) wasn't even Gulf as it hit S FL and then went up the peninsula. The run prior to that (0Z) was Gulf. The U.S. Gulf hits were from these runs: 12Z Mon; 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z of Tue; 0Z Wed. So, five of last ten runs.

Yea, I agree, he is wrong there. I think out of the 11 now that I have seen, 5 were GOM hits and the rest were East Coast hits with one that skirted OBX.

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Yes, we are desperate for anything at this point, and the past 10 runs of the GFS has given us our biggest hope in nearly 3 years of something happening. I think its ridiculous for people to shoot it down like that. Let us have our fun.

Well I certainly don't "hope" someone loses their home.

The discussion has been good...I don't see the harm in talking about a potential storm that two reliable global models have. Obviously we know some factors are against it too.

The points that Phil, Adam, Brian et al brought up late last night and this morning, have been great.

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And this doesn't even consider the runs before Monday that were showing a storm hitting the East coast around Maine. While it lost that, I do find it interesting that the time frame was around the 22nd of August and now its back for around the 25th-27th.

Might those 8/22ish hits have been from Invest 93L or some other invest? That would be too quick for the wave that has generated all of the most recent GFS hits.

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DT said on Facebook (so this is free/quotable here):

"‎12Z Wed run of the GFS ... after showing Gulf Hurricane for last 14 runs... moves STRONGLY to the Euro solution of East Coast Hurricane AUG 27-30."

He's incorrect about the 14 Gulf runs in a row. The prior run (6Z) wasn't even Gulf as it hit S FL and then went up the peninsula. The run prior to that (0Z) was Gulf. The U.S. Gulf hits were from these runs: 12Z Mon; 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z of Tue; 0Z Wed. So, five of last ten runs.

If my math is correct, this is Monday 06z's run. Wilmington, Gulf Coast, what's the difference.

2011081506_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_360.gif

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The irony of all of this robust discussion of the GFS vs. the Euro is that the Euro was the first of the two models to show a hurricane in the western part of the basin from the wave being discussed. The 0Z Sun Euro run had it get to ~22N, 67W. Prior to that, it was 93L being developed by many of the models.

Here it is at ~992 mb's:

post-882-0-57819400-1313604192.gif

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