jdrenken Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Any of y'all know what's up with this... BEGINHPC_ATCF invest_al852011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108171410 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END NONAME, AL, L, , , , , 85, 2011, TS, O, 2011052412, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL852011 AL, 85, 2011052318, , BEST, 0, 135N, 551W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 25, 25, 25, 25, AL, 85, 2011052400, , BEST, 0, 139N, 571W, 35, 1009, TS, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 85, 2011052406, , BEST, 0, 144N, 588W, 50, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 40, 40, AL, 85, 2011052406, , BEST, 0, 144N, 588W, 50, 1009, TS, 50, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, AL, 85, 2011052412, , BEST, 0, 150N, 600W, 50, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 40, 40, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NONAME, M, AL, 85, 2011052412, , BEST, 0, 150N, 600W, 50, 1009, TS, 50, NEQ, 25, 25, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NONAME, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Any of y'all know what's up with this... That's a test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 That's a test. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 12Z Euro has it getting disrupted by Hispaniola again, coming from the east/Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It gets pretty damn annoying when people think you should stifle discussion over a weather system on a weather forum. I always thought these threads of yours were umbrella topics to discuss anything tropical, even if it's banter over the 10-day GFS. I don't see how this is hurting anyone. This is sort of why I don't post much on the weather side anymore. Hypersensitivity abounds, especially when it comes to the sacred TROPICS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The 12Z Euro is, just as was the case 24 hours earlier, pretty tame with nothing but a very broad 1008 mb sfc low in the W. Caribbean at 198 hours. So, the GFS vs. Euro battle continues. Keep in mind, however, that it was the Euro that first had this as a 'cane in the western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This is sort of why I don't post much on the weather side anymore. Hypersensitivity abounds, especially when it comes to the sacred TROPICS. This is actually kind of sad when you think about it. One has to wonder just how many others are out there that feel the same way. I don't think any of us that follow the tropics discourage reasonable discussions what so ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Of more importance is the pattern being advertised by the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The 12Z Euro is, just as was the case 24 hours earlier, pretty tame with nothing but a very broad 1008 mb sfc low in the W. Caribbean at 198 hours. So, the GFS vs. Euro battle continues. Keep in mind, however, that it was the Euro that first had this as a 'cane in the western Atlantic. I think what we can take away from this run of the Euro is that there is a more solid Bermuda High... that's fairly intriguing... and that after the Hispaniola, the Euro looks to redevelop it in the Western Caribbean. This is looking like a much different run versus previous Euros (24 hours ago pushed the remnants into Florida) and the GFS (Western Gulf scenario?) We'll see if it holds out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 This is sort of why I don't post much on the weather side anymore. Hypersensitivity abounds, especially when it comes to the sacred TROPICS. Kind of silly. First off, the discussions here are for the most part really cordial. Even today's "blowout" was a civil disagreement that resolved itself naturally with no namecalling. It was simply two viewpoints being expressed. Secondly, if you're so averse to debate that it scares you off from wx discussion, either 1) you are too sensitive or 2) you're just not that interested in the subject matter in the first place. Anyone who really cares about the tropics is going to participate. C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This is actually kind of sad when you think about it. One has to wonder just how many others are out there that feel the same way. I don't think any of us that follow the tropics discourage reasonable discussions what so ever. This is going to happen anytime LR model forecasts show a threat to the US. I'm not terribly surprised that little "blowout" happened earlier in the thread - I'm actually surprised it took this long into the season for it to happen. People want to see a hurricane and there are always going to be people that don't buy into it totally in the MR ( ). That's obviously going to cause conflict. I actually didn't see anyone on either side overreact, but there were perceived overreactions that escalated things. It happens when people are emotionally invested in things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 I think what we can take away from this run of the Euro is that there is a more solid Bermuda High... that's fairly intriguing... and that after the Hispaniola, the Euro looks to redevelop it in the Western Caribbean. This is looking like a much different run versus previous Euros (24 hours ago pushed the remnants into Florida) and the GFS (Western Gulf scenario?) We'll see if it holds out... Bingo. That's what I'm liking about it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 This is going to happen anytime LR model forecasts show a threat to the US. I'm not terribly surprised that little "blowout" happened earlier in the thread - I'm actually surprised it took this long into the season for it to happen. People want to see a hurricane and there are always going to be people that don't buy into it totally in the MR ( ). That's obviously going to cause conflict. I actually didn't see anyone on either side overreact, but there were perceived overreactions that escalated things. It happens when people are emotionally invested in things. Where? Pouch P17L, you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This is actually kind of sad when you think about it. One has to wonder just how many others are out there that feel the same way. I don't think any of us that follow the tropics discourage reasonable discussions what so ever. Agree entirely. If the object is to discuss (and hopefully for many of us) learn from the evolution of of storms during model runs, I can't see anything but good coming from talking about them ... even if the models are out in weather porn levels. Perhaps some folks feel betrayed by the long-range models when they don't deliver the mega-storm they promised ... when it wasn't their's to promise in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 What a pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Where? Pouch P17L, you mean? Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I think what we can take away from this run of the Euro is that there is a more solid Bermuda High... that's fairly intriguing... and that after the Hispaniola, the Euro looks to redevelop it in the Western Caribbean. This is looking like a much different run versus previous Euros (24 hours ago pushed the remnants into Florida) and the GFS (Western Gulf scenario?) We'll see if it holds out... Agreed, and with Ivanhater about the overall pattern. The pattern looks very interesting and seems to be quite indicative of a US threat IF anything develops, as others have discussed. This op EC run's issue with developing something is that it takes its developing low level vorticity center straight into Hispaniola, which disrupts it. But it is seemingly trying to reorganize it in the western Caribbean in the 192-216 hour timeframe. It's getting close enough into the time frame that if I was at the WFO in SJU I would at least be getting intrigued given the model solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I agree - HurricaneTrack has a good post onthe point of "pattern" vs 1 run of a model Of more importance is the pattern being advertised by the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Hours 192-240 on this Euro run are amazing just for the physics that are happening as the area of interest redevelops, slows to a crawl, and seemingly looks to be picked up by an oncoming trough towards the central Gulf (I know, bad to extrapolate...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This is looking like a much different run versus previous Euros (24 hours ago pushed the remnants into Florida) and the GFS (Western Gulf scenario?) We'll see if it holds out... 1) It is similarly pretty benign looking for the U.S., such as was the case 24 hours ago, vs. the GFS' hurricane hits. 2) The 12Z GFS of yesterday wasn't western Gulf. It hit the S tip of FL and then went NW into the central Gulf coast (MS). 3) As you implied, the Euro has been pretty unstable. The GFS has been more consistent from run to run. This doesn't do too much for confidence in it vs. the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 1) It is similarly pretty benign looking for the U.S., such as was the case 24 hours ago, vs. the GFS's hurricane hits. 2) The 12Z GFS of yesterday wasn't western Gulf. It hit the S tip of FL and then went NW into the central Gufl coast (MS). 3) As you implied, the Euro has been pretty unstable. The GFS has been more consistent from run to run. This doesn't do too much for confidence in it vs. the GFS. The Euro doesn't go out far enough to show evidence of whether or not the US is affected... hour 240 looks like it is headed towards the US, but it can't be confirmed for a few days. I wasn't referring to the GFS having a western Gulf scenario, that was my guess for the upcoming hour plots for this Euro. While the GFS has been more consistent, that doesn't mean that we can't discount the GFS' recent poor history against the Euro. Analyzing this run of the Euro versus previous runs, there have been some hints of similarities... such as a Hispaniolaish threat (with last night's 0Z run being the lone exception to both). At the moment, it appears we may start seeing the beginning of the "Euro west, GFS east" that has plagued the two models for most of the year... too early to tell for sure, but it's certainly interesting how this situation is unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The Euro doesn't go out far enough to show evidence of whether or not the US is affected... hour 240 looks like it is headed towards the US, but it can't be confirmed for a few days. I wasn't referring to the GFS having a western Gulf scenario, that was my guess for the upcoming hour plots for this Euro. While the GFS has been more consistent, that doesn't mean that we can't discount the GFS' recent poor history against the Euro. Analyzing this run of the Euro versus previous runs, there have been some hints of similarities... such as a Hispaniolaish threat (with last night's 0Z run being the lone exception to both). At the moment, it appears we may start seeing the beginning of the "Euro west, GFS east" that has plagued the two models for most of the year... too early to tell for sure, but it's certainly interesting how this situation is unfolding. Agree with your ideas. Just because the operational EC doesn't have a sub990 mb low plowing into the US like the GFS does doesn't mean it's not very interesting. If that vorticity maximum had missed Hispaniola it might very well have had an intense cyclone somewhere near the US in the 192-240 hour timeframe. That's why it's the pattern that is so intriguing to me. You combine that with the fact that we are approaching the more active part of the season climatologically and model signals of cyclogenesis in the basin - could be an interesting period coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The Euro doesn't go out far enough to show evidence of whether or not the US is affected... hour 240 looks like it is headed towards the US, but it can't be confirmed for a few days. I mean as of hour 240. Whereas the 12Z gfs is already hitting SC with a H then, the 12Z Euro still just has a pretty weak and diffuse sfc low ((S GOM). It is, obviously, quite benign looking vs. the 12Z GFS at face value then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 12Z Ukmet and CMC both have a relatively weak but appreciable surface low in the vcty of Hispaniola in the 7-8 day time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I mean as of hour 240. Whereas the 12Z gfs is already hitting SC with a H then, the 12Z Euro still just has a pretty weak and diffuse sfc low ((S GOM). It is, obviously, quite benign looking vs. the 12Z GFS at face value. Way too early to even say something like that. How many major Gulf hurricanes have approached the GOM looking "fairly benign"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Way too early to even say something like that. How many major Gulf hurricanes have approached the GOM looking "fairly benign"? I'm just clarifying my original remark about the 12Z Euro looking relatively tame (still only a weak low in the S GOM) compared to the 12Z GFS's actual hurricane hit as of the end of the Euro run (240 hours). I'm not talking about what may occur later. You're reading way too much into my comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I'm just clarifying my original remark about the 12Z Euro looking relatively tame (still only a weak low in the S GOM) compared to the 12Z GFS's actual hurricane hit as of the end of the Euro run (240 hours). I'm not talking about what may occur later. This, though, goes back to the entire Euro west/GFS east model issue. I'd lean toward the GFS being recurve-happy in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This, though, goes back to the entire Euro west/GFS east model issue. I'd lean toward the GFS being recurve-happy in this case. We'll see. One reason I'm documenting these GFS runs is to see how well the model verifies after some very rare consistency (U.S. hit mainly within 8/26-8) covering ten runs in a row. Will it verify well? Will it totally blow it? These are some exciting times in the world of tropical wx forecasting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 What a pattern change Kind of supports the Carolina-Ohio runner scenario doesnt it with the double barrel high sitting over the Mid Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Perhaps the Euro's solution is depicted in the Roundy probabilities for the same approximate time frame: Any thoughts from pro-mets and others are welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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