OSUmetstud Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 TC's don't have to hit the US for them to be important. This could very well be something significant for the islands, so I couldn't care less about the NAO state. sorry to offend your delicate sensibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 sorry to offend your delicate sensibilities some people just feel the need to play the rainstorm role in order to fill the vacuum left by her absence...it's silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Doesn't look too bad here...looks like it's riding the southern edge... image still seems like it might be ingesting a fair amount of mid level dry air pushing down from the NNE per wxtap imagery....not so much "punching" into the dry air but still some feeding in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 some people just feel the need to play the rainstorm role in order to fill the vacuum left by her absence...it's silly. I think the -NAO is a big player for a future track with this one, that's why I posted about it. I posted in the SNE forum awhile back that I believe the -NAO is actually better to get the hurricane across the central Atlantic. If you want an East Coast landfall you probably want a flip to positive as it gets close to the coast. The -NAO Bermuda high is weaker overall but stretched more favorably east to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 There's still some competing vort centers according to the CIMSS analysis. The 500mb vort center is located east of the 700mb and the 850mb vort center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 91l is huge! Very nice outflow and coming together nicely.I say it gets classified tonight. This looks like a potentially dangerous situation for the islands. Maybe the NHC wont wait to classify it at the last second like they did with Tomas. You really should try to know what you are even talking about, before you trash the NHC. Tomas was first classified SE of the Windward Islands. Observe more, post less. ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND UNCONTAMINATED SFMR SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. AS A RESULT...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM TOMAS...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2010 SEASON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Emily (to be) likely to be off Bahamas next Friday and pattern favors an escape out to sea with no SE landfall. Good news as no one needs hurricane damage in this extremely difficult economic situation. dudes who produce, sell, and install roofing products would disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 91L looking good right now. No real deep convection yet but, a solid shield now. If we get some deeper convection tonight I think we have TD 5 or TS Emily by afternoon. <div><br></div><div>http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html</div> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Do 's constantly crap up tropical threads on this forum or is it a new trend? btw not in response to any extremely recent posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Do <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/hotdog.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />'s constantly crap up tropical threads on this forum or is it a new trend? btw not in response to any extremely recent posts. I see what you did there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Emily (to be) likely to be off Bahamas next Friday and pattern favors an escape out to sea with no SE landfall. Good news as no one needs hurricane damage in this extremely difficult economic situation. Not going to make friends like that. That said, I hope it starts its recurve before Hispaniola. Puerto Rico isn't the richest place in the world, but they haven't had a big earthquake recently, and as a US comonwealth would get plenty of assistance after any storm. I don't think they have the deforestation issues/landslide risks Haiti has as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH ALARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THELESSER ANTILLES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ATROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEMIS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND HAS A HIGHCHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THISDISTURBANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLESSHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 90%, that pretty much a go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 i guess they're waiting for a burst of convection before upgrading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I'm not buying 90% yet... It's not consolidated enough. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I'm not buying 90% yet... It's not consolidated enough. http://tropic.ssec.w.../natl/main.html You don't think there is a 90% chance this will develop in the next 48 hours? While granted we haven't had a large burst of convection yet, the circulation is well defined and since the percentage is assigned to a time threshold, I think there is more than enough time for this system to get organized and be designated a tropical cyclone. It might not be tonight, but surely within the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I like the lemon/mandarin/cherry system but debating about the percentage is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 You don't think there is a 90% chance this will develop in the next 48 hours? While granted we haven't had a large burst of convection yet, the circulation is well defined and since the percentage is assigned to a time threshold, I think there is more than enough time for this system to get organized and be designated a tropical cyclone. It might not be tonight, but surely within the next 2 days. I very well understand that there is a 48hr time window attached to the percentage. But as of right now. No, I don't think there is a 90% chance. I think maybe a 60% chance. Enough for a cherry but I am not convinced we will see a TD until at least 55-52W. Unless, I have to eat my words tomorrow when recon goes in, but my bet is that they will find a elongated, large, barely open wave and no vortex message back to NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 18z GFDL brings 91L on a path of island destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 W shift with the 00Z suite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 HWRF at least has been trending SW over the past few runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 The model shifts to the left make sense since we haven't had a dominant llc and td formation yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 91L looks to be going through a cheese grader right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 91L looks to be going through a cheese grader right now. 24 hours ago.. Looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ Nice shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Eh, I can buy that. This thing does seem prone to pretty large changes in satellite presentation... I thought this could have been a TD today or yesterday, but it's not looking like it's gonna get off the ground until at least 5 pm tomorrow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 24 hours ago.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-avn.html Chalk it up to diurnal min? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 It really does not matter when this becomes a TD. It's not like it's going to run out of space. The later it pops, the worse the track gets. Best case is if this develops tomorrow morning and decides to bypass the islands. No death and destruction and we get a nice hurricane out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Still looks pretty well organized with distinct outflow. The broad nature of the storm though is slowing the intensification process though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.