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Dec. 12-13th yikes!

SEWinterWxF

By SEWinterWxF,
in Southeastern States

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

Lets get back on track for this 12th-13th system (hint I need to update the title). At this time, the system has a very uncertainty track, speed, and location. This system should go west of the APPS. or E of the APPS. There are ?'s still in between.

I don't know who you are or what you're trying to pull, but our Moderators will ban you quickly for lying about being a MET.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Its just as stupid to say that there is no comparison when just a model run earlier the 500 mb pattern was nearly a spot on match to the 96 storm. So lets not say one scenario is stupid just because of one model run.

This storm has a thread for discussion and the 96 storm looked to be a good analog for some earlier model runs. So that was a valid discussion.

This is still a ways out and could end up being a GLC or a Miller A, until then I like a strong Miller b and the 96 storm is fair game right now :gun_bandana:

You compared a 500mb synoptic map from the Blizzard of 1996 with a surface pressure map from the EURO. Not quite the same thing arrowheadsmiley.png

i think we're going to have to wait until the stj becomes active or we get lucky with some cad/ice. otherwise cold and dry.

I sorta agree. The problem right now is that we need

A. Cold air in place and

B. A storm system to remain suppressed so the northern part of this system keeps us in the cold air and hence wintry precip/snow.

The problem is when you have a northern stream impulse dive down into the region is oftentimes forces a ridge in the northern stream to its east, removing all the cold air before move into the region. A southern stream impulse riding the subtropical jet does not do this, because is it disconnected from the northern stream trough in the east and can slide under and provide moisture and precipitation while the northern stream trough provides enough cold air for snow/ice/sleet ect. Thats what happen repeatedly last year during late January into February.

But having a northern stream s/w move in from the west either does to things... it amplifies too much and removes the trough in the east, creating a large area of WAA across the South and East. This usually means rain for the southeast unless there is a strong high pressure in place of arctic origin (the arctic jet can sometimes produce nice 500mb lows over Canada that can lock in a surface high to its south as the s/w impulse on the polar jet advances). Then thats when you get CAD that can produce some Ice and Snow. However that requires a good 500mb low to be in place to keep the cold locked in.

This past clipper was a northern stream impulse that was riding down the northern stream trough located over the east. While it wasn't particularly intense the last couple of days, it was displaced much further south than expected thanks to a massive ridge located over Greenland that is correlated with the -NAO. Over the next 5-6 days this pattern is going to evolve to a less amplified, more typical of La Nina pattern. Look how fast the jet is coming out from the Pacific at 120 hours. This screams temperature moderation across the vast majority of the United States. By the time the next impulse does finally start to amplify in the east, we won't have much cold air in advance to help us out.

m8cy8z.gif

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SEWinterWxF

SEWinterWxF

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Posted

PLEASE DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS!!

Also, use the report button as needed.

what a joke.

''ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION

OF NEXT SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LATEST RUNS SEEM MORE IN

LINE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK. GFS

MOVES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY...SKIRTING TO OUR

NORTH...AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA INTO THE WEEKEND.

A SECOND LOW DROPS OUT OF THE MIDWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING THE

NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. ECMWF...HOWEVER...IS A LITTLE

FASTER ON THE TIMING OF THE FIRST LOW...AND THEN DEVELOPS THE SECOND

OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY. CONTINUED WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE

MODELS...WEIGHING A LITTLE MORE ON THE ECMWF. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS

BEGIN FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS CONTINUING THROUGH

THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL

THROUGH THE EXTENDED.''

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

''ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION

OF NEXT SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LATEST RUNS SEEM MORE IN

LINE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK. GFS

MOVES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY...SKIRTING TO OUR

NORTH...AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA INTO THE WEEKEND.

A SECOND LOW DROPS OUT OF THE MIDWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING THE

NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. ECMWF...HOWEVER...IS A LITTLE

FASTER ON THE TIMING OF THE FIRST LOW...AND THEN DEVELOPS THE SECOND

OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY. CONTINUED WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE

MODELS...WEIGHING A LITTLE MORE ON THE ECMWF. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS

BEGIN FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS CONTINUING THROUGH

THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL

THROUGH THE EXTENDED.''

For the AM package include a shout out to AmericanWx and we'll believe you :thumbsup:

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Here are the heights Phil.

I was just showing placement of the LPS's with the other comparison

You can't post H5 anomaly maps and make a comparison to what was a close off in 96. Nothing at this point suggests this will be an upper level low, let alone one as intense as 96. Anomalies just show height deviation compared to the relative mean. Everything at this point suggests a short-wave, not a long wave, and certainly not a very intense ull. This thread is getting a little out there in some regards, come back down to reality, and try again, but in a much more conservative manner given the current T-step.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

You compared a 500mb synoptic map from the Blizzard of 1996 with a surface pressure map from the EURO. Not quite the same thing arrowheadsmiley.png

I sorta agree. The problem right now is that we need

A. Cold air in place and

B. A storm system to remain suppressed so the northern part of this system keeps us in the cold air and hence wintry precip/snow.

The problem is when you have a northern stream impulse dive down into the region is oftentimes forces a ridge in the northern stream to its east, removing all the cold air before move into the region. A southern stream impulse riding the subtropical jet does not do this, because is it disconnected from the northern stream trough in the east and can slide under and provide moisture and precipitation while the northern stream trough provides enough cold air for snow/ice/sleet ect. Thats what happen repeatedly last year during late January into February.

But having a northern stream s/w move in from the west either does to things... it amplifies too much and removes the trough in the east, creating a large area of WAA across the South and East. This usually means rain for the southeast unless there is a strong high pressure in place of arctic origin (the arctic jet can sometimes produce nice 500mb lows over Canada that can lock in a surface high to its south as the s/w impulse on the polar jet advances). Then thats when you get CAD that can produce some Ice and Snow. However that requires a good 500mb low to be in place to keep the cold locked in.

This past clipper was a northern stream impulse that was riding down the northern stream trough located over the east. While it wasn't particularly intense the last couple of days, it was displaced much further south than expected thanks to a massive ridge located over Greenland that is correlated with the -NAO. Over the next 5-6 days this pattern is going to evolve to a less amplified, more typical of La Nina pattern. Look how fast the jet is coming out from the Pacific at 120 hours. This screams temperature moderation across the vast majority of the United States. By the time the next impulse does finally start to amplify in the east, we won't have much cold air in advance to help us out.

m8cy8z.gif

Have to agree....... If that verified, it would almost certainly bring about a moderation in temps.

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

Posted
Posted

You can't post H5 anomaly maps and make a comparison to what was a close off in 96. Nothing at this point suggests this will be an upper level low, let alone one as intense as 96. Anomalies just show height deviation compared to the relative mean. Everything at this point suggests a short-wave, not a long wave, and certainly not a very intense ull. This thread is getting a little out there in some regards, come back down to reality, and try again, but in a much more conservative manner given the current T-step.

Whatever, the oz euro was strikingly simular to the 96 storm, I know its far fetched but the data was there. There is no need to doubt it go look for yourself :whistle:

Yall act like I am calling for another 96 blizzard, when all I was doing was making a comparison.:rolleyes:

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SEWinterWxF

SEWinterWxF

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Whatever, the oz euro was strikingly simular to the 96 storm, I know its far fetched but the data was there. There is no need to doubt it go look for yourself :whistle:

Yall act like I am calling for another 96 blizzard, when all I was doing was making a comparison.:rolleyes:

comparison is always good, it does not hurt. It helps you forecast the weather, what are the possibility's?, how strong other systems where?, how strong will this upcoming system may be? Things like that are always good to consider, so it does not hurt.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

:whistle:

10 bucks and a cold beverage says he gives a university that doesnt offer meteorology

Leave the dude alone, no need to continue stirring the pot, if you want, take it over to OT as that is what it is for, not here. Same goes for the OP in question...

Whatever, the oz euro was strikingly simular to the 96 storm, I know its far fetched but the data was there. There is no need to doubt it go look for yourself :whistle:

Yall act like I am calling for another 96 blizzard, when all I was doing was making a comparison.:rolleyes:

OK, fair enough, but trying to draw analogs at this stage is premature given spread and range out. One could draw a new analog for each cycle, and each model, given the inherent variability in the 7 day.

OK

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

Posted
Posted

OK, fair enough, but trying to draw analogs at this stage is premature given spread and range out. One could draw a new analog for each cycle, and each model, given the inherent variability in the 7 day.

OK

Trying to guess anything about this storm at this point could be considered premature, why dont you lighten up a little? :arrowhead:

It may be premature but it makes for good conversation and fun times bossman :whistle:

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Midlo Snow Maker

Midlo Snow Maker

Posted
Posted

listen, I don't forecast for the NWS. What I'm saying is I help the NWS out by doing observations. Yes, I'm a certified spotter. I got my certificate from warning coordination meteorologist Barry Gooden from the NWS out of Peachtree city, GA. I just don't do severe weather spotting, I do weather spotting all year around. I also do reports for TWC. I do vlogs for my viewers on youtube, and write notes on my facebook page for my friends of what could happen :lmao::lmao::lmao: . I don't have a degree in meteorology yet.

:axe:

Who do you forecast for?

National Weather Service for Peachtree city, GA.

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YoRyz

YoRyz

Posted
Posted

listen, I don't forecast for the NWS. What I'm saying is I help the NWS out by doing observations. Yes, I'm a certified spotter. I got my certificate from warning coordination meteorologist Barry Gooden from the NWS out of Peachtree city, GA. I just don't do severe weather spotting, I do weather spotting all year around. I also do reports for TWC. I do vlogs for my viewers on youtube, and write notes on my facebook page for my friends of what could happen. I don't have a degree in meteorology yet.

Not good enough. Sorry.

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