0z models

[jrodd321]

You can tell the GFS loses it's resolution after 180 hours. The storm at 192 should not be that far east as the GFS depicts. Just a strange looking jump of the low from hours 180 to 192.

I noticed that strange jump too. Kinda just like popped up out of nowhere haha.

[isnice]

On the 12z Euro at 216 hours, placement of the low is nearly exactly the same as the 00z GFS. How bout' dem apples? GFS-Euro agreement 216 hours out on a storm.

[Ji]

i think we have something to track. The philly board is much better than the DC board for model threads:(

[Feb]

I noticed that strange jump too. Kinda just like popped up out of nowhere haha.

That low would be tucked in closer to the coast IMO. Of course my opinion, along with the GFS will change in 6 hours.

[Saturn510]

As long as there is consistency , thats all that matters.

[SnoSki14]

Well the 18z was too far inland and now it's too far east, sounds pretty good 8-9 days out. It's definitely rain before that storm though, the BL are far too warm, are highs are expected to be in the low 40s at that time, the SE direction is awful at any time of the year, especially in early December. It's not that big of a deal though, the system is just a typical clipper, there won't be too much precip anyway. Although if it manages to dig further south, you'd get a weak reflection developing off the coast, giving parts of the area some snow due to the colder BL if the low ends up not to the NW of you, but rather due west or slightly sw of you.

[isnice]

I noticed that strange jump too. Kinda just like popped up out of nowhere haha.

A super fast transfer of energy? The clipper is far south enough as to pass by the mountains, therefore speeding up the transfer of energy?

[tombo82685]

i think we have something to track. The philly board is much better than the DC board for model threads:(

ji your welcome anytime...i think i said that like last week your thread was dead

[mattinpa]

I'd rather have 2-4, 3-6 inches of all snow than than a sloppy mix, though. Hopefully that trends closer while keeping the cold! I think last winter spoiled everyone in the region.

[jrodd321]

That low would be tucked in closer to the coast IMO. Of course my opinion, along with the GFS will change in 6 hours.

Or will it!?

[daxx]

I think that was a good run this far out. The potential is there for something big on the east coast.

[earthlight]

As long as there is consistency , thats all that matters.

The only consistency on the GFS is that there is going to be weather.

[Bostonseminole]

Yes, just a side swipe this time. Hate to see what could be a huge storm just miss us out to sea.

is early.. don't worry.

[isnice]

According to 00z GFS, -NAO returns with a Pacific ridge. Couldn't ask for a better run...

[Don't Eat The Yellow Snow]

I am probaly gonna get banned for my rants in other forums. but I wanted to let you all know that I truly enjoy reading this thread. Even though I don't understand much of what your all talking about in terms of meteorological terms, it is much more interesting than the forum that I follow due to where I live. Hope al of us north of the mason dixon line get a 12' plus white christmas. Peace. :snowman:

[Ajdos]

this will all depend on how strong the low is in the O/V.. The chance is there that is stays stronger and becomes the primary low, also, the low off the coast stays weak..

[tombo82685]

It looks like 34-36 degrees. With the uppers so cold, I doubt that's rain.

Yes, I doubt that is rain with the 850's at -2 to -4 in December.

[BxEngine]

this will all depend on how strong the low is in the O/V.. The chance is there that is stays stronger and becomes the primary low, also, the low off the coast stays weak..

ummm, what?

[Thunder Road]

argh, tombo. why do u always have to bring up the facts?

[Atlas]

Two runs in a row by the GFS showing this Dec 12-14th threat. Honestly the GFS has been pretty good with the long term recently. The Euro seems to flip flop daily.

[Don't Eat The Yellow Snow]

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[earthlight]

I am probaly gonna get banned for my rants in other forums. but I wanted to let you all know that I truly enjoy reading this thread. Even though I don't understand much of what your all talking about in terms of meteorological terms, it is much more interesting than the forum that I follow due to where I live. Hope al of us north of the mason dixon line get a 12' plus white christmas. Peace. :snowman:

Won't get banned here. Keep reading and eventually you will learn more. Glad you're here and thanks for the nice comments. Wishing you a white christmas as well!

[SACRUS]

On the 12z Euro at 216 hours, placement of the low is nearly exactly the same as the 00z GFS. How bout' dem apples? GFS-Euro agreement 216 hours out on a storm.

not too far off. not a bad place to be this far out

[tombo82685]

argh, tombo. why do u always have to bring up the facts?

for that norlun stuff it all comes down to the clipper. You want it weaker or further south. You notice the 18z gfs had the same track as the 0z, but the big difference was the 0z was stronger which brought a more southerly flow at the surface area.

[mattinpa]

not too far off. not a bad place to be this far out

Yes, much colder storm than before. With -10 850s and the low track, looks frozen. I wonder if it gets too much closer if we will have lots of issues..

[earthlight]

The 500mb pattern at 180 hours is TEXTBOOK. Especially the 200mb jet.

I strongly agree with this..and at the H5 level it's very impressive as well. That can even be said for the frames prior to 180 hours, which is good news as we seem to be headed in the right direction on most modeling. This is a classic Miller B shortwave depiction. One just has to hope the confluence in the Northeast is as transient as the GFS and most models have been depicting it to be. If this shortwave does come to fruition, as modeled, the likelihood for a rapidly redeveloping Miller B would increase dramatically.

[ag3]

Thanks Tombo. That skew is almost definetely rain.

[mattinpa]

Thanks Tombo. That skew is almost definetely rain.

The low is well off the coast and the 850s are shivering... doubt it would be rain.

[tombo82685]

Thanks Tombo. That skew is almost definetely rain.

i didnt mean to be rude or anything, i just wanted to show you

[earthlight]

Regarding the first storm system, it's very hard to get frozen precipitation in this area in that set up unless the timing is perfect, or more importantly it is later in the season with a well established cold airmass (which we do not have). This run of the GFS is better positioned with the H5 trough, but the fact remains that the surface low i well to our northwest...the high is to the east, and the low level winds are out of the southwest..which helps develop a warm nose and decreases the frozen precipitation chances. The posters saying it was 34-36 and would be snow would normally be correct, but the warm nose is actually a bit more "wide"on soundings than usual do to the surface low positioning..the H85 low is also well to our northwest of the Great Lakes which creates an unfavorable flow even at that layer.