tornadotony Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Looks like LES is taking shape near the IL/WI border. Also, the VU for during the event: http://www.valpo.edu/union/webcam.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Looks like Alek is getting destroyed now...and ORD is about to get SN or +SN shortly. Could be interesting in far NE IL for a couple hours. Meanwhile, the Northern IN WFO discussion is rather ominous: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 303 PM EST SAT DEC 4 2010 .SHORT TERM... ...EPIC LAKE EFFECT SNOWSTORM TO TAKE SHAPE THIS PD... VIGOROUS SW TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH IL EARLY THIS AFTN WAS INDEED SLW TO LOSE FOCUS W/NARROW HEAVY SNOWBAND OBSVD FALLING FM NE IA THROUGH CNTRL IL AND INTO CNTRL IN. LL DRY ENTRAINMENT RIGHT OF VORT TRACK LED TO CONSIDERABLE SUBLIMATION OF SNOW FLAKES AS WITNESSED HERE AT THE OFFICE AND MINIMIZED SNOW ACCUMS W/HIGHEST REPORT OR 2 INCHES IN CASS COUNTY. SYS IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING THROUGH BASE OF DEEPENING LW TROUGH OVR NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND AND WILL BRING QUITE A STORM TO THE ERN ST LAW VALLEY. TREMENDOUS DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WILL PROVE PIVOTAL W/DEEP CUTOFF CYCLONE SLOW TO RETROGRADE NWWD INTO MID WEEK. THUS WWD DEEP MERIDIONAL FLW DOWN LONG AXIS OF LK MI COMBINED W/PRECONDITIONED PARCELS OFF LK SP LOOK TO SPELL A PROLONGED PD OF LK EFFECT SNOWFALL. AS ALWAYS...DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS PARTICULARLY W/CONTRASTING SOLUTIONS OF NAM AND 12KM WRF. INTERESTINGLY WRF SOLUTION AT FACE VALUE ALIGNS QUITE WELL W/JAN 1ST/5TH 2010 ANALOGS W/INITIAL INTENSE SINGLE BAND DVLPMNT THIS EVENING AND ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY UPSTREAM PER REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO DUAL DIPOLE VORTEX SEEN IN MANY PAST LK EVENTS. HWVR ALTHOUGH WRF HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE CONSISTENCY LAST TWO DAYS...PREFERRED DIPOLE HAS WAFFLED. CLIMO FVRS ERN BAND GIVEN INTENSITY OF THERMAL TROUGH IN FACE OF DEEP SHORE PARALLEL FLW HWVR INLAND PLACEMENT STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY FURTHER MODULATED BY DEGREE OF CAA THAT WRAPS SWD OUT OF SRN CANADA WHICH MAY HAVE YET TO BE FULLY CAPTURED/INITIALIZED. THUS ANY CHGS THROUGH MON NIGHT WERE INCREMENTAL IN NATURE W/NEWER GUIDANCE BLENDED IN WHERE DEEMED APPROPRIATE. LARGEST CHG WAS TO THIS EVENING TO DELAY ERN TRANSLATION OF SINGLE BAND GIVEN SLWD BACKING AND ADDED DETAILS IN DERIVED POP/QPF GRIDS THROUGH MON NIGHT. && .LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE CONTINUATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY TUESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD IN REGARDS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL DUE TO REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ALL AGREEING ON REINFORCING TROUGH...BUT SOME SUBSTANTIAL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH NAM BEING A FAST AND WESTWARD OUTLIER DIGGING THIS TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WITH A SECONDARY PEAK AS THIS SECONDARY LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH DROPS DOWN. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH GEFS/SREF SUPPORTED GFS SOLUTION REGARDING TIMING THIS TROUGH MORE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE THUS KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH. PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR ONSET OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ALTHOUGH WITH RECENT SNOW AND FORECASTED EARLY WEEK SNOWFALL...THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE SFC. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND POSSIBLY MAY NEED TO NUDGE DOWN FURTHER ESPECIALLY FOR TUES/WED. And, here is the LES warning for SW lower MI: INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN 119 PM EST SAT DEC 4 2010 /1219 PM CST SAT DEC 4 2010/ ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ TUESDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ TUESDAY. * TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT...FIRST IN WESTERN LAPORTE COUNTY. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND PERSIST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTALS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 2 FEET POSSIBLE. * OTHER IMPACTS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH INTENSE SNOWFALL IN NARROW BANDS. UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL ON AFFECTED PORTIONS OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 94 WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 ORD is about to get SN or +SN shortly. Could be interesting in far NE IL for a couple hours. SN with 0.5SM. Had some light LES here, with a bit more to come. Looks like it will pass through NE. IL fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 KORD 042137Z 03006KT 1/4SM R14R/1800V3500FT +SN FG SCT002 BKN006 OVC014 00/M01 A3011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Will be chasing this sucker for sure! Leaving tomorrow afternoon, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 KORD 042137Z 03006KT 1/4SM R14R/1800V3500FT +SN FG SCT002 BKN006 OVC014 00/M01 A3011 With this I beat Caplan in the over/under bet of 4" at ORD ORD picked up .7" in that heavy burst going from 3.5" to 4.2" per observer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 0415 PM LIGHTNING 1 W OAKBROOK TERRACE 41.85N 87.99W 12/04/2010 DUPAGE IL TRAINED SPOTTER LIGHTNING OBSERVED WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Lake effect snow advisories all the way now to the Ohio/Indiana state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Never seen IWX use the word "epic" for a LE event, but if the adv on the OH/IN state line verify, it would indeed be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Never seen IWX use the word "epic" for a LE event, but if the adv on the OH/IN state line verify, it would indeed be epic. Yeah, you should know more than me but I can't recall a lot of events that had advisories that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Yeah, you should know more than me but I can't recall a lot of events that had advisories that far east. For some reason, I'm thinking I have seen Ft. Wayne with an ADV once but I don't think it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronsquall Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 SW Ontario also looks to get into the action as well. It is starting to fire up to the southeast of Lake Huron too. Watches are up for London and areas to the south. Here's hoping Perth and Wellington counties get into some action too. The flow will be a bit too northerly for me maybe - at least reading the watches up from Environment Canada. But they are calling for an epic event for sure as they state "Some highways may become virtually impassable over some districts to the southeast of Lake Huron due to the longevity of the falling and drifting snow with excessive snow depths." We'll see what happens over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 For some reason, I'm thinking I have seen Ft. Wayne with an ADV once but I don't think it verified. I'm thinking that we have had a Lake Effect Advisory in Huntington County, Just SW of Ft. Wayne, that did not verify. I can't remember the date though. I do remember one event that verified as an advisory level LES, but wasn't issued this far SE. I can't remember the date of that either. I am now keeping better snow records, more than just amounts and depths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Just got back to Elkhart from a chartered bus trip to Woodfield Mall in Schaumburg for the day. This morning the toll road was just wet, but the snow looked very beautiful on the trees in the metro Chi town area. Coming back here this evening we had very little precip....radar must be showing virga with the column not fully saturated as yet in many areas. We left the mall at 4:45 CST. Only a very slight remains of dusting here at Elkhart at the present but if this LES develops as anticipated that will soon change in the next couple days. The O Hare report listed above surprises me. Of course when you're inside a mall you really don't see things and this can be highly localized. Would anticipate convective snow bursts with this intense a scenario shaping up at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Lake band looks pretty good right now, but it's mostly over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 555 AM EST SUN DEC 5 2010 SHORT TERM ..MAJOR LES EVENT UNDERWAY WRFARW SUPERIOR HANDLING VS NAM12 WRT ANTICIPATED AND RAPID ONSLAUGHT OF MAJOR LAKE AXIS BAND NOW UNDERWAY WITH VSBYS AOB 1/2SM IN UPWARDS OF 30-40 DBZ IN CELLULAR RETURNS WITH TOPS REACHING 13-14 KFT. NEAR ON ORDER OF MAGNITUDE HIR 1000-900 MB CONVERGENCE IN TIGHT THERMAL BAND AMID HI LVL AMBIENT RH THROUGH DEEP MIXED LYR WRN/SWRN GRLTKS. GAVE NOD TO WRF AND RADAR TRENDS IN NEAR TERM AND CONT TO RIDE ONGOING LONG DURATION HEADLINES/AMOUNTS WITH HIR CONF THAN 24 HRS AGO GIVEN SUSTAINED STRONG SIGNALS. LITTLE IN CLOUD SHEAR OF NOTE IN UNIFORM GRDL BACKING CBL FLOW TO 330/25KT FETCH FOR SVRL HRS MIDDAY. POTNL LULL THEN LATE SUNDAY AFTN INTO ERLY TONIGHT AS FLOW BACKS AND BECOMES DISTURBED AS MANITOBA S/WV ENERGY SUCKED SSWD INTO WRN GRTLKS TONIGHT AS SFC LOW NOW OFF CA COAST BOMBS AND IS DRAWN NWD INTO COMPLEX/BLOCKED FUJIWARA ACRS UPSTATE NY/NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY MON. SUSPECT WITH BACKING FLOW AND INCRSD MOIST BL SHEAR THAT BANDS TO SEGUAY INTO MULTIPLE SOMEWHAT WEAKER BANDS AND ALTHOUGH 8H/LK DELTA T STILL NEAR 20C...SUPPRESSED EQL BACK DOWN TO 6-7KFT AND DGZ THICKNESS DECRS SUGGESTS PD OF LESSER ACCUM RATES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. LCLWRF SUGGESTS THREE PRIMARY BANDS TO FORM...WITH ONLY KLWA/KAZO INTO NRN CWA BAND ONLY ONE TO MAINTAIN LK SUPR CONDITIONING. OF CONCERN IN IS HEADLINE FOR STARKE COUNTY THAT DEPENDING UPON SRN BAND STRENGTH AND IF PLACEMNT RMNS IN OR JUST N OF NORTHEAST CORNER OF CO FOR PSBL DOWNGRADE TO ADV OR EXT/CAN OF CURRENT WARNING LTR TDY. RATES THEN INCRS IN EARNEST ERLY MONDAY AM THROUGH LATE MON EVE FOR POOR COMMUTE DAY IN HEADLINED AREA. SUSTAINED DURATION OF 400-450 J/KG LK INDUCED CAPE...8H/LK DELTA 20C AND TO 7H 24-25C...REMERGED THICK/5KFT DGZ IN COLLOCATED UVM MAX. PIVOT AXIS AND DURATION TO GIVE NRN BERRIEN/WRN CASS CO BEST HOPE FOR TWO FEET BY DAYBREAK TUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Snowing lightly here now at 8:15 EST. Ground is now dusted once again. Multiple bands showing up on radar off Lake Michigan. Just the beginning. NWS has now upped my local total to 12-16 inches when all is said and done. Higher amounts in St. Joseph and LaPorte counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Although I'm not expected to get the heaviest snows where I'm located, we've started off quite well with this lake effect here. I live about a minute from Lake Michigan...have gotten a couple inches already from heavy bursts of snow. If it continues, I'm pretty sure we'll be upgraded from our advisory for 4 to 8 inches to a warning with more than 8 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Although I'm not expected to get the heaviest snows where I'm located, we've started off quite well with this lake effect here. I live about a minute from Lake Michigan...have gotten a couple inches already from heavy bursts of snow. If it continues, I'm pretty sure we'll be upgraded from our advisory for 4 to 8 inches to a warning with more than 8 inches... Those multiple bands coming off the length of Lake Michigan with even a Superior connection mean business. They're thinking 1-3 inch rates per hour at times in my region when things get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Those multiple bands coming off the length of Lake Michigan with even a Superior connection mean business. They're thinking 1-3 inch rates per hour at times in my region when things get going. They sure do! Judging from how they have been dumping on us here....you are going to get some really good snows down there with the extra part of Lake Michigan between you and me. I look forward to your reports! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 IND NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/ STRONG N/NW LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ENABLED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 14Z. RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY SUGGEST ENHANCED SNOWFALL FALLING EAST OF A KOKOMO TO NOBLESVILLE TO GREENFIELD AND RUSHVILLE LINE AT 15Z WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...TRAJECTORIES WOULD SUGGEST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE INDY METRO WILL STAY WEST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SUBSTANTIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO THROUGH 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW. RUC/WRF/HRRR DATA ALL INDICATE FURTHER BACKING OF THE WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH THE ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT BANDS SHIFTING TO A MORE W/NW DIRECTION OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY RANDOLPH AND NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTIES POSSIBLY STILL BEING IMPACTED. ----------------------------------------- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1008 AM EST SUN DEC 5 2010 UPDATE THERMAL TROUGH CONTS TO DEEPEN ACRS THIS MORNING W/DRAMATICALLY MORE FOCUSED SNOW BANDING CLEARLY EVIDENT PER ECHO EVOLUTION LAST 3 HRS. CURRENT MEASURED FLW TRAJ AT 330 W/AT LEAST 1 IN/HR RATES OCCURRING IN 30-35 DBZ CORES AND XPC FURTHER CONSOLIDATION/DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO EXISTING HCRS INTO THIS AFTN BFR FLW BACKS AHD OF WK SW TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF MN. XPC ERN MOST BAND TO BECOME DOMINANT THIS AFTN TIED TO UPSTREAM LK SP FETCH AND MAXIMIZED ALG SHORE CVRG W/+SN RECENTLY NOTED AT KBIV. GOING GRIDS CLOSE YET REFINED THROUGH AFTN BASED ON CURRENT ANALYSIS. ERN BAND MAY FACILITATE A NEED FOR CAT UPGRADE ACRS ST JOE MI AND LAGRANGE COUNTIES AND PERHAPS EVEN FURTHER BUT WILL AWAIT HIRES OUTPUT TO ASSESS THAT NEED. MORE TO FOLLOW THIS AFTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 0z Nice, you running your own model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I'm a little confused as to why the HPC outlooks for today and tomorrow don't even indicate any threat for heavy snow (not even 4 inches) across Northern Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Nice, you running your own model? No, my buddy is..... Met Tech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Flurries and occasional hazy glimpses of the sun here at present. 30 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Flurries and occasional hazy glimpses of the sun here at present. 30 degrees no sun here but off and and on snow, nothing real havy but on ocassion below a mile. seems very disorganized still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 less than a half mile visibility for about 15 min now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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