Damage In Tolland Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Evapotranspiration is the big contributor to higher rural dews. It's also the reason why the countrysides tend to be cooler since ET is a latent cooling process. Even in places like where my folks live, it feels really humid during the early morning and again in the evening as they are surrounded by dense woods...and you can almost smell that moist/damp air coming in from the woods. But if indeed we had large areas of ET affecting the sensors and adding about 5 degrees to the dewpoint, then we would see this result in the metars like they do in Des Moines IA and places like that. Makes sense..and is certainly true in my little microclimate where I live. Dews always higher between about 6-10:00 Am and again 6:00-8:00 at night..The dense forest certainly aids in that..as well as keeping it cooler during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Even in places like where my folks live, it feels really humid during the early morning and again in the evening as they are surrounded by dense woods...and you can almost smell that moist/damp air coming in from the woods. But if indeed we had large areas of ET affecting the sensors and adding about 5 degrees to the dewpoint, then we would see this result in the metars like they do in Des Moines IA and places like that. Our university AWOS at Plymouth Arpt is in a cornfield. They basically mowed down a crop circle in the field and placed the AWOS in it. Despite that, the dews tend to run pretty close to the other airport sites in the area.Here's my home station temp error from the MADIS analysis over the last 39 weeks. You can see what the vegetation does to my daytime temps beginning in Apr/May versus the winter. A positive error on this map means the analysis temp is higher than what my station is reporting...IOW I'm cooler than the analysis during the day. This time of year I'm running about 1F cooler during the day than expected...most likely due to the ET since I'm in a very vegetated location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Heat wave potential for ASH, LWM, BOS, CON, and FIT. 91, 91, 90, 90, 90 respectively at those sites today. Thanks for this post/tabulation... 85 in Ayer Mass as of 10:30am is demonstrating an explosive temperature rise the type of which usually does accompany 90+ air masses. BOS never went below 70F overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 NWS has high of 90 here now.. FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 TORCH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 TORCH!!! LOL. heat fetish. just feels like a typical lazy summer day to me...like the ones you think of when you think of summer as a kid. not hot, just summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 84 here as of 10:45. 90 should not be a problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 It will be interesting to see if the NAM's 12z fropa from 48-60 hours through the area gets muted back on future runs. Either way, 90 is as slam dunk today and probably tomorrow too. Again, this is a low impact heat wave with many sites only registering 88 or 89, and plenty of valid 92's in between. Although, given the rate of rise regionally it appears 90 will be easier to come by most places today. Noticed that the 00z operational runs were kind of taking liberties with +NAO, having it be so large that a trough backs down from eastern Canada affectively canceling out this vibe - it looked suspect in both the ECM and GFS, and no sooner, the 06z suggests being careful with that. The CDC and CPC NAO computations are really still arguing for a pretty broad based domain change - it probably would only last for 2-3 weeks before our background negative thing comes back to haunt us (speculation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Our university AWOS at Plymouth Arpt is in a cornfield. They basically mowed down a crop circle in the field and placed the AWOS in it. Despite that, the dews tend to run pretty close to the other airport sites in the area. Here's my home station temp error from the MADIS analysis over the last 39 weeks. You can see what the vegetation does to my daytime temps beginning in Apr/May versus the winter. A positive error on this map means the analysis temp is higher than what my station is reporting...IOW I'm cooler than the analysis during the day. This time of year I'm running about 1F cooler during the day than expected...most likely due to the ET since I'm in a very vegetated location. Wow, pretty cool. Maybe they should do that analysis at Pete's place..lol. Errors would be off the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 BTW, the euro op has had an awful trough bias beyond day 7, for the northeast. I was just looking at the runs from last week, as compared to the 00z run valid for this Saturday, and it's quite remarkable. Ensembles FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 LOL. heat fetish. just feels like a typical lazy summer day to me...like the ones you think of when you think of summer as a kid. not hot, just summer. I hosted a 4th cookout in my lawn yesterday afternoon and evening and it was uncomfortable, in shade, for a lot of folk fwiw -. We did have a little bit of a breeze but it suddenly abated to utter stillness in still lingering 85/68 type air - it's funny how that works. In text book definition that is what it is but I think it really comes down to the duration of exposure. It was 91/67 when we started and only 85/68 by later on and it may as well have been 850 if 85 at that point. We did have a thunderstorm blow up and pass 10 or so mile NE of us, and caught a nice positive CG in the area and a single unexpected clap... I was hoping for a cooling outflow boundary but one never came. It's a bit early to define the day I think - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 BTW, the euro op has had an awful trough bias beyond day 7, for the northeast. I was just looking at the runs from last week, as compared to the 00z run valid for this Saturday, and it's quite remarkable. Ensembles FTW. Euro's been awful.. Remember that run it had last week and you posted Winter coming to the Dacks. It's not even worth looking at anymore days 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Euro's been awful.. Remember that run it had last week and you posted Winter coming to the Dacks. It's not even worth looking at anymore days 6-10 Only if its showing a KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 BTW, the euro op has had an awful trough bias beyond day 7, for the northeast. I was just looking at the runs from last week, as compared to the 00z run valid for this Saturday, and it's quite remarkable. Ensembles FTW. Yeah, I was just indirectly commenting on that trough - the 00z runs went ridiculous with it like some father who threw his hands and went 'jesus, go ahead and party then'... +NAO domain by and large all quadratures of the field, too, and actually BOTH models pivot a trough S through eastern Canada like January 1994. Seems dubious on a lot of levels - and the 06z op GFS shows that.. No no. The +NAO with a preceding -PNA that only neutralizes don't really provide impetus in July for that kind of behavior. Tossed the 00z runs beyond D5 on both accounts. Not saying I think it will be blazing, but...I am starting to suspect 06z esque type depictions may have a better shot at verifying over the next 10 days to 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Euro's been awful.. Remember that run it had last week and you posted Winter coming to the Dacks. It's not even worth looking at anymore days 6-10 That's the run I'm referring to. Eh, the GFS isn't all that better either, but this is a case where ensembles are much better telling the story. Again, I mean for the overall pattern....I'm not talking about a 24 hr forecast or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Euro's been awful.. Remember that run it had last week and you posted Winter coming to the Dacks. It's not even worth looking at anymore days 6-10 ...there aren't many runs worth looking at in that time range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Yeah, I was just indirectly commenting on that trough - the 00z runs went ridiculous with it like some father who threw his hands and went 'jesus, go ahead and party then'... +NAO domain by and large all quadratures of the field, too, and actually BOTH models pivot a trough S through eastern Canada like January 1994. Seems dubious on a lot of levels - and the 06z op GFS shows that.. No no. The +NAO with a preceding -PNA that only neutralizes don't really provide impetus in July for that kind of behavior. Tossed the 00z runs beyond D5 on both accounts. Not saying I think it will be blazing, but...I am starting to suspect 06z esque type depictions may have a better shot at verifying over the next 10 days to 2 weeks. As an example, the euro op has the 552 thickness line kissing PSM at hr 222, while the euro ensembles struggle to get the 564 decameter contour to PSM. It shouldn't be news though, that the op runs can be on crack beyond day 7. We harp this pretty well....but I'm just stating this as a FWIW type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Yeah, I was just indirectly commenting on that trough - the 00z runs went ridiculous with it like some father who threw his hands and went 'jesus, go ahead and party then'... +NAO domain by and large all quadratures of the field, too, and actually BOTH models pivot a trough S through eastern Canada like January 1994. Seems dubious on a lot of levels - and the 06z op GFS shows that.. No no. The +NAO with a preceding -PNA that only neutralizes don't really provide impetus in July for that kind of behavior. Tossed the 00z runs beyond D5 on both accounts. Not saying I think it will be blazing, but...I am starting to suspect 06z esque type depictions may have a better shot at verifying over the next 10 days to 2 weeks. Is that what your folks did when you had that blowout party in the basement last summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I hosted a 4th cookout in my lawn yesterday afternoon and evening and it was uncomfortable, in shade, for a lot of folk fwiw -. We did have a little bit of a breeze but it suddenly abated to utter stillness in still lingering 85/68 type air - it's funny how that works. In text book definition that is what it is but I think it really comes down to the duration of exposure. It was 91/67 when we started and only 85/68 by later on and it may as well have been 850 if 85 at that point. We did have a thunderstorm blow up and pass 10 or so mile NE of us, and caught a nice positive CG in the area and a single unexpected clap... I was hoping for a cooling outflow boundary but one never came. It's a bit early to define the day I think - no doubt it's warm/hot. i think "low impact" like you said is a good way to describe it. obviously it's all relative. this is the kind of heat that we saw a lot of last year when we *weren't* in the midst of a heat wave. LOL. the "cool downs" last summer were 85-90 days. if this is the kind of warmth that the summer will see, i'd think most folks would be OK with that. 86-93F type stuff is not all that difficult to come by in SNE. it's the 3 or 4 day stretches of 96-102 stuff, bookended by 88-92 that starts the problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 12z NAM has some decent convection for S NH tomorrow evening...SBCAPE 1500+ and LI's running around -5. Maybe we can get more strong gullywashers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 lol...not that we need a reminder...but look how ugly last july was (BDL) CXUS51 KBOX 011200 CF6BDL PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: HARTFORD CT MONTH: JULY YEAR: 2010 LATITUDE: 41 55 N LONGITUDE: 72 41 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 75 52 64 -8 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.8 23 290 M M 4 29 300 2 82 51 67 -5 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 6.1 16 360 M M 3 31 360 3 89 55 72 -1 0 7 0.00 0.0 0 4.4 13 250 M M 3 17 270 4 94 60 77 4 0 12 0.00 0.0 0 4.1 17 290 M M 6 18 21 290 5 97 65 81 8 0 16 0.00 0.0 0 5.0 13 320 M M 4 18 310 6 102 75 89 16 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 5.1 18 320 M M 2 8 23 310 7 100 75 88 15 0 23 T 0.0 0 5.2 22 160 M M 5 8 25 180 8 92 73 83 10 0 18 0.00 0.0 0 8.0 16 150 M M 6 18 21 150 9 91 72 82 8 0 17 T 0.0 0 9.3 20 160 M M 6 1 24 150 10 84 70 77 3 0 12 0.69 0.0 0 4.2 24 300 M M 8 1 31 300 11 90 67 79 5 0 14 0.00 0.0 0 4.5 12 40 M M 5 128 18 350 12 93 67 80 6 0 15 0.00 0.0 0 6.3 20 160 M M 6 1 24 160 13 88 74 81 7 0 16 0.51 0.0 0 7.6 17 170 M M 9 18 24 140 14 82 72 77 3 0 12 0.83 0.0 0 3.8 12 100 M M 9 1 14 360 15 85 67 76 2 0 11 0.00 0.0 0 4.8 10 110 M M 7 15 40 16 93 70 82 8 0 17 0.38 0.0 0 7.6 32 260 M M 6 138 45 270 17 93 71 82 8 0 17 0.01 0.0 0 6.7 23 260 M M 5 138 29 260 18 90 68 79 5 0 14 0.11 0.0 0 6.4 20 300 M M 5 3 25 310 19 89 67 78 4 0 13 T 0.0 0 5.7 16 170 M M 7 22 200 20 87 69 78 4 0 13 0.00 0.0 0 4.7 10 10 M M 6 1 13 350 21 90 67 79 5 0 14 0.01 0.0 0 5.4 21 280 M M 7 13 28 280 22 86 67 77 3 0 12 0.00 0.0 0 8.0 23 300 M M 5 31 310 23 74 66 70 -5 0 5 0.57 0.0 0 3.8 13 160 M M 9 13 18 200 24 90 71 81 7 0 16 0.12 0.0 0 4.4 23 330 M M 8 1238 31 330 25 87 65 76 2 0 11 T 0.0 0 7.1 18 300 M M 7 18 23 310 26 85 63 74 0 0 9 0.00 0.0 0 10.4 25 300 M M 1 33 290 27 90 62 76 2 0 11 0.00 0.0 0 4.7 16 290 M M 2 21 280 28 90 62 76 2 0 11 0.00 0.0 0 8.5 20 210 M M 3 26 220 29 88 65 77 3 0 12 0.06 0.0 0 7.9 18 320 M M 5 18 25 310 30 83 57 70 -4 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 5.3 16 300 M M 2 21 310 31 81 57 69 -5 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 5.1 10 10 M M 5 20 340 ================================================================================ SM 2740 2042 1 383 3.29 0.0 189.9 M 166 ================================================================================ AV 88.4 65.9 6.1 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 32 260 # 45 270 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 12z NAM has some decent convection for S NH tomorrow evening...SBCAPE 1500+ and LI's running around -5. Maybe we can get more strong gullywashers. You know what I miss, ...it's 94/70 and your dripping no matter what you do, then a gust front comes in and knocks 20 off the top in less then 5 minutes! It's been awhile since that's happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 lol...not that we need a reminder...but look how ugly last july was (BDL) that stretch from the 3rd to the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 not intending to pimp my own stuff but new site is finally done...not really built with weenies in mind but added a couple of products for the more weather-inclined individual...thought this link below might be useful along with the dewpoint ones etc. (linked under "current weather") that are listed there. you can zoom in, scroll around etc. the GE plugin tends to be a little buggie though so use caution if clicking on individual obs sites. sometimes it'll load, sometimes it just stops running. this is essentially an interactive version of the pdfamily one. http://www.capecodwe...t-temperatures/ also if you scroll down, the HPC precip forecasts zoomed into SNE in GE/kml also available. Well done! I like the hi-res image of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 that stretch from the 3rd to the 9th. I miss those days last year. What a summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Well done! I like the hi-res image of the day thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 You know what I miss, ...it's 94/70 and your dripping no matter what you do, then a gust front comes in and knocks 20 off the top in less then 5 minutes! It's been awhile since that's happened. We had that in Newburyport yesterday. Went from 90 to 70 in about 10 minutes. What a cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Maybe Phil can put a "weenie of the day" link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I miss those days last year. What a summer what an awful month that was at BDL. and the end of august to beginning of september was another brutal stretch. i had forgotten about how hot it was between 8/29-9/2. terrible. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Maybe Phil can put a "weenie of the day" link. haha...that would be awesome. go back through the previous day's posts and find the biggest weenie post. link it. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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