The Hudson Valley Thread

[IrishRob17]

Looks like about .50" here, a nice little surprise.

[Wx4cast]

Snow Fall amounts

[Radders]

I think I have around 1.5 - 2 inches here, so those snowfall amounts match well. Nice to see the ground white finally!!!

[xram]

1" here...nice surprise.

[snywx]

Looks like about .50" here, a nice little surprise.

Looks like I got about the same... Some parts of lower Westchester had 2" or so.

[HeinzGuy]

I probably measured too late but about 1.25 in Kingston

[IrishRob17]

I probably measured too late but about 1.25 in Kingston

Hey, glad to see that you made it over here!

[IrishRob17]

Hey Raddars! I see you were just giving a breakdown on the Euro in the NYC forum. Things obviously have improved in the past 24 hours or so, how's it looking up our way? Sounds like we get in on at least some of the fun now?

[Radders]

Hey Raddars! I see you were just giving a breakdown on the Euro in the NYC forum. Things obviously have improved in the past 24 hours or so, how's it looking up our way? Sounds like we get in on at least some of the fun now?

Definitely looking much better for our area, but there is a sharp gradient (as you would expect) from Northwest to Southeast... I would say the HV area is running between 1-1.75 running from NW to SE (more SE) (haven't looked that closely) but that is conservative. I think most of us in this thread in the lower/mid hudson valley, are in the 1.5 range.

I will try and post in both forums in future runs, now that we are heading into crunch time!

[Logan11]

From what I have seen of the Euro - this is the dream scenario for the Lower/Mid Hudson Valley and nice for the Upper Valley also. It does have 2/1978 written on it somewhat and that was the best storm I was ever in while in the Mid Hudson Valley. My Dad worked at IBM POU and it took him about 4 hours to get the 20 miles up to near Kingston where he had to sleep on a guys floor. That was epic...love to see that again.

Definitely looking much better for our area, but there is a sharp gradient (as you would expect) from Northwest to Southeast... I would say the HV area is running between 1-1.75 running from NW to SE (more SE) (haven't looked that closely) but that is conservative. I think most of us in this thread in the lower/mid hudson valley, are in the 1.5 range.

I will try and post in both forums in future runs, now that we are heading into crunch time!

[hudsonvalley21]

From what I have seen of the Euro - this is the dream scenario for the Lower/Mid Hudson Valley and nice for the Upper Valley also. It does have 2/1978 written on it somewhat and that was the best storm I was ever in while in the Mid Hudson Valley. My Dad worked at IBM POU and it took him about 4 hours to get the 20 miles up to near Kingston where he had to sleep on a guys floor. That was epic...love to see that again.

We'll see. I would wait another run or two too see what they show. There was alot of flip flopping the last few days. If it does pan out the lake regions will have their fun too. Looks like a late night tonite looking at dr. no.

[IrishRob17]

Definitely looking much better for our area, but there is a sharp gradient (as you would expect) from Northwest to Southeast... I would say the HV area is running between 1-1.75 running from NW to SE (more SE) (haven't looked that closely) but that is conservative. I think most of us in this thread in the lower/mid hudson valley, are in the 1.5 range.

I will try and post in both forums in future runs, now that we are heading into crunch time!

Thanks. I just got a look at Tombo's map so I have a better idea now. I'm dreading another storm like 12/19/09 when I got 1 whole inch but that doesn't look like it's in the cards as of now anyway

[snywx]

From what I have seen of the Euro - this is the dream scenario for the Lower/Mid Hudson Valley and nice for the Upper Valley also. It does have 2/1978 written on it somewhat and that was the best storm I was ever in while in the Mid Hudson Valley. My Dad worked at IBM POU and it took him about 4 hours to get the 20 miles up to near Kingston where he had to sleep on a guys floor. That was epic...love to see that again.

I was one year old during that storm so I wouldnt know first hand On the other hand... SNOWICANE II

[snywx]

Thanks. I just got a look at Tombo's map so I have a better idea now. I'm dreading another storm like 12/19/09 when I got 1 whole inch but that doesn't look like it's in the cards as of now anyway

What a disaster that storm was for up here.. This time the PV looks to get out of the way and pull this sucker west just in time.

[hudsonvalley21]

Thanks. I just got a look at Tombo's map so I have a better idea now. I'm dreading another storm like 12/19/09 when I got 1 whole inch but that doesn't look like it's in the cards as of now anyway

You might get a call from the TH- Record tonite.

[snywx]

From what I have seen of the Euro - this is the dream scenario for the Lower/Mid Hudson Valley and nice for the Upper Valley also. It does have 2/1978 written on it somewhat and that was the best storm I was ever in while in the Mid Hudson Valley. My Dad worked at IBM POU and it took him about 4 hours to get the 20 miles up to near Kingston where he had to sleep on a guys floor. That was epic...love to see that again.

Whats funny about all of this is how Will was telling you and I after the 00z Euro run that a further westward jog is unlikely... I guess its safe to say that at this point in time anything is possible.. Now that the infamous s/w over the southwest is coming ashore we might even see a further tug to the west come 00z tonight!

[TJay]

I was one year old during that storm so I wouldnt know first hand On the other hand... SNOWICANE II

You were born the year I graduated high school.

I'm started to get enthused about Sunday/Monday now that we have have some major model agreement of a westward shift for the first time the week.

[snywx]

You were born the year I graduated high school.

I'm started to get enthused about Sunday/Monday now that we have have some major model agreement of a westward shift for the first time the week.

You old man you...

[IrishRob17]

You might get a call from the TH- Record tonite.

Those days are done for me but thanks for remembering

[TJay]

I'm started to get less enthused about Sunday/Monday now that we have have some major model agreement of a westward east shift for the first 99th time the week.

[IrishRob17]

LOL! Yeah, crazy shifts all week. I do find some entertainment value whe nreading the various model threads with all the contradictions. More people should remember that it's better to be quiet and thought of as a fool rather than open your mouth and remove all doubt. You guys all know what I'm talking about because it's been going on for years.

"It's more amped"

"It's flat"

"It's further east"

"It's a tad west"

"not as juicy"

"This baby is loaded with moisture"

'It's a thread the needle situation"

"game over"

"match set point"

"It's not over yet"

"We'll see the change at 12z"

"This is ouitside the accurate zone of the model"

"This is when the model nails systems"

You can find all of this posted all within about 10 minutes of each other during any of the model run threads>

[TJay]

LOL! Yeah, crazy shifts all week. I do find some entertainment value whe nreading the various model threads with all the contradictions. More people should remember that it's better to be quiet and thought of as a fool rather than open your mouth and remove all doubt. You guys all know what I'm talking about because it's been going on for years.

"It's more amped"

"It's flat"

"It's further east"

"It's a tad west"

"not as juicy"

"This baby is loaded with moisture"

'It's a thread the needle situation"

"game over"

"match set point"

"It's not over yet"

"We'll see the change at 12z"

"This is ouitside the accurate zone of the model"

"This is when the model nails systems"

You can find all of this posted all within about 10 minutes of each other during any of the model run threads>

"Suffering from convective feedback"

"Euro is king"

"6Z and 18Z runs are garbage because XYZ aren’t included"

"The NOGAPS, KMA, RGEM and JMA are in agreement"

"Lee Goldberg's facebook page says"

The modeling this week has been awful, we were spoiled last year when most storms were pretty much locked in early and often had the correct general idea. Its going to be a tuff winter.

On the plus side for the model threads in the NYC/Philly section, Tombo, Radders and Earthlight and the many Mets posting real time model info and analysis has made them enjoyable and informative

[IrishRob17]

"Suffering from convective feedback"

"Euro is king"

"6Z and 18Z runs are garbage because XYZ aren’t included"

"The NOGAPS, KMA, RGEM and JMA are in agreement"

"Lee Goldberg's facebook page says"

The modeling this week has been awful, we were spoiled last year when most storms were pretty much locked in early and often had the correct general idea. Its going to be a tuff winter.

On the plus side for the model threads in the NYC/Philly section, Tombo, Radders and Earthlight and the many Mets posting real time model info and analysis has made them enjoyable and informative

This is a total selfish post but many of those storms locked in to our south and left us out. Then of course we had the Snowicane which was incredible but that storm was also an incredible pain in the ass for me personally and not all that enjoyable from about 11pm that Thursday night on thru that weekend. It's would be nice to get a decent dumping of powder but I guess we're all looking for that.

[TJay]

This is a total selfish post but many of those storms locked in to our south and left us out. Then of course we had the Snowicane which was incredible but that storm was also an incredible pain in the ass for me personally and not all that enjoyable from about 11pm that Thursday night on thru that weekend. It's would be nice to get a decent dumping of powder but I guess we're all looking for that.

If I suffered power and heat loss like your family and others did as a result of the snowcane, that might change my mind about storms.

[Radders]

So......What are you folks all thinking with regard to the latest storm threat? High risk, high reward setups like this coastal storm threat make me nervous these days, I just can't get the winter of 2009-2010 out of my head, with all the near misses to our south. Seems with this level of historic blocking in place, it just feels like we might get fringed while those to the south (or east) cash in. The next two days of model consensus building are going to be huge, but at this point, I am not ready to get too emotionally involved yet.. The h5 set up really is beautiful though.. The potential is there for sure.

[IrishRob17]

So......What are you folks all thinking with regard to the latest storm threat? High risk, high reward setups like this coastal storm threat make me nervous these days, I just can't get the winter of 2009-2010 out of my head, with all the near misses to our south. Seems with this level of historic blocking in place, it just feels like we might get fringed while those to the south (or east) cash in. The next two days of model consensus building are going to be huge, but at this point, I am not ready to get too emotionally involved yet.. The h5 set up really is beautiful though.. The potential is there for sure.

You summed up my feelings rather well. As I pointed out above I still have a bit of a bitter taste in my mouth from last winter too. To miss out on so many storms and then have the headaches of no water, heat, or electric for close to four days with the one big storm we got sucked. Not that I expect another storm like that but I think that I'll still feeling funny until I actually measure a decent powdery snowfall IMBY.

Another thing that I didn't like about the Snowicane was that the snow didn't last very long because it was late in the season and warm after the storm. I love a nice snowpack, a deep snowpack would be a bonus, but I can't be picky. I just love when we have a snowcover for weeks on end, which doesn't happen often I realize. I was spoiled during the winter of 93-94. We had a snow pack from mid-late December all the way through March. I measured a 16-18" snowpack on St. Patrick's Day 1994. That was awesome but I don't know when I may see it again in Orange County. We had a great snowpack going in 95-96 too, about 3 feet before the rain storm came throguh in January and wiped it all out. In 95-96 we had more snowfall but 93-94 was a better winter overall for me because the snowpack stayed solid until spring.

[TJay]

I try not getting pulled in to these storms unless it’s on the models a few days out. That doesn’t mean I don’t track them but the vast majority of these storms don’t occur verbatim as they were modeled 7 days out. I can live without the disruption and work heavy snow causes.

[Radders]

You summed up my feelings rather well. As I pointed out above I still have a bit of a bitter taste in my mouth from last winter too. To miss out on so many storms and then have the headaches of no water, heat, or electric for close to four days with the one big storm we got sucked. Not that I expect another storm like that but I think that I'll still feeling funny until I actually measure a decent powdery snowfall IMBY.

Another thing that I didn't like about the Snowicane was that the snow didn't last very long because it was late in the season and warm after the storm. I love a nice snowpack, a deep snowpack would be a bonus, but I can't be picky. I just love when we have a snowcover for weeks on end, which doesn't happen often I realize. I was spoiled during the winter of 93-94. We had a snow pack from mid-late December all the way through March. I measured a 16-18" snowpack on St. Patrick's Day 1994. That was awesome but I don't know when I may see it again in Orange County. We had a great snowpack going in 95-96 too, about 3 feet before the rain storm came throguh in January and wiped it all out. In 95-96 we had more snowfall but 93-94 was a better winter overall for me because the snowpack stayed solid until spring.

I hear you on the snowicane, it was a little bit too intense with the heavy wet snow, falling trees, and exploding transformers. I would just take a nice cold 6-10 inch powder type affair... And then have that topped up every week or two, with incremental snowfalls to keep the base going.

[IrishRob17]

I hear you on the snowicane, it was a little bit too intense with the heavy wet snow, falling trees, and exploding transformers. I would just take a nice cold 6-10 inch powder type affair... And then have that topped up every week or two, with incremental snowfalls to keep the base going.

Exactly and the winter of 93-94 that I'm referring to had events like that. My record keeping wasn't very detailed back then but the biggest snowfall I have recorded that winter was 12", which happened twice. Otherwise it was a bunch of smaller events but they just kept coming along with the cold temps.

[Logan11]

You guys around Orange County must have been closer to that snow/ice demarcation in that winter of 93-94. I got 95% snow from those series of storms in Saugerties, but I remember the city was having mostly ice. None of those storms were huge in a KU sense, but I think the biggest at my place was about 15 inches.

I remember one crazy day where we had an overunning event and a cold high seeping low level cold down the HV. We had a snow event where it started snowing at like -8F in Saugerties and peaked at like 10-15F. SWF was also like 10F, but they actually had FZRA at least for awhile. NYC was an ice storm.

Exactly and the winter of 93-94 that I'm referring to had events like that. My record keeping wasn't very detailed back then but the biggest snowfall I have recorded that winter was 12", which happened twice. Otherwise it was a bunch of smaller events but they just kept coming along with the cold temps.