Scott747 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Track might be adjust a tad to the S and W at the longer range. Intensity is definitely becoming problematic especially give what recon is showing. LGEM is still showing 105kts as it approaches the YP with it not really taking off for another 24hrs and then it's off to the races. I'd guess that might note it but with the poor condition Ernesto is currently showing they won't be particularly enthused about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I think the cyclone team may want to reconsider. Thanks for the suggestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 Track might be adjust a tad to the S and W at the longer range. Intensity is definitely becoming problematic especially give what recon is showing. LGEM is still showing 105kts as it approaches the YP with it not really taking off for another 24hrs and then it's off to the races. I'd guess that might note it but with the poor condition Ernesto is currently showing they won't be particularly enthused about it. Wow-- that has got to be the most messed-up intensity guidance I have ever seen. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Glass half full optimistic, it probably won't get much weaker, from here on in until its hits the YP or CA, it will be getting farther from South America and convergence should be increasing. I am starting to get concerned it won't have enough time over the BoC to really redevelop. ETA: Speaking of convergence, perhaps, first signs of convection trying to fire well ahead of Ernesto. Wow-- that has got to be the most messed-up intensity guidance I have ever seen. Just wow. At this point josh, if Ernesto survives, the second landfall will likely be the far stronger one after it crosses the YP. I think its finally time to start acknowledging the global models in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Wow-- that has got to be the most messed-up intensity guidance I have ever seen. Just wow. Don't worry TMI. We have a few global models that seem to have things under control. The rest are unneeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 At this point josh, if Ernesto survives, the second landfall will likely be the far stronger one after it crosses the YP. I think its finally time to start acknowledging the global models in the forecast. Well, yeah, it is kind of looking that way now. I'm just so puzzled by this system. The thing I hate about the deep-S route from the Yucatan to areas S of Tampico is that there's not a lot of time to assess, pull the trigger, and get there: the cyclone's path from one coast to the other is very short. My Karl chase in Veracruz was a harsh rush job-- barely got there in time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Well, yeah, it is kind of looking that way now. I'm just so puzzled by this system. The thing I hate about the deep-S route from the Yucatan to areas S of Tampico is that there's not a lot of time to assess, pull the trigger, and get there: the cyclone's path from one coast to the other is very short. My Karl chase in Veracruz was a harsh rush job-- barely got there in time: I wish I had better news for you, but best case scenario is looking just like that. At worst, this system will degenerate, and won't have time to get its act back together before landfall. That has been what the ECMWF has been suggesting all along and why its track has been so far to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Heh. 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Heh. 0z Euro. Who knew that Karl had a younger brother. This is the first time also that the ECMWF has not completely dissipated the surface circulation and is by far the most impressive run of Ernesto to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The GFS and Euro Ensembles 'thicken the plot' further... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Go Euro Go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 Just sooooooooooo confused by this system. The Euro getting all bullish now is the perfect twist to this plot. That track is very Karl-like-- as Phil pointed out-- and would be similarly difficult to chase. If it does make it across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche, I'd want to see it gain more latitude-- to give it more room to intensify and me more time to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Just sooooooooooo confused by this system. The Euro getting all bullish now is the perfect twist to this plot. That track is very Karl-like-- as Phil pointed out-- and would be similarly difficult to chase. If it does make it across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche, I'd want to see it gain more latitude-- to give it more room to intensify and me more time to get there. This would have been all the more easy if Ernesto was already better organized. The earlier it feels that weakness, the earlier it turns further northward. Intensity @ landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula is absolutely key. Unlike Karl, there will be a large weakness opening up over Texas so there is an opportunity for further north movement were the storm to be stronger than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 This would have been all the more easy if Ernesto was already better organized. The earlier it feels that weakness, the earlier it turns further northward. Intensity @ landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula is absolutely key. Unlike Karl, there will be a large weakness opening up over Texas so there is an opportunity for further north movement were the storm to be stronger than expected. A "large weakness"? Interesting. It's the first I'm really hearing that discussed-- or did the GFDL have it right all along...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 A "large weakness"? Interesting. It's the first I'm really hearing that discussed-- or did the GFDL have it right all along...? Its been in the ECMWF for a while, its just it never had the system being substancial enough to actually feel the weakness. Now that it looks quite a bit more formidable in the model it was able to draw up Ernesto a good 3-5 degrees further north. The 06z GFS meanwhile swapped with the ECMWF and now takes Ernesto into Central America with the full circulation never getting back over open waters. The GFS by in large has preformed better with Ernesto than the ECMWF, so thats not something that can be discounted either. Again best case scenario is probably something like what the ECMWF outlines, except somewhat further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 Its been in the ECMWF for a while, its just it never had the system being substancial enough to actually feel the weakness. Now that it looks quite a bit more formidable in the model it was able to draw up Ernesto a good 3-5 degrees further north. The 06z GFS meanwhile swapped with the ECMWF and now takes Ernesto into Central America with the full circulation never getting back over open waters. The GFS by in large has preformed better with Ernesto than the ECMWF, so thats not something that can be discounted either. Again best case scenario is probably something like what the ECMWF outlines, except somewhat further north. OK, gotcha. I saw the harsh-S GFS track. How funny it would be if the GFS pw3ns the Euro again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I remember, 7 years ago, how well the GFDL did with Katrina. Mid-life crisis? Substance abuse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 It's 6pm and the cap is holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 OK, gotcha. I saw the harsh-S GFS track. How funny it would be if the GFS pw3ns the Euro again. It wouldn't suprise me since the GFS was shown to perform better in the tropics, especially with regards to track forecasts after the recent upgrade to its data assimilation system. http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/GFS_20120522_HybEnKF3DVAR.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 lol Wouldn't it be sweet if Euro is correct, and remnant Ernesto develops a surface circulation Saturday in the E-Pac, and on Day 10 is a hurricane potentially threatening Los Cabos, and Johs winds up with award winning videos on U-Tube. Glass 15/64th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 It's something to watch-- although it ain't a slam-dunk kind of setup. The cyclone seems to be moving parallel-ish to the Baja Peninsula-- awkward from a chase perspective, and reminiscent of Jimena. But, hey, it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Scott just called me-- woke me up outta bed-- with some talk of a close eyewall. I thought he was joking. He wasn't. Wtf?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Scott just called me-- woke me up outta bed-- with some talk of a close eyewall. I thought he was joking. He wasn't. Wtf?? Yeah Ernesto is a strange guy. I'm really interested to see what they find on this pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Yeah Ernesto is a strange guy. I'm really interested to see what they find on this pass. Oh, yeah. I'm in some suspense about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Looks like winds are catching up and pressure is still dropping... Probably on the cusp of being upgraded to a cane. Still another pass left before the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Looks like winds are catching up and pressure is still dropping... Probably on the cusp of being upgraded to a cane. Still another pass left before the next advisory. Can't believe this. What a twisted system-- like it's playing games. I just eMailed you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Down another 3 mb with the latest data and recent images are looking salty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 So nice from frame to frame.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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