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Jonesing for a Chase


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Track might be adjust a tad to the S and W at the longer range. Intensity is definitely becoming problematic especially give what recon is showing. LGEM is still showing 105kts as it approaches the YP with it not really taking off for another 24hrs and then it's off to the races. I'd guess that might note it but with the poor condition Ernesto is currently showing they won't be particularly enthused about it.

al052012_inten.png

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Track might be adjust a tad to the S and W at the longer range. Intensity is definitely becoming problematic especially give what recon is showing. LGEM is still showing 105kts as it approaches the YP with it not really taking off for another 24hrs and then it's off to the races. I'd guess that might note it but with the poor condition Ernesto is currently showing they won't be particularly enthused about it.

al052012_inten.png

Wow-- that has got to be the most messed-up intensity guidance I have ever seen. Just wow.

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Glass half full optimistic, it probably won't get much weaker, from here on in until its hits the YP or CA, it will be getting farther from South America and convergence should be increasing.

I am starting to get concerned it won't have enough time over the BoC to really redevelop.

ETA: Speaking of convergence, perhaps, first signs of convection trying to fire well ahead of Ernesto.

Wow-- that has got to be the most messed-up intensity guidance I have ever seen. Just wow.

At this point josh, if Ernesto survives, the second landfall will likely be the far stronger one after it crosses the YP. I think its finally time to start acknowledging the global models in the forecast.

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At this point josh, if Ernesto survives, the second landfall will likely be the far stronger one after it crosses the YP. I think its finally time to start acknowledging the global models in the forecast.

Well, yeah, it is kind of looking that way now. I'm just so puzzled by this system. The thing I hate about the deep-S route from the Yucatan to areas S of Tampico is that there's not a lot of time to assess, pull the trigger, and get there: the cyclone's path from one coast to the other is very short. My Karl chase in Veracruz was a harsh rush job-- barely got there in time:

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Well, yeah, it is kind of looking that way now. I'm just so puzzled by this system. The thing I hate about the deep-S route from the Yucatan to areas S of Tampico is that there's not a lot of time to assess, pull the trigger, and get there: the cyclone's path from one coast to the other is very short. My Karl chase in Veracruz was a harsh rush job-- barely got there in time:

I wish I had better news for you, but best case scenario is looking just like that. At worst, this system will degenerate, and won't have time to get its act back together before landfall. That has been what the ECMWF has been suggesting all along and why its track has been so far to the south.

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Just sooooooooooo confused by this system. The Euro getting all bullish now is the perfect twist to this plot. That track is very Karl-like-- as Phil pointed out-- and would be similarly difficult to chase. If it does make it across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche, I'd want to see it gain more latitude-- to give it more room to intensify and me more time to get there.

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Just sooooooooooo confused by this system. The Euro getting all bullish now is the perfect twist to this plot. That track is very Karl-like-- as Phil pointed out-- and would be similarly difficult to chase. If it does make it across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche, I'd want to see it gain more latitude-- to give it more room to intensify and me more time to get there.

This would have been all the more easy if Ernesto was already better organized. The earlier it feels that weakness, the earlier it turns further northward. Intensity @ landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula is absolutely key. Unlike Karl, there will be a large weakness opening up over Texas so there is an opportunity for further north movement were the storm to be stronger than expected.

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This would have been all the more easy if Ernesto was already better organized. The earlier it feels that weakness, the earlier it turns further northward. Intensity @ landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula is absolutely key. Unlike Karl, there will be a large weakness opening up over Texas so there is an opportunity for further north movement were the storm to be stronger than expected.

A "large weakness"? Interesting. It's the first I'm really hearing that discussed-- or did the GFDL have it right all along...?

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A "large weakness"? Interesting. It's the first I'm really hearing that discussed-- or did the GFDL have it right all along...?

Its been in the ECMWF for a while, its just it never had the system being substancial enough to actually feel the weakness. Now that it looks quite a bit more formidable in the model it was able to draw up Ernesto a good 3-5 degrees further north. The 06z GFS meanwhile swapped with the ECMWF and now takes Ernesto into Central America with the full circulation never getting back over open waters. The GFS by in large has preformed better with Ernesto than the ECMWF, so thats not something that can be discounted either. Again best case scenario is probably something like what the ECMWF outlines, except somewhat further north.

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Its been in the ECMWF for a while, its just it never had the system being substancial enough to actually feel the weakness. Now that it looks quite a bit more formidable in the model it was able to draw up Ernesto a good 3-5 degrees further north. The 06z GFS meanwhile swapped with the ECMWF and now takes Ernesto into Central America with the full circulation never getting back over open waters. The GFS by in large has preformed better with Ernesto than the ECMWF, so thats not something that can be discounted either. Again best case scenario is probably something like what the ECMWF outlines, except somewhat further north.

OK, gotcha.

I saw the harsh-S GFS track. How funny it would be if the GFS pw3ns the Euro again.

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OK, gotcha.

I saw the harsh-S GFS track. How funny it would be if the GFS pw3ns the Euro again.

It wouldn't suprise me since the GFS was shown to perform better in the tropics, especially with regards to track forecasts after the recent upgrade to its data assimilation system.

http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/GFS_20120522_HybEnKF3DVAR.htm

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lol

Wouldn't it be sweet if Euro is correct, and remnant Ernesto develops a surface circulation Saturday in the E-Pac, and on Day 10 is a hurricane potentially threatening Los Cabos, and Johs winds up with award winning videos on U-Tube.

Glass 15/64th.

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012080600!!chart.gif

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