TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Warning for Orange and Putnam dont blink when the line comes through or you may miss the severe weather. This thing is on the express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 still not impressed from NYC SW, hopefully it will change but all the energy is still north of the area. If you have any doubts, just look at the outflow boundries on radar, that line is headed right for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 def. some kind of outflow boundary triggering these smaller cells ahead of the main line. Can even see it on the radar. Pretty cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 dont blink when the line comes through or you may miss the severe weather. This thing is on the express. those warnings only say the line is moving at 30mph. Thats fast but not that fast, the line is not thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 One worry I have is that there little pulse cells developing ahead of the main line that may rob the energy and weaken it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 These are the type of gullywash storms that can drop .75 of rain in less than 15 minutes.There is going to be flash flooding on some of the area roadways tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 it's going to hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 New HRRR has the storms into NYC by 5pm. 4pm: 5pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 still not impressed from NYC SW, hopefully it will change but all the energy is still north of the area. look at the orientation of the line how does it do anything except drop SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Impressed with what I'm seeing n and e of Albany, from Albany to the SW is a very different animal, no increase in forward speed and no sign of a cold pool developing...radar sig for a cold pool is an area of cyclonic moderate rain to the ne of the derecho (I do in fact think that is a derecho sig in NH/CT/MA/NY, just not west of Albany...yet at any rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 CMC Short Term Model. Forecast radar at 01Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 look at the orientation of the line how does it do anything except drop SE? easy, the line out runs the dynamics are falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 easy, the line out runs the dynamics are falls apart. so why did the SPC issue a watch for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 still not impressed from NYC SW, hopefully it will change but all the energy is still north of the area. You mean the 5000 Kg/J of SBCAPE that is sitting right over NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 so why did the SPC issue a watch for us? looks more isolated instead of the impressive squall line west of boston. As far as SPC, why did they issue a TOR watch last week, because the conditions were favorable to produce tornadoes. Does not mean we were going to get hit today? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Severe thunderstorm warning for northeastern Sussex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Severe thunderstorm warning for northeastern Sussex county. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 333 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT * AT 330 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUSSEX...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTAGUE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Nice T Storms that have just popped up in W PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks more isolated instead of the impressive squall line west of boston. As far as SPC, why did they issue a TOR watch last week, because the conditions were favorable to produce tornadoes. Does not mean we were going to get hit today? No. they are absolutely thinking the line will reach us. read the text of the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Getting better shear down now toward NYC and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Severe thunderstorm warning for northeastern Sussex county. How do you think our area will do with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks more isolated instead of the impressive squall line west of boston. As far as SPC, why did they issue a TOR watch last week, because the conditions were favorable to produce tornadoes. Does not mean we were going to get hit today? No. Honestly go troll elswhere. There appears to be very little chance that at least part of our area doesn't get hit with that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 LOL at my NWS forecast: A chance of showers and thunderstorms' date=' mainly before 1am. Some storms could be severe, with [b']damaging winds, gusty winds,[/b] and frequent lightning. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. West wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. I think they meant to say "Large Hail and Damaging Winds" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 How do you think our area will do with this? will stay well north of most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Individual cells are popping ahead of the main line,. They are igniting due to the incredible instability over the area..it's only going to get worse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 19Z Surface Obs., streamlines, SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Individual cells are popping ahead of the main line,. They are igniting due to the incredible instability over the area..it's only going to get worse.. Yeah, SBCAPE and MUCAPE are both at near 5000 Kg/J. Something is bound to happen with so much potential energy in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The SRV at lowest tilt out of OKX is jaw-dropping across the Berkshires and Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion 1156< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA...UPSTATE NEW YORK...VT...NH...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450... VALID 091918Z - 092045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450 CONTINUES. A STRONG/SEVERE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND ORGANIZE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT OF NEW YORK...AND ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CATSKILLS SHORTLY...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING ACROSS AREAS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ONE EXCEPTION COULD EXIST NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY LINGERS. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW IS STRENGTHENING IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR CONVECTIVELY GENERATED DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Hatched hail is a rarity and I'm not sure if I can recall an instance in the past where we were in one. But I am sure it is more recent than I can remember. You've had enough hail there in Monmouth county for one year. lol yeah half dollar to golf ball hail is enough for a lifetime down this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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