JonClaw Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 After SPC's last bust... I am not sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 another watch box out, but that one is west of us.. i guess a bit later. Yea I would imagine in a few hours we shall get one, our threat is later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 After SPC's last bust... I am not sold. Which bust was that? How are you grading their probabilistic forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 After SPC's last bust... I am not sold. That was no bust, New England saw one of its worst tornado outbreaks in history. How many times do we have to say "discrete cells that rotate, while destroying one community, produce not a sprinkle in the town down the road"...NYC was the "town down the road" that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 That was no bust, New England saw one of its worst tornado outbreaks in history. How many times do we have to say "discrete cells that rotate, while destroying one community, produce not a sprinkle in the town down the road"...NYC was the "town down the road" that day that is one loooooooong road, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe T Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 It will be dark when NJ and NYC sees strong thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Which bust was that? How are you grading their probabilistic forecasts? I think it was last week when the metro area was put under a tornado watch (I know Upton is in charge of that). Not enough shear then, not enough now/yet (for NYC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 That was no bust, New England saw one of its worst tornado outbreaks in history. How many times do we have to say "discrete cells that rotate, while destroying one community, produce not a sprinkle in the town down the road"...NYC was the "town down the road" that day Bust for the NYC metro. No doubt that Upstate NY and probably CT will get rocked today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR...FROM WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE INTO THE BOSTON AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 091745Z - 091915Z MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR IS BEING MONITORED FOR A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE...WHICH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19-20Z. STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AIDED BY MODEST DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW /20-30 KT/...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD INTO A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. A CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY IMPACT THE GREAT NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS BY 21-22Z...THE BOSTON AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND PERHAPS PHILADELPHIA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON D.C. AREA TOWARD 23-00Z. ..KERR.. 06/09/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR...FROM WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE INTO THE BOSTON AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 091745Z - 091915Z MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR IS BEING MONITORED FOR A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE...WHICH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19-20Z. STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AIDED BY MODEST DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW /20-30 KT/...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD INTO A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. A CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY IMPACT THE GREAT NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS BY 21-22Z...THE BOSTON AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND PERHAPS PHILADELPHIA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON D.C. AREA TOWARD 23-00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The atmosphere is going to go bananas just hope the forcing can sustain these storms as they advance south and east later. Much better parameters I'n place this go around for NYC metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks like every storm that is out there right now has a warning with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks like every storm that is out there right now has a warning with it. Yea man these dynamics are ridiculous, these storms are going to be serious severe weather producers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Discrete cell just popped way out ahead of the line over Sullivan county. I wonder if we will see more of this, should be an enhanced supercell threat with any discrete cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I think it was last week when the metro area was put under a tornado watch (I know Upton is in charge of that). Not enough shear then, not enough now/yet (for NYC). So your statement was an anecdote. Since the probabilities weren't 0% or 100%, this wasn't a deterministic forecast. Therefore, saying the SPC busted is an entirely ignorant statement, so I suggest you take a look at that link about probabilistic forecasts and what they mean. There is also plenty of information on the SPC site, too. Don't forget that not too far away from NYC, there were supercells producing hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Yea man these dynamics are ridiculous, these storms are going to be serious severe weather producers! they scary thing is that they have yet to enter the area with the highest instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 http://www.americanw...253#entry499253 So your statement was an anecdote. Since the probabilities weren't 0% or 100%, this wasn't a deterministic forecast. Therefore, saying the SPC busted is an entirely ignorant statement, so I suggest you take a look at that link about probabilistic forecasts and what they mean. There is also plenty of information on the SPC site, too. Don't forget that not too far away from NYC, there were supercells producing hail. he has no clue what he is talking about first off since he thinks that individual offices are responsible for watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 they scary thing is that they have yet to enter the area with the highest instability Yea man, that is exactly what I was thinking. Might be a busy night fire call wise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Just an hour ago all was quiet now storms are exploding over NY state and extreme North Central PA. Its going to be a day of extreme severe weather that's for sure. No marine layer to weaken these storms this go around. Will be interesting to see what happens later for our area. incredible instability parameters are In place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 he has no clue what he is talking about first off since he thinks that individual offices are responsible for watches SPC issues the watches. Individual offices coordinate the watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 10 severe hail reports already out of NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 another discrete cell is trying to form over eastern Sussex county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The best storms won't get here until the nose of the more favorable shear moves south. All guidance has this occurring around 22-00z when 30+ kts of effective and 0-6km bulk shear move southeast. Barring any outflow boundaries or some convective mesoscale process there is almost no way we can get screwed out of this set up. Models have an incredible elevated instability axis through late tonight and the convection will develop southeast towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The best storms won't get here until the nose of the more favorable shear moves south. All guidance has this occurring around 22-00z when 30+ kts of effective and 0-6km bulk shear move southeast. Barring any outflow boundaries or some convective mesoscale process there is almost no way we can get screwed out of this set up. Models have an incredible elevated instability axis through late tonight and the convection will develop southeast towards it. Jinxed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Jinxed it. Just being honest. Obviously individual locations may not get storms. That's the way convection works. But on a regional scale this is going to be a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Thank you for the informative criticism of my statement, HM. So, instead of the SPC busting, NYC was just in a screw zone that day, I guess. YanksFan, I have a signature for a reason. No reason to be callous about what I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Thank you for the informative criticism of my statement, HM. So, instead of the SPC busting, NYC was just in a screw zone that day, I guess. YanksFan, I have a signature for a reason. No reason to be callous about what I say. Hey no problem. Believe it or not, there are many mets, too, who don't understand this either. Good luck this evening with the severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Just being honest. Obviously individual locations may not get storms. That's the way convection works. But on a regional scale this is going to be a big event. shear, height falls, and strong forcing are lacking. We need a squall line to develop a good cold pool to sustain the updrafts or this event will look a lot like last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 shear, height falls, and strong forcing are lacking. We need a squall line to develop a good cold pool to sustain the updrafts or this event will look a lot like last week. The effective shear and height falls improve dramatically by this evening...which is why I'd think the storms have a good chance of staying organized on the periphery of the strongest shear this evening,.especially given the degree of thermodynamic support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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