IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 shear values seem quite a bit higher than what we got with the tornado watch fail. Seeing as the storm mode will likely be in the form of line segments and bowing structures it should be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Much better chance with today then last week. While the conditions looked great last week, not one model had any precip making it in our area. We were going with pure data and not modeling last week, and over the years, I've learned to never go against modeling that is in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Much better chance with today then last week. While the conditions looked great last week, not one model had any precip making it in our area. We were going with pure data and not modeling last week, and over the years, I've learned to never go against modeling that is in agreement. HRRR on its own does not inspire conficence. Everything else really shows this stuff to the north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 HRRR on its own does not inspire conficence. Everything else really shows this stuff to the north of the city. GFS and NAM both bring some precip to our area. While only a little, it still shows that rain is possible. Last week, not one model had any precip at all for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 GFS and NAM both bring some precip to our area. While only a little, it still shows that rain is possible. Last week, not one model had any precip at all for us. yeah, little bit of precip, but nothing like the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 HRRR on its own does not inspire conficence. Everything else really shows this stuff to the north of the city. while the best shear profiles should remain to our north today, there should be sufficent shear in our area. SPC put out a MCS discussion earlier which highlighted what will be the trigger down this way. SBCAPE values are already in excess of 4000 J/KG over western areas so there will be no lack of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 yeah, little bit of precip, but nothing like the HRRR 12z data is old. Its from 4 hours ago. HRRR might be picking up on improving atmospheric conditions. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 new watch was issued well north and west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 12z data is old. Its from 4 hours ago. HRRR might be picking up on improving atmospheric conditions. We shall see. The atmoshere is fine, its the trigger. Not sure what its seeing to produce that kind of line with all the best stuff so north of here and really very few left over boundaries to work with. Again, his is nyc metro s and w. Into CT and beyond, different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 The atmoshere is fine, its the trigger. Not sure what its seeing to produce that kind of line with all the best stuff so north of here and really very few left over boundaries to work with. Again, his is nyc metro s and w. Into CT and beyond, different story. THIS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UPSTATE/WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...WESTERN THRU NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 091436Z - 091600Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. INHIBITION FOR THE POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...BEGINS TO SPREAD TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER SUPPORT...COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG INLAND ADVANCING LAKE BREEZES AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY...ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO... INCREASING THROUGH THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST /25-35 KT/...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. EVENTUALLY...CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH MAY ENSUE...LEADING TO BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SPREADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 new watch was issued well north and west of us 95% DAMAGAING WINDS AND 90% SEVERE HAIL PROBS ON THAT WATCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 THIS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UPSTATE/WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...WESTERN THRU NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID THROUGH THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST /25-35 KT/...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. EVENTUALLY...CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH MAY ENSUE...LEADING TO BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SPREADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. To me that doesnt read as getting below the CT shoreline, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 To me that doesnt read as getting below the CT shoreline, but we will see. CT is not in the mid-atlantic, its in New England and they even hatched the area on the graphic. As you can see, it includes our entire area and more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks like NYC is in the mod risk now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Oh wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 723 ACUS01 KWNS 091631 SWODY1 SPC AC 091629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN WY AND VICINITY ..SYNOPSIS SUPPRESSION OF THE S CENTRAL AND SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...AS THE WRN U.S. TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND AT THE SAME TIME AN ERN CANADA TROUGH MOVES EWD -- FORCING FALLING HEIGHTS/CYCLONIC FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY/PA. THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT WILL LINGER WWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL RETREAT NWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE MO VALLEY REGION WITH FRONTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING PIECES OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH. ..NEW ENGLAND WSWWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD/DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS RISK AREA HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE-COOLED AIR OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RECOVERING. AS A LARGE PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP A VERY MOIST /NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINES WITH CLEARING SKIES SUPPORTING STRONG WARM SECTOR HEATING...MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY -- AND THE COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY -- WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SHIFTING SEWD WITH TIME ACROSS NY/PA/OH AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WLYS PROGGED TO REMAIN N OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE...MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM SWRN PA ENEWD ACROSS SRN AND ERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. HERE...VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH INITIAL SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING LINES WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY EARLY ON WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS. BY THIS EVENING...CONVECTION WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL SEWD...FROM SRN AND ERN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO NRN VA/WV. WITH WEAKER FLOW S OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE...MORE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks like NYC is in the mod risk now? yes thats correct, just about our entire region is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 looks like NYC is in the mod risk now? Yup. There it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 I thought they would go hatched on the wind threat but they actually went hatched on the hail threat, been a long time since I've seen this for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Change title to NYC in the moderate category now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Change title to NYC in the moderate category now. how do I change it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I thought they would got hatched on the wind threat but they actually went hatched on the hail threat, been a long time since I've seen this for us We are in the 45% wind also. Yeah baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 how do I change it? Hit edit on your 1st post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I'm worried now... I hope we don't run into the overhype, underperform situation again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Hit edit on your 1st post. tried that didnt work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I'm worried now... I hope we don't run into the overhype, underperform situation again. I'm still looking for what changed other than the HRRR going batty. Find me the trigger and I will join the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 yeah baby, SBCAPE in excess of 5000 J/KG now Im actually getting concerned about a big derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I'm worried now... I hope we don't run into the overhype, underperform situation again. Yea its not like alot of the models are bringing severe weather to the nyc metro area besides the hrrr, this might just be the case of the nws being safe with what's on the table today as far as potential severe weather with the best chance further to our north, I think so anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 John, thoughts on triggers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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