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June 2011 general discussion/obs thread


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It would appear that it might be, at least if the RUC 3 hour forecast is accurate...at 21z it has 850 mb temps near 22C which is a hair warmer than what the models were showing for today.

Ok, NOW I think we're about done. I'll be shocked if our high is anything except 96 or 97.

I just checked my Davis Weather Station before I read this post and it showed 96 also. I thought there was something wrong with it at first, but it's probably correct.

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I just checked my Davis Weather Station before I read this post and it showed 96 also. I thought there was something wrong with it at first, but it's probably correct.

I'll give my local met a half point...it's not 100 in May but 96 on June 4 is pretty warm. Dewpoint also continues to drop.

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I'm not sure how we will pull it off without some 1936 type hot spells. I guess the other way would be mid to upper 90's every day but how likely is that.

Not very likely. I mean 1936 was wicked and almost unbelievable really. I can't imagine 19 days with temps AOA 100. But hey Chad is an "expert". :rolleyes:

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Crazy weather though... Youngstown and Ashtabula had a low of 39 yesterday morning, just a couple days after it was in the upper 80s to low 90s for a few days across that area. And today its up to 97 in parts of the Toledo area, with temps rapidly climbing through the 80s and low to mid 90s statewide. Very 1988-ish. Not behaving like you would expect it would with saturated grounds, although tbh it doesn't look all that wet to me for the beginning of June out there.

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Both 1936 and 1921 are two summers I wonder got recorded right. Unbelieavable Max/Min torching going on those 2 summers, not seen before or since. Both 1988 or 2010 doesn't hold a candle to either on both side of the lever.

Yeah, it was definitely very hot back then, but I'd be careful about some of the old co-ops records. There wasn't a whole lot of oversight of the program by the Weather Bureau back then. So some of the very extreme records probably wouldn't stand today, like when you see a state record of 111 but the high temp that day at the nearest weather bureau station downtown in a big city on the roof of a tall building was 104 -- something is up. LOL. I think it was NWS Duluth that had a page on their old records that had been threaded into their climate history and they discussed where they were taken -- for a while one of the places was taking them from a cotton-region shield only like 2 feet above the ground for a while. Obviously that's going to read too high during the day and too low at night.

But that's not take anything away from the July 1936 heat wave, which I admit is still the longest and most intense in midwest history. No doubt it was in the 100 degree range for about a weak with overnight lows staying in the mid 70s. Pretty brutal for sure. 1988 did have some intense bouts of heat though and some of the places with more reliable records approached or even surpassed the 1936 figures, but in duration it didn't hold a candle.

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i guess we can put the heavy rainfall stuff in this thread..

but training heavy rains possible over N IL..the ground is till saoked from last weekends event in places..rivers high

I'm not sure if the models are picking up on this(haven't looked) but there appears to be a weak disturbance over SW IA/NW MO...you can almost make out a "warmfront" over IA and a "cold front" over Nw MO from this with the east-west warmfront lighting up now

HPC way too low with QPF

ENDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION

GUIDANCE HERE FOR AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS WHILE CONTINUING TO

ACKNOWLEDGE THAT ISOLD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES

MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT THRU THE MIDWEST. FOR NOW HAVE GONE

MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH AREA AVG AMOUNTS WITH .25 TO 50 INCH

AMOUNTS ACRS SRN IA INTO NRN IL..WITH BROAD .25 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS

FARTHER E THRU ERN OH INTO WRN PA/WV AND WILL REEVALUATE THIS AREA

FOR FINAL ISSUANCE BASED ON LATER MODEL GUID

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Both 1936 and 1921 are two summers I wonder got recorded right. Unbelieavable Max/Min torching going on those 2 summers, not seen before or since. Both 1988 or 2010 doesn't hold a candle to either on both side of the lever.

The entire 1930s was full of blistering and dry summers. The summer of 1936 was extremely torrid and occurred right in the middle of the Dust Bowl.. I find it interesting that it was preceded by one of the coldest winters ever.

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Monday and Tuesday are looking pretty hot per latest NAM. Mid to upper 90s over northern Illinois Tuesday afternoon. The Plains will really be baking with widespread 100s. Even some 105+ areas showing up.

Today was our 5th 90 degree day of the season, with many more on the way this week.

NAM_221_2011060418_F75_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

I can believe it. Today was a lot hotter than expected for many places with some mid to upper 90s all the way into northwest Ohio (94 at Defiance and Toledo Express, 95 at Findlay, Lorain, and Lima, 96 at Fort Wayne, IN, and 97 at Toledo Metcalf). It should at least reach about these levels again sometime next week in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe (most likely Wednesday, but perhaps Thursday if the front hangs up a little more than expected).

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