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NC/VA Sunday Snow Threat

MillzPirate

By MillzPirate,
in Southeastern States

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

12z NAM still showing about the same amounts in the same spots; northern NC through central coastal plain. Notice that the 24 hour plot still has some light precip over eastern NC (after > .25 liquid eqi has fallen).

yeah, this model has been consistent in relative placement and amounts in the strip of quarter inch amounts for the past 24 hours. Close to, or just over a half inch liquid on this run here, which I am not biting at. If it is right, so be it and I will eat my words and like it, but just don't see that happening given the setup. Quarter inch seems a more reasonable amount, but that is still almost double what the GFS over the past couple runs has been showing, so one of them will be wrong.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Overnight from MHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

323 AM EST SAT DEC 4 2010

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR THE FIRST

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW THIS WINTER SEASON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA

TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AS MID LEVELS MOISTEN AHEAD

OF THE COMPACT SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST.

ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW TRACKS ESE NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER DURING THE

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASING ONSHORE LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE FEED LEADS TO INCREASING PCPN CHCS DURING THE

EVENING HOURS. PTYPE AND QPF ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TO

DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL AND WHETHER IT WILL FALL HEAVILY

ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY

LIMITS QPF AMOUNTS BUT A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE IN A

SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT THIS EVE. THIS CUD LEAD TO A

SMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES TO BEGIN WITH

THEN TO UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR

MAINLY SNOW AS THE MAIN PTYPE IN NWRN AREAS (AFTER POSSIBLY

STARTING OUT BRIEFLY AS RAIN) WITH MAINLY RAIN FAVORED INITIALLY

TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER PCPN MAY COME TO AN END AS A PERIOD

OF SNOW EVEN OVER FAR SE AREAS AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS DROP DURING THE

VERY EARLY MORN HOURS SUNDAY.

CURRENT SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE BETTER

THAN 70% FOR AREAS ROUGHLY FROM KINSTON TO GREENVILLE TO

WILLIAMSTON EAST TO WASHINGTON AND PLYMOUTH SO THESE WOULD BE THE

MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION. SMALLER

ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS BUT SHUD

BE VERY LIMITED ACCUM IF AT ALL ALONG COASTAL AREAS. AFTER COORD

WITH RAH/AKQ WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OF ON A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD AN ADVISORY

MAY BE NEED TO BE ISSUED EITHER DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

333 AM EST SAT DEC 4 2010

NCZ029-044-045-079-080-091-093-050845-

MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-GREENE-BEAUFORT-LENOIR-CRAVEN-

333 AM EST SAT DEC 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY...AND

THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST

ALONG OR NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES

MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND

A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY

SURFACES AT FIRST THEN ON ANY UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

OVERNIGHT.

Overnight from RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

744 AM EST SAT DEC 04 2010

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN

APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS SYSTEM

HAS BEEN PRODUCING WARNING AND/OR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS

UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS IT HEADS FOR CENTRAL NC. IN

ADDITION TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS

PROGGED TO TRACK JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...PUTTING THE NORTHERN

HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW PIEDMONT REGION...IN A

VERY GOOD POSITION FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IN FACT

PREDOMINANT P-TYPE NOMOGRAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW ALL SNOW ACROSS THE

NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE WITH

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENTS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH

CONTINUES TO BE IN QUESTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A

RELATIVELY DRY UPPER PORTION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH

ONLY THE LOWER LIMITS (-10C TO -12C) OF THE ICE NUCLEI ZONE BECOMING

SATURATED. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING

RATHER LOW QPF AMOUNTS (ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE THEN A TENTH OF AN INCH).

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE THE PRECIP WILL START OUT AS A

RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AND

QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE

FORECAST AREA. AM EXPECTING THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE TO BE RAIN IN THE

SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A

BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE END OF THE EVENT.

DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN

HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE LOW QPF

AMOUNTS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AND THE FACT THE SOIL TEMPS ARE

STILL RATHER WARM (GENERALLY IN THE 40-50 DEGREE RANGE). ALL PRECIP

IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND 03Z-06Z

ACROSS THE TRIAD. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS...THICKENING CLOUD COVER IS

EXPECTED TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE

NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE

EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT DUE

TO ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND THEN FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING BRIEFLY

NEAR SUNRISE AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH OFFSHORE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

523 AM EST SAT DEC 4 2010

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-051030-

PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-

ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-

JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-

RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-

523 AM EST SAT DEC 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL

TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY

TODAY AND THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION

IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS THE LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH

TO SUPPORT SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON

AND INTO TONIGHT...PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. SOME

UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION

AMOUNTS...BUT AT THIS TIME ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE

EXPECTED...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE

UNCERTAINTY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IF

HIGHER THEN EXPECTED AMOUNTS BEGIN TO OCCUR.

Both offices in wait and see mode

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

not that this is the gospel, but it will be interesting to see if something close to this verifies:

CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_24HR.gif

Looks good to me general 2-3 in for my area and would put me at almost 50-75% of my annual snowfall lol. I can remember a few of these that overproduce but I as of now I am expecting a dusting at best. Went and hunted this am till 9ish and well it was chilly and the air has that "feel" to it and like Eyewall said the air smells like snow. This storm is gonna happen I think.........:drunk:

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

Not trying to stir up any excitement but FFC is calling for rn/sn mix tonight from a Calhoun-Cumming-Commerce line north. The station at 3200' on Brasstown Bald is reporting 36 with a DP of 21 right now, so I'm sure if they can get some precip going things could get interesting at the peak (~4700'). Rosie, NEGa and you folks in far N GA keep us updated tonight.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Overnight from RAH

Both offices in wait and see mode

HOWEVER...DUE TO THE

UNCERTAINTY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IF

HIGHER THEN EXPECTED AMOUNTS BEGIN TO OCCUR.

Got to love Raleigh in snow situations. This basically says, when the ground is covered we might put out an advisory.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1205 PM SATURDAY...

BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS... CURRENT TRENDS... AND THE LATEST

MODEL GUIDANCE... HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

FOR SNOW FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 (OR HIGHWAY 42).

EXPECT A DUSTING TO NEAR AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES ONLY. DETAILS

SHORTLY.

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1205 PM SATURDAY...

BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS... CURRENT TRENDS... AND THE LATEST

MODEL GUIDANCE... HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

FOR SNOW FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 (OR HIGHWAY 42).

EXPECT A DUSTING TO NEAR AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES ONLY. DETAILS

SHORTLY.

Yehaw! Thanks Solak!

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