Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 True that...lol. I know the GFS obviously can be too progressive as well. I guess we'll see what the euro does. 12z Euro is interesting with this idea... It brings the initial Sonoran pulse primarily through the lower OV and TV regions, then tries to lift the airmass up the coast nearing D8 and 9... D10 shows a much bigger pulse about to be released - It is more likely than not that these varying model solutions will continue for the next few days - all and all the notion is still in tact, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 June 2008 had a torrid heat wave here.....Central Park was 94/61 on the 7th, 93/74 on the 8th, 96/76 on the 9th, and 96/69 on the 10th...the muggies came back at the end of the month, as well. I was away working on an organic farm in Costa Rica, but my parents told me that some of the schools in Westchester had early dismissals for extreme heat...my HS doesn't have any air conditioning, and I think they allowed the students to leave a couple of days in the afternoon after there were complaints of temperatures above 100F in the building. Ironically, it was only in the 50s/60s in Costa Rica where I was. 2008 was a good summer for severe weather since we had some troughing in the Upper Midwest with cold pool set-ups here. It cooled down significantly after June, but we still had lots of thunderstorms and hail into July. We're currently seeing the MJO burst/+AAM spike, but this should fade in the longer term as the easterly trade winds return to the ENSO regions. I would imagine that this might mean we see a return of the SE ridge after a brief +PNA/-NAO that you mention. I have a feeling the drought in the Southern Plains could also be a contributing factor to the heat building north as it did during the famous Summer 1980. That was a Sonoran Heat Release event. I actually covered that in a thread around 20th or 25th of May that year, that the teleoconnectors were flagging that potential and it worked out ...better than even I had hoped. We made 99F at ASH up here in that wave. The rest of the summer turn out thunderstormy with severe almost daily from later that month through the middle or end of July - cool pool stagnated in the OV and sent pockets of -14C between 700mb and 500mb in the means across 45 days. Lots of boomers. Saw nickle hail in that twice that summer. Anyway, I mentioned that heat wave earlier in this thread I believe. I wish I could find antiquated threads ...it was at Eastern, which no longer exists unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 That was a Sonoran Heat Release event. I actually covered that in a thread around 20th or 25th of May that year, that the teleoconnectors were flagging that potential and it worked out ...better than even I had hoped. We made 99F at ASH up here in that wave. The rest of the summer turn out thunderstormy with severe almost daily from later that month through the middle or end of July - cool pool stagnated in the OV and sent pockets of -14C between 700mb and 500mb in the means across 45 days. Lots of boomers. Saw nickle hail in that twice that summer. Anyway, I mentioned that heat wave earlier in this thread I believe. I wish I could find antiquated threads ...it was at Eastern, which no longer exists unfortunately. Eastern still exists... Will posted some of the Ice Storm 2008 threads yesterday. Not sure how to effectively use the search feature though Maybe check around here? http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/15-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/page__prune_day__100__sort_by__Z-A__sort_key__last_post__topicfilter__all__st__11040 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 After the huge -NAO the models had for May collapsed miserably, it seems very unlikely we'd see one in June We have blocking right now, just not in the classic NAO zone. Also, I just said to keep an eye on it...doesn't mean we will see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Thanks for the post, Tip. On the heels of all this rain, that "Gorgeous Sonoran Heat Release" might be more aptly names as the "Horrific Biting Insect Release". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I found this on eastern .... We could compare the two on how they play out... Tip again was the poster lol From Tip.. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/202330-sonoran-heat-release/ I've been eying this for a few days and it seems to be gaining ensemble support, as well as some tentative operational agreement between the ECMWF and GFS. A few others may have mentioned this dappled about the various threads, but I am unsure. To use as an example (a bit less for determinism), the 12z GFS shows a classic Sonoran Heat event and subsequent translation across the U.S. in the D6-10 time frame. How this typically works is that a nearer and middle range ridge amplification in the 35N/~115W region causes impressive plateau type heating, and then a subsequent Rosby roll out sends the ridge packing. Downstream it comes and the conveyor on the W/NW/N periphery of the deep layer anticyclone rips this plateau dragon breath right over the plains. Turbulent mixing in a decent gradient homogenizes the SFC to ~850mb level, such that diurnal heating gets oppressive/impressive. SHR1.jpg (162.54K) Number of downloads: 7 Wait for it....wait for it... BOOM - here it comes! SHR2.jpg (215.43K) Number of downloads: 16 SHR3.jpg (90.21K) Number of downloads: 4 Again, this product usage is purely to exemplify the process of a Sonoran heat event and how one unfolds. The 00z operational ECM has it's own variation on this theme, having somewhat less NE CONUS penetration of positive height anomalies. While a feel the interval in question does gain overall confidence for the heat event, I see the actual evolution of major features to be some perturbed variation on the rather classic appeal of the GFS - or not, perhaps it does all come together that way. In either fashion, this would not likely be the 87-91F variety discomfort should it all work out, but something more akin to 90-100 by day, and 70-80(urban) by night. Something we certainly have not suffered yet this summer. It is true that the 850mb dailies are bit retarded behind this 500mb evolutions but I've seen this many many times in the past and if the 500mb verifies, the 850mb level gets corrected. A run-up analog for this might actually be the June heat wave event in 2008. Places from the GL-upper OV and New England and upper MA may also have to contend with MCS type activity in the nocturnal times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 Eastern still exists... Will posted some of the Ice Storm 2008 threads yesterday. Not sure how to effectively use the search feature though Maybe check around here? http://www.easternus..._all__st__11040 I found it... It was called "Seedlings of a Heatwave", page 264 back or so... Same basic gyst though if memory serves that signal might have been a little brighter than this go - who knows. The one SnowNH refers to was a year a 2 months later... These are interesting events to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Time to throw caution to the wind and balls against walls on board for heat Haha, yeah you've always been someone to take the conservative, middle-of-the-road approach to weather and forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I found it... It was called "Seedlings of a Heatwave", page 264 back or so... Same basic gyst though if memory serves that signal might have been a little brighter than this go - who knows. The one SnowNH refers to was a year a 2 months later... These are interesting events to track. Good find. At least it is something to watch/learn from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 00z EC is toasty again next week. No matter how you slice it, it will at least be a lot better than this hellish week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 00z EC is toasty again next week. No matter how you slice it, it will at least be a lot better than this hellish week. Yup..there doesn't seem to be much doubt now..even for Scooter..80's and maybe some 90 degree weather next week with high dews. Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Yup..there doesn't seem to be much doubt now..even for Scooter..80'2 and maybe some 90 degree weather next week with high dews. Summer Might be sea-breeze for me from time to time, but it does look warm. Black flies building nests in Pete's hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Might be sea-breeze for me from time to time, but it does look warm. Black flies building nests in Pete's hair. Obviously a city boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Might be sea-breeze for me from time to time, but it does look warm. Black flies building nests in Pete's hair. Yup..He's done. His fetish for cold weather in spring and summer is over..Burn baby burn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Yup..He's done. His fetish for cold weather in spring and summer is over..Burn baby burn Sure, a few days in the 70's, big whoop. You've been crying Torch for weeks and all we have to show for it is a prolonged period of cool drizzly weather. BTW, my lawn looks fab.... without any chemical bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 INTERGALACTICPLANETARYMEGATORCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Sure, a few days in the 70's, big whoop. You've been crying Torch for weeks and all we have to show for it is a prolonged period of cool drizzly weather. BTW, my lawn looks fab.... without any chemical bath. You'll have days of 80's Let's see some pics of the lawn. Dark green with no weeds is what we're expecting to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 It is still possible we may have more se type flow after Wednesday as a frontal boundary may sag to our south. If that's the case, it will be mild, but not like it could be if we had a sw wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Severe for wiz?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Heat on this week, A/C on next week...the year of extremes continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Severe for wiz?? 3-6 TOR's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 3-6 TOR's? Might have a chance of a couple of elevated clusters of tstms coming out of NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Going forward, the overall pattern does look warm with a -PNA and + NAO. Ridging in the Great Lakes will likely aid in the warmth, but obviously details TBD. Back door front are still likely to occur for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2011 Author Share Posted May 18, 2011 Going forward, the overall pattern does look warm with a -PNA and + NAO. Ridging in the Great Lakes will likely aid in the warmth, but obviously details TBD. Back door front are still likely to occur for some. Yes ... but, as far as this thread goes, though I agree the appeal is warmer for next week, the Sonoran release was abandoned in all honesty, by the Euro. The GFS was never really on board, but is struggling in its own right to raise SE heights and establish a -PNAP. That all said, whenever we see a concerted descent among the members wrt to the PNA, with neutral-positive NAO, the potential is in there. The specific detail in how the Euro dropped the plume evacuation out of the Sonoran region, could very well be chalked up to having seen that plausibility in a D7-D10 time frame (yesterday), and therein left it prone to permutation. In other words, eh, D9 outlooks rarely come along with much consistency. We'll shall see if that release comes back in future runs - there is time for that in an overall descending PNA regime. Without the release, as others have noted, we have a much much warmer synoptic layout, with a clear warm sector penetration through the area for middle week, next week... And, with the general -PNA and building heights in the SE, folks should DEFINITELY suspect that any cfropa may end up muted - that whole thing next week smacks as frontalysis, where a cfront comes charging through Detroit, only to come limping through Albany as a decaying dry line because the boundary parallels the flow along he NW periphery of the season's first subtropical ridge expression. It's the first of the season; the models will most likely err on the side of too much penetration. ...something my GF has never had an issue with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Yes ... but, as far as this thread goes, though I agree the appeal is warmer for next week, the Sonoran release was abandoned in all honesty, by the Euro. The GFS was never really on board, but is struggling in its own right to raise SE heights and establish a -PNAP. That all said, whenever we see a concerted descent among the members wrt to the PNA, with neutral-positive NAO, the potential is in there. The specific detail in how the Euro dropped the plume evacuation out of the Sonoran region, could very well be chalked up to having seen that plausibility in a D7-D10 time frame (yesterday), and therein left it prone to permutation. In other words, eh, D9 outlooks rarely come along with much consistency. We'll shall see if that release comes back in future runs - there is time for that in an overall descending PNA regime. Without the release, as others have noted, we have a much much warmer synoptic layout, with a clear warm sector penetration through the area for middle week, next week... And, with the general -PNA and building heights in the SE, folks should DEFINITELY suspect that any cfropa may end up muted - that whole thing next week smacks as frontalysis, where a cfront comes charging through Detroit, only to come limping through Albany as a decaying dry line because the boundary parallels the flow along he NW periphery of the season's first subtropical ridge expression. It's the first of the season; the models will most likely err on the side of too much penetration. ...something my GF has never had an issue with... LOL. To me, it looks like that Sonoran plume might be shoved a little to the south..places like the lower OV and across the areas like VA and NC. Again, just based on what last night models showed. In other words, maybe troughing wasn't strong enough on the models to really suck this plume up and drag it into SNE. At first glance, a plume of very warm air does make it in here by mid week. It could easily come back full force on the 12z runs. The only thing that could be the Sonoran spoiler is that weak fropa that comes through Tuesday. It might serve to push some onshore flow into the area during mid week, followed up by return flow again from the south. However, 570 thickness seabreezes are not exactly chilly..lol, so long as they aren't accompanied by fog at the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2011 Author Share Posted May 18, 2011 LOL. To me, it looks like that Sonoran plume might be shoved a little to the south..places like the lower OV and across the areas like VA and NC. Again, just based on what last night models showed. In other words, maybe troughing wasn't strong enough on the models to really suck this plume up and drag it into SNE. At first glance, a plume of very warm air does make it in here by mid week. It could easily come back full force on the 12z runs. The only thing that could be the Sonoran spoiler is that weak fropa that comes through Tuesday. It might serve to push some onshore flow into the area during mid week, followed up by return flow again from the south. However, 570 thickness seabreezes are not exactly chilly..lol, so long as they aren't accompanied by fog at the beaches. One thing is for certain, lots of detail headaches in the grids for next week, ranging from bustable highs to nagging BD like you mention. I agree also, upon closer inspection there is still at least a partial eject out of the SW but it is shunting... easily correctable, or not, in future runs. Again, the teleocon spread still is supportive - the question is whether synoptic evolution/details avails or not. Either way, Euro suggest 85F for highs by Wed without the Sonoran assist. That's a nice warm sector there - again, perhaps prematurely advected away by over-zealous frontal placement into the ridge being significantly likely. Another thing, if an interim boundary sags down we could pop a nice MCS up in southern Ontario along the overrunning wedge, that would send frequent lighting down our way - whenever you take 80/60 type heat and lift it over a shallow boundary where there is an existing geostrophic flow rounding the top of a burgeoning ridge, that's like MCS checklist heaven. But that's if if if.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Yes ... but, as far as this thread goes, though I agree the appeal is warmer for next week, the Sonoran release was abandoned in all honesty, by the Euro. The GFS was never really on board, but is struggling in its own right to raise SE heights and establish a -PNAP. That all said, whenever we see a concerted descent among the members wrt to the PNA, with neutral-positive NAO, the potential is in there. The specific detail in how the Euro dropped the plume evacuation out of the Sonoran region, could very well be chalked up to having seen that plausibility in a D7-D10 time frame (yesterday), and therein left it prone to permutation. In other words, eh, D9 outlooks rarely come along with much consistency. We'll shall see if that release comes back in future runs - there is time for that in an overall descending PNA regime. Without the release, as others have noted, we have a much much warmer synoptic layout, with a clear warm sector penetration through the area for middle week, next week... And, with the general -PNA and building heights in the SE, folks should DEFINITELY suspect that any cfropa may end up muted - that whole thing next week smacks as frontalysis, where a cfront comes charging through Detroit, only to come limping through Albany as a decaying dry line because the boundary parallels the flow along he NW periphery of the season's first subtropical ridge expression. It's the first of the season; the models will most likely err on the side of too much penetration. ...something my GF has never had an issue with... How long have you had a GF? I still remember vividly your Valentines Day massacre post when you took your life, posted you'd never have a GF..and caused a few others who were clinically depressed to end their lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 How long have you had a GF? I still remember vividly your Valentines Day massacre post when you took your life, posted you'd never have a GF..and caused a few others who were clinically depressed to end their lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 LOL..remember that post? I mean it was full of sheer terror and death. Congrats to Tip if he scored a GF..He must have sealed the deal pretty quickly in less than 3 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 LOL..remember that post? I mean it was full of sheer terror and death. Congrats to Tip if she scored a GF..He must have sealed the deal pretty quickly in less than 3 months LOL. the hallmark holiday debacle. i remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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