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Severe threat april 14, Tornado outbreak possible


janetjanet998

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The atmosphere over OK and TX is so unstable - look at the convective cloud forming over the fires in TX.

We had this in AZ several times during our summer thunderstorm season, it was extremely impressive.

Also notice the fires in MX, S of Big Bend.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

725 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

OKC005-029-150115-

/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110415T0115Z/

COAL OK-ATOKA OK-

725 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL

ATOKA AND SOUTHEASTERN COAL COUNTIES...

AT 723 PM CDT...A LARGE...VIOLENT TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST

OF TUSHKA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. PERSONS IN AND NEAR TUSHKA NEED

TO TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS AND

LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

725 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

OKC005-029-150115-

/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110415T0115Z/

COAL OK-ATOKA OK-

725 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL

ATOKA AND SOUTHEASTERN COAL COUNTIES...

AT 723 PM CDT...A LARGE...VIOLENT TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST

OF TUSHKA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. PERSONS IN AND NEAR TUSHKA NEED

TO TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS AND

LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!

Brandon is on it.

http://weather.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=13192&C=20643&O=10205

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0733 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 150033Z - 150230Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OVER ERN

OK...MOVING EWD AT 25 TO 35 KT...WILL CROSS THE OK/AR BORDER AFTER

02Z AND MARCH ACROSS AR DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EWD

INTO AR AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL OK OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE

AND THE MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EWD. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN

PLACE...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL OVERSPREAD AR INVOF

THE MOIST AXIS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR

MAGNITUDES AROUND 60 KT/ WILL SUSTAIN THE ONGOING SEVERE CONVECTION

INTO AR. WHILE THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE MODE IS SOMEWHAT

UNCERTAIN...HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST

UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AR.

THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE

TO THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A 100-125-KT 250-MB JET

STREAK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY

THESE STORMS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND MESOVORTICES WILL BE

ASSOCIATED WITH A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL

CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN HODOGRAPHS PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS

SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 300 AND

500 M2 PER S2. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A S-SWLY LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES

ESTABLISHED AFTER SUNSET. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED

WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS LEADING OR SOUTH OF THE QLCS. WHILE THE

THREAT FOR A STRONG TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN AR PRIOR TO 05Z

WITH MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION...THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOWARD A

MORE LINEAR SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE

NIGHT.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

737 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

OKC005-029-150115-

/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110415T0115Z/

COAL OK-ATOKA OK-

737 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL

ATOKA AND SOUTHEASTERN COAL COUNTIES...

AT 735 PM CDT...A LARGE...VIOLENT TORNADO THAT HAS PRODUCED DAMAGE

WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ATOKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PERSONS IN AND NEAR ATOKA NEED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO

PRECAUTIONS! THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!

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