Ji Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 EURO says the real deal is the the March 29-30 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Agreed. The NAO indices from the GFS and ECMWF ensemble suggest the Archambault transition from very -NAO to a much more modest -NAO will occur close to the potential Mar 30-31 storm. IMO that may be the one to watch. We saw this in December, when models were overdoing the first couple waves before the real deal. Usually the NAO transition storms are the legit threats and the others are either squashed or non issues. Should the pattern continue and the 50-50 low remains an entity much longer, then the real deal is probably not the 27-28th wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 We saw this in December, when models were overdoing the first couple waves before the real deal. Usually the NAO transition storms are the legit threats and the others are either squashed or non issues. Should the pattern continue and the 50-50 low remains an entity much longer, then the real deal is probably not the 27-28th wave. I mentioned something very similar in the SNE thread. Usually one or two of these has to be sacrificed for the big Daddy, but it doesn't mean you have to get zilch, as the Thursday storm offers chances into SNE. The EC ensembles are also on board for something around the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS coming in with a completely different solution - It's still a miss way to the south but the energy really dives down into the gulf coast region. Heights are just never really able to rise along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS coming in with a completely different solution - It's still a miss way to the south but the energy really dives down into the gulf coast region. Heights are just never really able to rise along the coast. Makes this huge jump from hr. 180 to hr. 192 - truncation? Anyway, threat remains in a decent position this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 That southern stream energy seems to stick around forever waiting for the northern stream to dive in, then by my amateur analysis we don't get a clean phase and the secondary system out ahead of the main low helps to prevent heights from rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Anyone have info on the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Anyone have info on the 12z Euro? Just initialized! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z euro has the saturday/sunday event well south of the area and ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro is barking at 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Signals are just amazing on the Euro. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z euro has the 2nd costal riding up the apps.....then pops a secondary around hse....preciep up to phl.....850's plenty cold...but surface temps mid 30's... hr 180 low pressure kissing norfolk......mod snow for dc/baltimore....big hit for there suburbs.. hr 186 light snow for the area...it gets captured a bit to late for us at hr 192.....very la la land here...but potential is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Has a sub 980 well east of the DelMarva at 198 with light snow over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 sub 972 now WAY east of the NJ coast. Light snow for SE New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hr 114 light snow has enter the area...low pressure in western KY...18z gfs hr 120 light snow contiues....but very light.....with no more then .10 in a 3 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 hr 129 light snow left over.....what is most impressive is on how below avg we will be after wed......lows will be in the 20's outside the citys... Next storm getting organized in tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 hr 129 light snow left over.....what is most impressive is on how below avg we will be after wed......lows will be in the 20's outside the citys... Next storm getting organized in tx both storms look pretty flat this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 both storms look pretty flat this run alot of potential with both...and the set-up is as good as you can get in late march.......2nd costal just does not have enough digging to get it up the coast......but still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The potential and pattern regime is just astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 alot of potential with both...and the set-up is as good as you can get in late march.......2nd costal just does not have enough digging to get it up the coast......but still plenty of time. agreed, probably the gfs just shearing out the shortwave again, the storm after sunday just needs to dig and amplify more because its not cutting, similar to the dec storm. That is probably the finale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 One more for the road, boys? GFS develops a serious AK block in the long-range with a favorable 50/50 low and confluence. Sort of a crazy cold pattern for early April but whatever...I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Did you just post a 300+ hr map? Where the **** are those weenie tags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The H500 pattern is pretty impressive the April mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The H500 pattern is pretty impressive the April mean. ensembles are showing the NAO going back positive (thank God) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 ensembles are showing the NAO going back positive (thank God) We aren't leaving the pattern before one more monster nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We aren't leaving the pattern before one more monster nor'easter. I can't wait for 40 F with 35-50mph winds and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I can't wait for 40 F with 35-50mph winds and rain. Is your keyboard on a repeat button? Or you just copy and paste ur previous post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 00z gfs so far looks pretty flat for the sunday event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 There is a spring thread that you started, pazzo. You spamming these threads is worse than someone posting a 300hr GFS map for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 00z gfs so far looks pretty flat for the sunday event.... I don't think that wave stands a chance...very similar to last December. The big potential comes in about a week from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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