Stebo Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 It's not like you guys aren't gonna get snow i'd say a good 4-6 is gonna be common with possibly a touch more. 4-6 > 2-4 I'm only razzing, lets get this a bit closer then amounts can be tossed around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Thus i refer you back to early Oct 06 LES event. Again usually if temps are below say 31 snow has never had a hard time accumulating on all surfaces. Problem is it melts quicker usually unless it is April 82. That ofcourse had record cold to greatly help the cause. Still would be cool to see snowcover for so many days like that in April. No doubt i'm not saying this wont be a nice snow event just a bit less than model qpf might be realized. A 6 inch snowstorm this late in the season is gonna be pretty sweet for the region, I just don't think this overperforms, probably a nice 4-6 inch event with some 7's mixed in. I hope you guys all cash in but I'd temper model qpf just a bit this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 4-6 > 2-4 I'm only razzing, lets get this a bit closer then amounts can be tossed around. lol no I said 2-4 might be cut off the top you guys will do fine just .6 qpf isn't gonna be a 6-8 inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Ya lol wait until the nam is showing 1-2" qpf region wide then we can all go crazy and this thread goes part 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Ya lol wait until the nam is showing 1-2" qpf region wide then we can all go crazy and this thread goes part 4 Actually based upon how tight the baroclinic zone could be with this, I could see higher than currently forecasted precip amounts come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Ya lol wait until the nam is showing 1-2" qpf region wide then we can all go crazy and this thread goes part 4 In the NAM we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Also ugh.... Harry that 3/18 pattern if you could shift that southern low further east and dig a northern stream wave in....... epic. I forgot how nice that pattern almost was, it almost looks 93ish with the strong southern wave just need some northern stream hook up. Don't get me started on the wasted potential. IF the Pacific would behave we could have it or atleast much better odd's. Still time but it is running out. Ofcourse a bit more time out that way. To get such systems ( atleast out this way ) usually you want a nice ridge in the Pacific ( so we can get help from up north diving out of Canada into the rockies/Plains ) with a bit of a active southern jet and a little ridging farther east. Alot is there for it but ala have that crappy Pacific. That 93 storm btw had MJO phase 3, +QBO, +AO/+NAO as well. ugh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 In the NAM we trust. lol, also another thing to worry about is the gfs has an elevated warm layer above 850 for the west side of the state in michigan between 850 and 700mb has an above 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 lol, also another thing to worry about is the gfs has an elevated warm layer above 850 for the west side of the state in michigan between 850 and 700mb has an above 0c. IF seasonal trends have any say in the matter i kinda like where i am sitting. Keep in mind of what the models tried to do with that system a little over a week ago. yeah the one the models took from CO to MN and instead whiffed here and gave Detroit 4-7 or so with a Track across TX to near Cleveland. Has been the case going back to January. So yeah i would not get too focused on rn/sn lines and even QPF just yet. Again this is IF the seasonal trends hold true to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This has nothing to do with cmichweather's comments on next week but everytime someone brings up warm ground and sun angle I think back to the late April 2005 snowstorm. It was 80 degrees prior to the storm. The storm began during the day with what is equal to a mid August sun angle and the snow still stuck to the roads with temps generally about 33F the whole time. I thought there would be no way the snow would stick during the day. Boy was I wrong. lol Of course I think the snow melted as it fell but accumulated at a faster rate than it melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This has nothing to do with cmichweather's comments on next week but everytime someone brings up warm ground and sun angle I think back to the late April 2005 snowstorm. It was 80 degrees prior to the storm. The storm began during the day with what is equal to a mid August sun angle and the snow still stuck to the roads with temps generally about 33F the whole time. I thought there would be no way the snow would stick during the day. Boy was I wrong. lol Of course I think the snow melted as it fell but accumulated at a faster rate than it melted. Almost forgot about that one. Not nearly as much snow out this way ( 3-6 ) but still enough to cover the roads ( even i94 ) and make them real sh!tty the following morning. Ugh i hated the drive home from work that morning after as yeah i94 was a mess with alot of ice and crap still on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Hope Moneyman enjoys this one. Wherever he is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This has nothing to do with cmichweather's comments on next week but everytime someone brings up warm ground and sun angle I think back to the late April 2005 snowstorm. It was 80 degrees prior to the storm. The storm began during the day with what is equal to a mid August sun angle and the snow still stuck to the roads with temps generally about 33F the whole time. I thought there would be no way the snow would stick during the day. Boy was I wrong. lol Of course I think the snow melted as it fell but accumulated at a faster rate than it melted. Agree. And this is not to cmich's comments either, just a general statement. When I hear the usually unending comments about sun angle/warm ground comments this time of year I get annoyed. I actually am quite pleased as this year is not nearly as bad as years past on the boards wrt some people literally thinking snow cant stick in the daytime after March 1st. What usuallly happens is that every snowfall that hits anywhere has the debbie downers saying it will have a hard time sticking, then after the storm they are all surprised. March 5/6, the ground was grossly saturated from heavy rain and tons of snowmelt, to the tune of standing water on peoples grass. Yet, rain switched to snow late afternoon and began sticking IMMEDIATELY, getting nearly 5". The same thing happened less than a week later. Im not saying its mid-winter, not denying you get more sticking on the cement during nighttime spring snows, and not denying how fast spring snow can melt...just laying out the facts of a little pet peeve of mine that I see get proven time and time again year in and year out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Agree. And this is not to cmich's comments either, just a general statement. When I hear the usually unending comments about sun angle/warm ground comments this time of year I get annoyed. I actually am quite pleased as this year is not nearly as bad as years past on the boards wrt some people literally thinking snow cant stick in the daytime after March 1st. What usuallly happens is that every snowfall that hits anywhere has the debbie downers saying it will have a hard time sticking, then after the storm they are all surprised. March 5/6, the ground was grossly saturated from heavy rain and tons of snowmelt, to the tune of standing water on peoples grass. Yet, rain switched to snow late afternoon and began sticking IMMEDIATELY, getting nearly 5". The same thing happened less than a week later. Im not saying its mid-winter, not denying you get more sticking on the cement during nighttime spring snows, and not denying how fast spring snow can melt...just laying out the facts of a little pet peeve of mine that I see get proven time and time again year in and year out. Of course it can stick, but it has to be heavy and steady to cool the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Just going off EURO mid-level RH fields, looks like 0z might have actually dropped some snow on me. 6z GEFS are pretty decent as well. Maybe climo will come through for me? Who am I kidding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 The lift may be in the DGZ too, so the aggregates will also make up for the warmer grounds/higher sun angle. The key as someone else stated too will be the precipitation rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 12z GFS is warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 12z GFS is warmer. Still a good hit north of I-94... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 ggem 96hr came north some from 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Of course it can stick, but it has to be heavy and steady to cool the ground. Rates are huge at this time of year particularly if you're coming off of a warm spell. If you're not getting good precip rates, good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 nice, you have total qpf? fwiw 12z ggem qpf total DLH 1.06 FAR 2.17 GFK 1.77 MSP 2.69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 ggem 96hr came north some from 00Z If you don't mind qpf totals, looks like a big hit here. EDIT: thanks for the totals (WOW!!!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 fwiw 12z ggem qpf total DLH 1.06 FAR 2.17 GFK 1.77 MSP 2.69 DET? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 DET? Thanks! DET 0.86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 DET 0.86 Det is rain to Mix. and Freezing rain. then some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 It feels like forecasting 2/20 all over again with regards to being on the line, wondering how much ice/snow/rain will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 It feels like forecasting 2/20 all over again with regards to being on the line, wondering how much ice/snow/rain will fall. I was JUST thinking that. Lets hope we see a repeat of 2/20 lol 12z GFS is an ice storm, UGH....but at 4 days out and the models changing every run, its worthless to worry about the details yet. And regarding snow sticking. Rates are huge for making the most out of the liquid equivalent, but again...they are NOT the end-all for accumulating snow in spring, not in the least. Nor are warm temps prior to the storm. I mean, yes, say you get a 30F day with 3-5 mile visib snow all day in mid-December and then the exact conditions again in early April. You will probably see 0.2-0.4" type of accumulations on that December day versus a trace on the April day. But do you need 0.25 mile visibility for snow to stick in the daylight hours this time of year? Absolutely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Any news on the EURO? From the freebies it looks like it's similar to the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 12Z Euro...warmer and north DET: WED 06Z 23-MAR -0.1 -1.4 1015 77 96 0.09 559 547 WED 12Z 23-MAR -1.8 1.0 1009 88 99 0.16 554 548 WED 18Z 23-MAR -1.0 2.4 1001 89 73 0.17 547 546 THU 00Z 24-MAR -2.7 -2.2 1001 87 56 0.11 541 540 THU 06Z 24-MAR -3.8 -8.6 1005 85 78 0.06 537 533 DTW: TUE 18Z 22-MAR 1.7 0.2 1021 76 89 0.05 563 546 WED 00Z 23-MAR 1.1 0.1 1018 76 94 0.06 563 548 WED 06Z 23-MAR -0.1 -0.6 1014 80 84 0.10 559 548 WED 12Z 23-MAR -1.4 2.0 1008 90 91 0.14 555 549 WED 18Z 23-MAR -0.5 3.9 1000 90 74 0.17 546 546 THU 00Z 24-MAR -2.3 -1.3 1001 88 39 0.09 541 540 THU 06Z 24-MAR -3.7 -8.5 1005 86 74 0.05 537 533 PTK: WED 00Z 23-MAR 0.8 -0.7 1019 63 96 0.08 562 547 WED 06Z 23-MAR -0.3 -2.0 1015 73 92 0.13 558 547 WED 12Z 23-MAR -2.1 0.0 1009 87 90 0.19 554 547 WED 18Z 23-MAR -1.4 0.7 1002 87 79 0.15 546 544 THU 00Z 24-MAR -3.3 -3.8 1002 86 64 0.07 541 539 MSP: TUE 12Z 22-MAR 0.7 2.8 1014 95 96 0.42 561 550 TUE 18Z 22-MAR 1.9 1.8 1010 90 74 0.24 559 551 WED 00Z 23-MAR 1.2 2.9 1005 91 83 0.08 554 550 WED 06Z 23-MAR -1.2 -2.5 1003 92 99 0.41 547 545 WED 12Z 23-MAR -3.6 -8.3 1003 88 91 0.72 540 538 WED 18Z 23-MAR -4.2 -11.0 1008 77 88 0.26 539 533 THU 00Z 24-MAR -4.9 -12.5 1015 81 91 0.05 542 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 Any news on the EURO? From the freebies it looks like it's similar to the 0z run. 0.42 for YYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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