Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Ya as a volunteer I was encouraged to glance through the others procedures you can probably glance through the office pretty quickly and get one going if you wanted 2 or if you felt guilty you could ask a forecaster to help you set up your own personalized procedure in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Part 2 Good sign. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Part 2 Good sign. LOL Not necessarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Not necessarily. You never know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Still rather large differences on the 00z GFS ensembles for being this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Interesting from DTX writeup about February , could we have a repeat? OFFICIALLY...DETROIT METRO RECORDED 10.2" OF SNOW ON THE 20TH-21ST...THE SECOND 8.0"+ STORM THIS MONTH. GETTING TWO 8.0+ SNOWSTORMS IN ACALENDAR MONTH IS AN UNUSUAL EVENT. IT HAS HAPPENED ONLY THREE TIMESIN FEBRUARY...1900...1908...1926. THE ACTIVE SNOWSTORM TRACK INFEBRUARY 1900 CARRIED OVER INTO MARCH WHEN ANOTHER BIG STORM /13.0"ON THE 6TH/. (FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS VERY STORMY PERIOD INSOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SEE WRITE-UP ON THE WEB OF "THE WINTER OF1899-1900 IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Curveball #2. Instead of going with the pack, EURO comes in more like the GFS, although somewhat slower. Just from the freebies, I'd guess there's at least some "decent" backside accumulating snow for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 6z NAM caved. Took a step towards the GFS/EURO, although it's southern wave is a lot weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Now this is a much better AFD from GRR. A run down of all the models, some supportive reasoning as to why this or that may be off, and explaining why there is still some uncertainty and thus what could happen and cause the forecast to change. .SHORT TERM...(406 AM EST THU MAR 3 2011) (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE IS DEALING WITH PCPN CHCS AND TYPES FROM TONIGHT RIGHT ON THROUGH SAT WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SERIES OF WAVES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN TREND IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND PCPN IS A BIT FARTHER TO THE NW. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PLACE REGARDING THE INCOMING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE FRONT HANGING UP FROM JUST WEST OF THE AREA /NAM/ TO THE FRONT HANGING UP WELL EAST OF THE AREA /GFS/ WITH THE MAIN WAVE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. WE HAVE BASED THIS FCST ON A UKMET/GGEM/EURO BLEND WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE...AND A BIT CLOSER TO THE NAM. WE FEEL THAT THE 00Z GFS IS PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON SOME OF THE LEAD WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IT IS SENDING THE FRONT TO THE EAST TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MAIN H5 TROUGH IS STILL QUITE A BIT WEST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PCPN MISSES MI ALMOST ALTOGETHER WITH THIS IDEA. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN...THE NAM LOOKS A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND HAS THINGS TOO FAR WEST. THIS WOULD BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA AND HAVE PCPN MAINLY RAIN. THE PREFERRED SOLUTION OF THE UKMET/GGEM/EURO HAVE THE FRONT OVER THE AREA FROM FRI EVENING INTO SAT MORNING AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST. WE BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN LEAD SHORT WAVE /SRN STREAM/ WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY THE DIGGING NRN STREAM WAVE AND KEEP THE FRONT IN THE AREA LONGER. THE PREFERRED SOLUTION HAS SOME LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS INITIAL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS. PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AS IT TAKES A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 06Z. ONCE IT DOES ARRIVE...WE WILL SEE A LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DOWN SOUTH DEPENDENT ON THE SFC TEMPS. SOME COLD AIR NEAR THE SFC TAKES A LITTLE WHILE TO BE DISPLACED WHILE TEMPS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ARE ABOVE ZERO. FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH WHERE THE SFC LAYER IS A BIT COLDER. PCPN CHCS DO NOT LOOK GOOD AS ALMOST ALL OF THE STRONG LIFT GOES INTO SATURATING THE COLUMN. IF PCPN LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WE MAY NEED A SHORT ADVISORY TO COVER SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT MIX MAY HANGING ON EARLY ON FRI...HOWEVER OUR THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE WARM AIR SHOULD DISPLACE THE COLD AIR MASS BY MID MORNING. THE NE CORNER OF THE CWFA WILL BE THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN. PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH AS SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WILL TRIGGER RAIN/SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY COME FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS THE MAIN WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT AND CLOSE TO THE AREA. A 50 KNOT LLJ WILL TRANSPORT PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MOST PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN UNTIL SAT MORNING WHEN SOME COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM STARTS TO BE INGESTED BY THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING PCPN OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE. THE TIMING OF THIS PHASING WILL DICTATE HOW QUICKLY RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW...AND HOW MUCH SNOW CAN FALL. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS SEEING SOME ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER THIS IS STILL COMPLEX AND THE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 For SSC 00Z Euro YYZ: 0.9 QPF frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I guess all rain is a lock now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 For SSC 00Z Euro YYZ: 0.9 QPF frozen Thanks kab. It looked like a good track for +SN. Hopefully the EURO/GFS will start to lock in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I guess all rain is a lock now. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Why is that? Another joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Interesting from DTX writeup about February , could we have a repeat? OFFICIALLY...DETROIT METRO RECORDED 10.2" OF SNOW ON THE 20TH-21ST...THE SECOND 8.0"+ STORM THIS MONTH. GETTING TWO 8.0+ SNOWSTORMS IN ACALENDAR MONTH IS AN UNUSUAL EVENT. IT HAS HAPPENED ONLY THREE TIMESIN FEBRUARY...1900...1908...1926. THE ACTIVE SNOWSTORM TRACK INFEBRUARY 1900 CARRIED OVER INTO MARCH WHEN ANOTHER BIG STORM /13.0"ON THE 6TH/. (FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS VERY STORMY PERIOD INSOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SEE WRITE-UP ON THE WEB OF "THE WINTER OF1899-1900 IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Hopefully this first storm is strong enough and will suppress the next one a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 06z NAM is weak sauce...1012mb low travels across S. MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 There was a few years that had that from back then going back into the 1800s. I believe 1897-98 and 1898-99 had this as well. Out this way i know it did. One of them own the top spot for March snowfall record as well and finished with over 40" here that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Interesting from DTX writeup about February , could we have a repeat? OFFICIALLY...DETROIT METRO RECORDED 10.2" OF SNOW ON THE 20TH-21ST...THE SECOND 8.0"+ STORM THIS MONTH. GETTING TWO 8.0+ SNOWSTORMS IN ACALENDAR MONTH IS AN UNUSUAL EVENT. IT HAS HAPPENED ONLY THREE TIMESIN FEBRUARY...1900...1908...1926. THE ACTIVE SNOWSTORM TRACK INFEBRUARY 1900 CARRIED OVER INTO MARCH WHEN ANOTHER BIG STORM /13.0"ON THE 6TH/. (FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS VERY STORMY PERIOD INSOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SEE WRITE-UP ON THE WEB OF "THE WINTER OF1899-1900 IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN"). Don't buy into the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 snowstormcanuck will love the 12z NAM. It's not bad here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 NAM continues to look like crap but whats new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 NAM continues to look like crap but whats new? Speak for yourself, this run was an improvement. Just shift it 20 miles west and I'll be a happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Speak for yourself, this run was an improvement. Just shift it 20 miles west and I'll be a happy camper. yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Speak for yourself, this run was an improvement. Just shift it 20 miles west and I'll be a happy camper. ANY shift west is good so yeah you are correct about that. I still have not given up on getting some decent snows out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 snowstormcanuck will love the 12z NAM. It's not bad here either. we get wrecked on the backend precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 BowMeHunter : "Nice how the 2nd turd slowly pinches its way through the ass cheeks" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 BowMeHunter : "Nice how the 2nd turd slowly pinches its way through the ass cheeks" lol yeah that was some funny **** literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 good to see things trending towards the GFS. still touch and go though, and as Hoosier mentioned, lots of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 ANY shift west is good so yeah you are correct about that. I still have not given up on getting some decent snows out of this. Hopefully we can get the second wave far enoguh west for you too. But we would need a much weaker initial wave. In any event I would be getting quite excited with the trends if I were in Toronto, Cleveand or Bufffalo right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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