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March 4-6 Potential Winter Storm part 2


Hoosier

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Ya as a volunteer I was encouraged to glance through the others procedures you can probably glance through the office pretty quickly and get one going if you wanted 2 or if you felt guilty you could ask a forecaster to help you set up your own personalized procedure in an hour or so.

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Interesting from DTX writeup about February , could we have a repeat?

OFFICIALLY...DETROIT METRO RECORDED 10.2" OF SNOW ON THE 20TH-21ST...THE SECOND 8.0"+ STORM THIS MONTH. GETTING TWO 8.0+ SNOWSTORMS IN ACALENDAR MONTH IS AN UNUSUAL EVENT. IT HAS HAPPENED ONLY THREE TIMESIN FEBRUARY...1900...1908...1926. THE ACTIVE SNOWSTORM TRACK INFEBRUARY 1900 CARRIED OVER INTO MARCH WHEN ANOTHER BIG STORM /13.0"ON THE 6TH/. (FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS VERY STORMY PERIOD INSOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SEE WRITE-UP ON THE WEB OF "THE WINTER OF1899-1900 IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN").

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Now this is a much better AFD from GRR. A run down of all the models, some supportive reasoning as to why this or that may be off, and explaining why there is still some uncertainty and thus what could happen and cause the forecast to change.

.SHORT TERM...(406 AM EST THU MAR 3 2011)

(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE IS DEALING WITH PCPN CHCS AND

TYPES FROM TONIGHT RIGHT ON THROUGH SAT WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND

SERIES OF WAVES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN TREND IN THE

TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND PCPN IS A BIT FARTHER TO THE NW.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PLACE REGARDING THE INCOMING

SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 00Z

MODEL SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE FRONT HANGING UP FROM JUST WEST OF

THE AREA /NAM/ TO THE FRONT HANGING UP WELL EAST OF THE AREA /GFS/

WITH THE MAIN WAVE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. WE HAVE BASED THIS

FCST ON A UKMET/GGEM/EURO BLEND WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE

RANGE...AND A BIT CLOSER TO THE NAM.

WE FEEL THAT THE 00Z GFS IS PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON SOME OF THE

LEAD WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IT IS SENDING THE FRONT TO THE EAST

TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MAIN H5 TROUGH IS STILL

QUITE A BIT WEST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PCPN

MISSES MI ALMOST ALTOGETHER WITH THIS IDEA. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE

COIN...THE NAM LOOKS A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE

LOW AND HAS THINGS TOO FAR WEST. THIS WOULD BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPS

TO THE ENTIRE AREA AND HAVE PCPN MAINLY RAIN. THE PREFERRED SOLUTION

OF THE UKMET/GGEM/EURO HAVE THE FRONT OVER THE AREA FROM FRI EVENING

INTO SAT MORNING AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST. WE BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN

LEAD SHORT WAVE /SRN STREAM/ WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY THE DIGGING NRN

STREAM WAVE AND KEEP THE FRONT IN THE AREA LONGER.

THE PREFERRED SOLUTION HAS SOME LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT

AS INITIAL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS. PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL

LATE AS IT TAKES A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN...AND LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 06Z. ONCE IT DOES ARRIVE...WE

WILL SEE A LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DOWN SOUTH

DEPENDENT ON THE SFC TEMPS. SOME COLD AIR NEAR THE SFC TAKES A

LITTLE WHILE TO BE DISPLACED WHILE TEMPS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ARE

ABOVE ZERO. FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH WHERE

THE SFC LAYER IS A BIT COLDER. PCPN CHCS DO NOT LOOK GOOD AS ALMOST

ALL OF THE STRONG LIFT GOES INTO SATURATING THE COLUMN. IF PCPN

LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WE MAY NEED A SHORT ADVISORY TO COVER SOME LIGHT

ICE ACCUMULATION.

SOME LIGHT MIX MAY HANGING ON EARLY ON FRI...HOWEVER OUR THOUGHTS

ARE THAT THE WARM AIR SHOULD DISPLACE THE COLD AIR MASS BY MID

MORNING. THE NE CORNER OF THE CWFA WILL BE THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER

TO ALL RAIN. PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH AS SHORT WAVES

WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WILL TRIGGER RAIN/SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY COME FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY

SAT AS THE MAIN WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT AND CLOSE TO THE AREA. A

50 KNOT LLJ WILL TRANSPORT PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

MOST PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN UNTIL SAT MORNING WHEN SOME COLDER AIR

ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM STARTS TO BE INGESTED BY THE SYSTEM.

THIS WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING PCPN OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW

GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE. THE TIMING OF THIS PHASING WILL DICTATE HOW

QUICKLY RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW...AND HOW MUCH SNOW CAN FALL. WE CAN

NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS SEEING SOME ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER THIS

IS STILL COMPLEX AND THE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

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Interesting from DTX writeup about February , could we have a repeat?

OFFICIALLY...DETROIT METRO RECORDED 10.2" OF SNOW ON THE 20TH-21ST...THE SECOND 8.0"+ STORM THIS MONTH. GETTING TWO 8.0+ SNOWSTORMS IN ACALENDAR MONTH IS AN UNUSUAL EVENT. IT HAS HAPPENED ONLY THREE TIMESIN FEBRUARY...1900...1908...1926. THE ACTIVE SNOWSTORM TRACK INFEBRUARY 1900 CARRIED OVER INTO MARCH WHEN ANOTHER BIG STORM /13.0"ON THE 6TH/. (FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS VERY STORMY PERIOD INSOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SEE WRITE-UP ON THE WEB OF "THE WINTER OF1899-1900 IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN").

:wub:

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:wub:

There was a few years that had that from back then going back into the 1800s. I believe 1897-98 and 1898-99 had this as well. Out this way i know it did. One of them own the top spot for March snowfall record as well and finished with over 40" here that month.

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Interesting from DTX writeup about February , could we have a repeat?

OFFICIALLY...DETROIT METRO RECORDED 10.2" OF SNOW ON THE 20TH-21ST...THE SECOND 8.0"+ STORM THIS MONTH. GETTING TWO 8.0+ SNOWSTORMS IN ACALENDAR MONTH IS AN UNUSUAL EVENT. IT HAS HAPPENED ONLY THREE TIMESIN FEBRUARY...1900...1908...1926. THE ACTIVE SNOWSTORM TRACK INFEBRUARY 1900 CARRIED OVER INTO MARCH WHEN ANOTHER BIG STORM /13.0"ON THE 6TH/. (FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS VERY STORMY PERIOD INSOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SEE WRITE-UP ON THE WEB OF "THE WINTER OF1899-1900 IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN").

Don't buy into the hype. :whistle:

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ANY shift west is good so yeah you are correct about that. I still have not given up on getting some decent snows out of this. :weight_lift:

Hopefully we can get the second wave far enoguh west for you too.

But we would need a much weaker initial wave.

In any event I would be getting quite excited with the trends if I were in Toronto, Cleveand or Bufffalo right now.

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