mitchnick Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 7 of those give DC/Annapolis close to .1". Everyone will think I'm crazy but with the EURO coming in a little more amped and all the GEFS members coming in a lot more amped than the OP not to mention the NAM...I think our chances at at least seeing some snow might be okay...which is an improvement Euro only gives RIC about .08" qpf we'll be lucky to see flurries the way it looks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I know it's a long shot for up here in Wash especially Balt but remember the Thundersnow event? The models didn't have that solution pegged until about 72-84 hours out. That's the frame we are getting into now. And furthermore, that storm ended up Pounding the northeast coast without much guidance supporting that even leading up to the event. I wouldn't be completely surprised if started seeing a little more amped solutions riding into this event. I think Richmond stands a really good shot at 2-3 inches if not more if things start riding more towards what has been unfolding today. ***Wishcast alert!*** Try also remembering what the rest of the synoptics looked like... NAO/AO block instead of a huge suppressive polar vort. It makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I know it's a long shot for up here in Wash especially Balt but remember the Thundersnow event? The models didn't have that solution pegged until about 72-84 hours out. That's the frame we are getting into now. And furthermore, that storm ended up Pounding the northeast coast without much guidance supporting that even leading up to the event. I wouldn't be completely surprised if started seeing a little more amped solutions riding into this event. I think Richmond stands a really good shot at 2-3 inches if not more if things start riding more towards what has been unfolding today. the models were actually good at mid/upper levels then tho. the shift on the 12z euro is realllllly minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 ***Wishcast alert!*** Try also remembering what the rest of the synoptics looked like... NAO/AO block instead of a huge suppressive polar vort. It makes a difference. the block was pretty minor and east based headed toward neutral.. not exactly optimal either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 DT is EURO says that VA gets no snow other than southeast VA typical RIC bias of his the model clearly spits out .10" in ric to lyh, roa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 ***Wishcast alert!*** Try also remembering what the rest of the synoptics looked like... NAO/AO block instead of a huge suppressive polar vort. It makes a difference. Very true. Another weenie question: What about appearance of a coastal low that the models have been spitting out the last few runs. What are the implications of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Very true. Another weenie question: What about appearance of a coastal low that the models have been spitting out the last few runs. What are the implications of that? That kind of feature has been coming up on a lot of these Southeast storms lately... it's too weak to do its own thing (i.e. fly north/NW and intensify), and will get swept off to the east by the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That kind of feature has been coming up on a lot of these Southeast storms lately... it's too weak to do its own thing (i.e. fly north/NW and intensify), and will get swept off to the east by the polar vortex. Yeah I was definitely getting desperate with this one. I move to Seattle for at least a little while on the 20th so with this warm streak projected to come up this was my last shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yeah I was definitely getting desperate with this one. I move to Seattle for at least a little while on the 20th so with this warm streak projected to come up this was my last shot. Good news: Seattle has a good shot at getting snow starting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hopefully someday we will have infinite and continuous observations Joking of course. I love the spot we are at in current modeling--still getting better but it is quite clear the atmosphere will always have a certain amount of variability in it. A world where we could perfectly model weather would be boring. We will have multiple generations of folks working in weather as long as the models can not simulate weather perfectly. Unless the N-S equations are fully solved and can accurately model turbulence, we develop a better programming method which does not involve discretization of the dynamic/thermodynamic equations, we develop a system which simulates scales down to the micrometer level, and we have infinite and continuous obs--weather will always be chaotic to some degree. It makes it fun--IMO. I suspect reaching perfection in modeling may be a moot point...because weather modification may become pervasive first. Definitely not in the near future but the day will come when man tempers the ferocity of storms; bringing the ultimate in 'weather boredom.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Time to hang it up until March. It has been 18 years since the Storm of the Century. So we're due. '93 was so 'last century' anyway so its time for a March Lion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I suspect reaching perfection in modeling may be a moot point...because weather modification may become pervasive first. Definitely not in the near future but the day will come when man tempers the ferocity of storms; bringing the ultimate in 'weather boredom.' Or possibly his own destruction. Regarding the mid week storm or non storm, I find it interesting that now the SREFS have jumped a little north and west with a couple starting to show that familiar "second" stronger batch of precip coming in from west of the Apps. This is similar to the progression of model solutions with our only real snow, and with the one over the weekend. Both were first modeled to bring precip to us with the lead "low" if you will, and both ended up with the heavier precip coming from "behind" and much farther west than initially modeled. I know the setups are and were different, but it is interesting to see a couple of the SREF solutions now start showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Time to hang it up until March. It has been 18 years since the Storm of the Century. So we're due. '93 was so 'last century' anyway so its time for a March Lion. It seems like things are much colder and drier these days, even in el nino years. Don't think we will see another Storm of the Century in our lifetimes, I expect Ontario to become Tundra in a few decades with heavy snow falling into April and May in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It seems like things are much colder and drier these days, even in el nino years. Don't think we will see another Storm of the Century in our lifetimes, I expect Ontario to become Tundra in a few decades. LOL... did you not see what happened in December through mid-January? They torched! Local weather != global change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 LOL... did you not see what happened in December through mid-January? They torched! Local weather != global change. put 5 inches of snow on your map for vab please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 we're in range where the storm should re-tempt us at the very least. if the nam doubles my qpf to .04" i might go back into weenie mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 LOL... did you not see what happened in December through mid-January? They torched! Local weather != global change. Short-term! Joking. Yeah, it's interesting eh? Looking the anomaly maps for the US are misleading because they show national negative departures, some parts of the arctic have been quite cold though. The -AO probably played a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 that's right over my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 that's right over my house at least that's for the day after your birthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 at least that's for the day after your birthday soon dallas will have more snow on the yr than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 bahhahahahah at the 18z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 somehow the gfs got even worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM and GFS is worlds apart right know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 somehow the gfs got even worse What did the Euro give us? Nada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 What did the Euro give us? Nada? yeah, tho the precip did come north a bit (mainly the light precip). i think .05 made it to like central va and .1 to ric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM and GFS is worlds apart right know around here not so much.. in fl yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Enjoy... full post: http://madusweather.com/?p=821 Most of the snow in this one will be isolated to the western Appalachians and to southern VA and NC, with accumulations of half and inch or less possible up to the Mason-Dixon line. I weighted the NAM heavily again with this latest forecast, and I included some input from the ECMWF. I think the GFS is completely off in shutting down the precipitation once it gets south and east of the Apps, which is mostly due to the weakening of the upper-level vorticity that the GFS portrays. Here's the first call for the event... a final map will be put up either late tomorrow or around noon on Wednesday. Temperatures will be a bit of an issue as well, with rain and mixed precipitation in NC and VA to go with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 ^^ boooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Enjoy... full post: http://madusweather.com/?p=821 Most of the snow in this one will be isolated to the western Appalachians and to southern VA and NC, with accumulations of half and inch or less possible up to the Mason-Dixon line. I weighted the NAM heavily again with this latest forecast, and I included some input from the ECMWF. I think the GFS is completely off in shutting down the precipitation once it gets south and east of the Apps, which is mostly due to the weakening of the upper-level vorticity that the GFS portrays. Here's the first call for the event... a final map will be put up either late tomorrow or around noon on Wednesday. Temperatures will be a bit of an issue as well, with rain and mixed precipitation in NC and VA. Good call IMO. I find it ironic though that the snow line takes sort of a cad signature look except opposite lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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