Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Can't complain I won't mnd a nice few days of warm, this just isn't our storm I'm almost positive it Wont hit us hope I'm wrong temps are going to be in the 20's and low 30's thats not warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Amazing what this event has turned into from BECS to partly cloudy. Hey it's still a few days out, but it's on life support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 We knew from the very start that without a good -NAO block over Greenland, we were going to need the storm thats now in the near term to consolidate the energy and bomb out to our northeast and act as a 50/50. The problem is, the system for tommorrow is modeled to miss the phase and its all down hill from there like a domino effect. If we get that first low, then we can start looking ahead. I've also always been a firm believer that when multiple threats exist, its often hard for the models to look beyong the initial threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 We knew from the very start that without a good -NAO block over Greenland, we were going to need the storm thats now in the near term to consolidate the energy and bomb out to our northeast and acting as our 50/50. The problem is, the system for tommorrow is modeled to miss the phase and its all down hill from there like a domino effect. If we get that first low, then we can start looking ahead. I've also always been a firm believer that when multiple threats exist, its often hard for the models to look beyong the initial threat. Oh I completely agree,and I think the nam and gfs look close with the first storm as well. Thats why I said this is on life support and not dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Amazing what this event has turned into from BECS to partly cloudy. Hey it's still a few days out, but it's on life support Some folks went a little too crazy over a few model runs at a week out. That was way to early to be hyping a monster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Some folks went a little too crazy over a few model runs at a week out. That was way to early to be hyping a monster storm. I don't think a "monster storm" was being hyped but rather the potential for one. And frankly, I do not think that it was too early to hype that potential (which is still there, probably won't be realized but has a remote chance of revival) because it had actually been there on about 3-4 consecutive ECMWF, GFS, and GGEM runs over a 2-3 days period. The problem is that many folks do not understand the difference between hyping the "monster storm" and the potential for one. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 when will it be appropriate to say "february fail"? lol this thead is dead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Central Park Feb. 2010 had 36.9 inches of snow. March of 2010 had a trace of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Central Park Feb. 2010 had 36.9 inches of snow. March of 2010 had a trace of snow. I hope we aren't going down that route... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Central Park Feb. 2010 had 36.9 inches of snow. March of 2010 had a trace of snow. An awesome last 12 months it has been..... almost 100 inches of snow, even with the 2/6/2010 near miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I hope we aren't going down that route... I doubt it this season. March Ninas are a heck of lot different than a March Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I doubt it this season. March Ninas are a heck of lot different than a March Nino. We've seen some awesome Marches in La Niña...1960, 1967, 2001 etc. Even March 2008 was pretty cold, especially up north. On the other hand, March 1958 was one of the best and it occurred in a strong El Niño. Westchester had two massive Nor'easters that month, and the Poconos got absolutely raped. -NAO FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 We've seen some awesome Marches in La Niña...1960, 1967, 2001 etc. Even March 2008 was pretty cold, especially up north. On the other hand, March 1958 was one of the best and it occurred in a strong El Niño. Westchester had two massive Nor'easters that month, and the Poconos got absolutely raped. -NAO FTW. March 1996 was pretty good too, but then again pretty much every month from November through April was lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Euro still a whiff..and narrowly misses bringing a storm up the coast at 132 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 We've seen some awesome Marches in La Niña...1960, 1967, 2001 etc. Even March 2008 was pretty cold, especially up north. On the other hand, March 1958 was one of the best and it occurred in a strong El Niño. Westchester had two massive Nor'easters that month, and the Poconos got absolutely raped. -NAO FTW. March 2001 was awesome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Euro still a whiff..and narrowly misses bringing a storm up the coast at 132 hrs is it any closer than it has been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Euro still a whiff..and narrowly misses bringing a storm up the coast at 132 hrs Sounds as if it's trending closer to a big hit, John? I just don't understand how this massive s/w coming into the southern stream doesn't produce some sort of storm. The 500mb progression looks very strange to me, and I wonder if the Thursday threat will reappear as the models get a better grip on how healthy the shortwave is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 is it any closer than it has been? With the Thu event, no...Saturday event, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 With the Thu event, no...Saturday event, yes. What is this Saturday event? Is that the clipper the GFS shows, or the remnants of the Thursday storm that are picked up by a new trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 What is this Saturday event? Is that the clipper the GFS shows, or the remnants of the Thursday storm that are picked up by a new trough? Remnants of the southern stream that amplify up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Remnants of the southern stream that amplify up the coast Does the Euro have the warm pattern in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Does the Euro have the warm pattern in the long range? Yup..60 F in Central VA at 186 hours..we're all easily into the 40's next Monday..most areas probably nearer to 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yup..60 F in Central VA at 186 hours..we're all easily into the 40's next Monday..most areas probably nearer to 50 Yuck, it sounds as if the Euro isn't buying the GFS idea of keeping the Northeast cool. I wouldn't be surprised to see my snowpack evaporate next week despite the fact that we have over a foot on the ground with more coming tomorrow night; it's really hard to keep snowpack in February with mild temperatures and clear days, the sun angle really does a number on it. The best of this winter looks to be behind us unless the blocking comes back, and none of the models are showing anything but an east-based NAO with the SE ridge remaining in control. La Niña has definitely asserted herself at this point, might be a sad ending for NYC metro after an epic stretch of cold and snow. I thought our fun might last a little longer, but the magic is starting to fade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yuck, it sounds as if the Euro isn't buying the GFS idea of keeping the Northeast cool. I wouldn't be surprised to see my snowpack evaporate next week despite the fact that we have over a foot on the ground with more coming tomorrow night; it's really hard to keep snowpack in February with mild temperatures and clear days, the sun angle really does a number on it. The best of this winter looks to be behind us unless the blocking comes back, and none of the models are showing anything but an east-based NAO with the SE ridge remaining in control. La Niña has definitely asserted herself at this point, might be a sad ending for NYC metro after an epic stretch of cold and snow. I thought our fun might last a little longer, but the magic is starting to fade. Well, ya know, it just couldnt have lasted forever... Had to end sometime.. Yet we still have latter feb and March ahead, so I wouldnt call. a total halt to it just yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yuck, it sounds as if the Euro isn't buying the GFS idea of keeping the Northeast cool. I wouldn't be surprised to see my snowpack evaporate next week despite the fact that we have over a foot on the ground with more coming tomorrow night; it's really hard to keep snowpack in February with mild temperatures and clear days, the sun angle really does a number on it. The best of this winter looks to be behind us unless the blocking comes back, and none of the models are showing anything but an east-based NAO with the SE ridge remaining in control. La Niña has definitely asserted herself at this point, might be a sad ending for NYC metro after an epic stretch of cold and snow. I thought our fun might last a little longer, but the magic is starting to fade. what happened to your big March 1956 repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yuck, it sounds as if the Euro isn't buying the GFS idea of keeping the Northeast cool. I wouldn't be surprised to see my snowpack evaporate next week despite the fact that we have over a foot on the ground with more coming tomorrow night; it's really hard to keep snowpack in February with mild temperatures and clear days, the sun angle really does a number on it. The best of this winter looks to be behind us unless the blocking comes back, and none of the models are showing anything but an east-based NAO with the SE ridge remaining in control. La Niña has definitely asserted herself at this point, might be a sad ending for NYC metro after an epic stretch of cold and snow. I thought our fun might last a little longer, but the magic is starting to fade. the end of the run is very ugly. Huge Ridge over the east with a GOA low over the west. It hurts my eyes but im glad i cashed in on 63" before the pattern broke. Hoping for some end of february/march magic, but whatever happens happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 the end of the run is very ugly. Huge Ridge over the east with a GOA low over the west. It hurts my eyes but im glad i cashed in on 63" before the pattern broke. Hoping for some end of february/march magic, but whatever happens happens. It's not really that bad on the 0z ECM...the PV over Quebec/Labrador keeps the East near normal from Day 7-10...the North Atlantic never completely loses the blocky look and then we have a huge -AO developing at Day 10. You can see how on the Day 10 map the 50/50 type low is locking in the cold to NYC metro/New England: Definitely looks as if the blocking is reviving in the high-latitudes at Day 10, although the Pacific looks insanely poor: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It's really crazy how the AO block develops on the 0z ECM...you have a -NAO east look at 144 with the ridge over Northern Greenland: The PV then gets totally booted from the Arctic...that should help Canada fill with cold air in the longer range but we'll see if the Pacific can cooperate to let some of it in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 After a brief warmup mid-month winter should go out with a bang you can see the pattern becoming more favorable towards the end of recent GFS runs. One other note, if we squeeze a bomb in here in the next week or so it will have large downstream effects. I doubt next week torches as much as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It's really crazy how the AO block develops on the 0z ECM...you have a -NAO east look at 144 with the ridge over Northern Greenland: The PV then gets totally booted from the Arctic...that should help Canada fill with cold air in the longer range but we'll see if the Pacific can cooperate to let some of it in.. 0z GEFS, 6z GEFS and 0z Euro Ensembles all have the nao turning negative around February 15th-18th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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