Tons of potential for an Early Dec Storm

[mdwx]

lll go with Dec 10-11th in Baltimore.

[Ji]

lll go with Dec 10-11th in Baltimore.

that storm your jumping on was suppose to happen in the Dec 2-5 time frame. Everything is being pushed back

[Dalfy]

that storm your jumping on was suppose to happen in the Dec 2-5 time frame. Everything is being pushed back

Did you see the 6z gfs

[MJO812]

Dec 5-10

[Andyace]

it's a fantasy

[ayuud]

tis the season for lake cutters

[Lee]

After going thru potential analogues to this winter, 73-74 unfortunately still looks like the one we're more and more likely following. Just for kicks, here's a 500mb map from then.Alot of similarity. Look @ how the block upstream was having a tough time squelching the SE ridge as it is now.

Of course, this is only a one day snap shot, so, could still not follow the same foot steps hereafter, but something similar is likely i.m.o..

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_reanal-u.cgi?re=namer≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&yy=1973&mm=11&dd=24&hh=12&overlay=no≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&yy=&mm=&dd=&hh=.

[Brick Tamland]

Dec 7 for NC

[rainstorm]

flurries for VAB on jan 27th.

[allman15]

flurries for VAB on jan 27th.

it may mix and turn to drizzle..good luck

[atownwxwatcher]

December 5th to December 12th in that range for KABE region!

[2010 extreme]

Now that winter has been cancelled, storms will continue to get pushed back to Dec 2011. "WINTER RESCHEDULE"

that storm your jumping on was suppose to happen in the Dec 2-5 time frame. Everything is being pushed back

[nynjpaweather]

After going thru potential analogues to this winter, 73-74 unfortunately still looks like the one we're more and more likely following. Just for kicks, here's a 500mb map from then.Alot of similarity. Look @ how the block upstream was having a tough time squelching the SE ridge as it is now.

Of course, this is only a one day snap shot, so, could still not follow the same foot steps hereafter, but something similar is likely i.m.o..

http://vortex.plymou...y=&mm=&dd=&hh=.

What's the analog years that analog to 73/74 and how well did those years match to what happened in 73/73?

I don't mean to single out Lee here, whom I am sure was just trying to look for a match. However, when did this analog theory become a viable forecast? Okay, so 73/74 looks some what like the pattern now. Does that mean the same atmospheric interactions will happen? How well did analogs work out last year? Did they foretell the quiet spell in late January or the almost history snow events in February?

My point is that the winter patterns of past years can only tell us so much and does not mean the same results of that year will happen this year.

Regardless, I applaud Lee for the research.

[Brick Tamland]

The GFS had been showing a good snow for me around 12/5 to 12/7. No one seems to be talking about it today, though.

[NinjaWarrior2]

December 10-20th

[Wonderdog]

The models have consistenly been pointing to a possibility of some snow anywhere from 12/01-10 for a few days now for the east coast whether it's a coastal or some snow that may occur on the back end of a storm moving through the Appalacians. Heck, even hm is hyping it now. That's all I need for verification.

[buckeye]

that storm your jumping on was suppose to happen in the Dec 2-5 time frame. Everything is being pushed back

according to jb we only got about a 3 week window of opportunity ahead of us. Snow getting 'pushed back' is simply not an option.

[keggwx]

Hope you like rain.

[Stebo]

East of 95 and South of a DCA to PHL line Dec 27th

West of 95 and North of a DCA to PHL line Dec 10th

[Kmlwx]

East of 95 and South of a DCA to PHL line Dec 27th

West of 95 and North of a DCA to PHL line Dec 10th

What if I'm right on the line? Dec 17th? lol

[Alpha5]

What if it didnt snow

[Stebo]

What if I'm right on the line? Dec 17th? lol

Sure

[Analog96]

After going thru potential analogues to this winter, 73-74 unfortunately still looks like the one we're more and more likely following. Just for kicks, here's a 500mb map from then.Alot of similarity. Look @ how the block upstream was having a tough time squelching the SE ridge as it is now.

Of course, this is only a one day snap shot, so, could still not follow the same foot steps hereafter, but something similar is likely i.m.o..

http://vortex.plymou...y=&mm=&dd=&hh=.

And it doesn't make any difference to you that the NAO was positive in 1973-74 and it's negative this year?

[Lee]

And it doesn't make any difference to you that the NAO was positive in 1973-74 and it's negative this year?

Of course it would make a difference,lol. Only been an amateur Met , Climate statistician for the County and NWS Spotter for over 30 years,let alone lurking the boards since they've been around,lol.

I was thinking that winter was mainly negative. Actually read a post on here that said it was. Oh well, guess I should have looked it up myself. Have got too used to getting info from the forums(not taking the time to look up). I'll know to do my own research now .

As far as apparent weather this month there have been some similarities, regardless of the NAO. I see there was a 50-50 low in place around this time then, but yet that big ole SE ridge was still there wasn't it?

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_reanal-u.cgi?re=nhem≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&yy=1973&mm=11&dd=23&hh=12&overlay=no≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&yy=&mm=&dd=&hh=

Don't mean to come off as a smart*** but you being a "professional" could have been a little nicer with your comment . You could have just stated that it was negative.

[Dr No]

After going thru potential analogues to this winter, 73-74 unfortunately still looks like the one we're more and more likely following. Just for kicks, here's a 500mb map from then.Alot of similarity. Look @ how the block upstream was having a tough time squelching the SE ridge as it is now.

Of course, this is only a one day snap shot, so, could still not follow the same foot steps hereafter, but something similar is likely i.m.o..

http://vortex.plymou...y=&mm=&dd=&hh=.

What a year, it wiped Greenland off the map!

[CooL]

December 22, First measureable snow from DC to NYC

[Road Runner]

The best potential for snow is looking to be between December 10-12th,2010. The threat is for a near hit or a nor'easter. I am contemplating a couple of scenarios. The best scenario is for a preceding system to bring warmer air to the area before being knocked down by a cold front (which stalls prior to the 11th of December), and a second system originating near TX may move across the South and lift using the stalled boundary mentioned earlier ...and that is approx. on the 11th of December. The second storm might be the nor'easter (depending on the proximity of the stalled front to the East Coast), and I assume that we will have sufficient cold air in place by then.

I issued this call all the way back on November 12th, 2010 on EUSWX [ALMOST A MONTH BEFORE THE POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER]

p.s not just this call but many other dates/events have been issued that are grouped into sets or sub-patterns.

A Workable group of sets for the 2008 winter has been issued and verified [off by two days at most] , and workable sets for the previous periods and the upcoming period for the 2010 year [off by no more than one day so far!] has been issued as well..

[Typhoon Tip]

I suppose the best way to get it to snow pervasively for all (GL, M/A, NE ...etc) is for me (in particular) to come out and say things don't look all that great...

1) The NAO is negative and tasty and equally so failing to mean much for snow threats thus far - yuck. Compounding, recent CPC derivatives try to elevated the index some 2SD going into December. Typically for large scale snow events we want a variable NAO. When the block locks in a persistent negative NAO that correlates better for the M/A proper, while a lot of other folks across the eastern conus get screwed. If the value is negative but rising there is a weak argument for an Archembaultian type deal in there, but the PAN really needs to cooperate ...which,

2) It's not...at least not recently. It's progged to rise to perhaps -.5SD, which in its self is not a sexy value, no, but, from a starting point of less that -2SD, that represented about a 2SD total gain - hard to imagine that much change wouldn't have an effect on the pattern. It remains to be seen how much that will be in the daily determination of the orientation of the flow (still about a week away), but last nights CPC derivatives also show the PNA then falling again past the first of December ---> 5th or so. It would seem any rising PNA's effect on the pattern would register at least in an operational ECM or GFS solution here in there, yet these tools of current distraught manage to not move the western trough out at least excuse imaginable... In fact the operational GFS was truly frustrating the last two cycles, showing wave after wave rollin' up the western flanks of the Greenland block instead of taking the well-correlated preferred southerly routes. -NAOs don't typically eastern Lakes cutters.

To sum up: the teleconnectors suck and the model specific deterministic solutions also suck - so that means that sucky teleconnector layout argues for sucky deterministic solutions, and since the deterministic solutions are so sucky, there is fair amount of confidence (probably better than 50/50) that the next 2 weeks are going to suck.

BUT, it is important to remember not to get caught up in the weeds. Teleconnections lead corrective measures, true ...but these values are dynamic too, they just don't changes as fast.

Also, I was just remembering back to December, 2003, and the The Megalopolitan Snow Storm. Prior to that event there was one of those absurd southerly gales along the EC. Some places even as far N as southern New England had DPs of 70F with 50+mph gusts tipping tree tops and flickering transformers. Sheets of rain culminated in a ribbon echo squall from pretty much RIC to Caribou in Maine.... Wild night. But, a week later a polar high banked into Maine and a series of impulses phased along the M/A and a decent early snow event took place from Baltimore on up. Things can change.

[Kmlwx]

I issued this call all the way back on November 12th, 2010 on EUSWX [ALMOST A MONTH BEFORE THE POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER]

p.s not just this call but many other dates/events have been issued that are grouped into sets or sub-patterns.

A Workable group of sets for the 2008 winter has been issued and verified [off by two days at most] , and workable sets for the previous periods and the upcoming period for the 2010 year [off by no more than one day so far!] has been issued as well..

Are you WX1996?

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

I suppose the best way to get it to snow pervasively for all (GL, M/A, NE ...etc) is for me (in particular) to come out and say things don't look all that great...

1) The NAO is negative and tasty and equally so failing to mean much for snow threats thus far - yuck. Compounding, recent CPC derivatives try to elevated the index some 2SD going into December. Typically for large scale snow events we want a variable NAO. When the block locks in a persistent negative NAO that correlates better for the M/A proper, while a lot of other folks across the eastern conus get screwed. If the value is negative but rising there is a weak argument for an Archembaultian type deal in there, but the PAN really needs to cooperate ...which,

2) It's not...at least not recently. It's progged to rise to perhaps -.5SD, which in its self is not a sexy value, no, but, from a starting point of less that -2SD, that represented about a 2SD total gain - hard to imagine that much change wouldn't have an effect on the pattern. It remains to be seen how much that will be in the daily determination of the orientation of the flow (still about a week away), but last nights CPC derivatives also show the PNA then falling again past the first of December ---> 5th or so. It would seem any rising PNA's effect on the pattern would register at least in an operational ECM or GFS solution here in there, yet these tools of current distraught manage to not move the western trough out at least excuse imaginable... In fact the operational GFS was truly frustrating the last two cycles, showing wave after wave rollin' up the western flanks of the Greenland block instead of taking the well-correlated preferred southerly routes. -NAOs don't typically eastern Lakes cutters.

To sum up: the teleconnectors suck and the model specific deterministic solutions also suck - so that means that sucky teleconnector layout argues for sucky deterministic solutions, and since the deterministic solutions are so sucky, there is fair amount of confidence (probably better than 50/50) that the next 2 weeks are going to suck.

BUT, it is important to remember not to get caught up in the weeds. Teleconnections lead corrective measures, true ...but these values are dynamic too, they just don't changes as fast.

Also, I was just remembering back to December, 2003, and the The Megalopolitan Snow Storm. Prior to that event there was one of those absurd southerly gales along the EC. Some places even as far N as southern New England had DPs of 70F with 50+mph gusts tipping tree tops and flickering transformers. Sheets of rain culminated in a ribbon echo squall from pretty much RIC to Caribou in Maine.... Wild night. But, a week later a polar high banked into Maine and a series of impulses phased along the M/A and a decent early snow event took place from Baltimore on up. Things can change.

Well, based on what you said it doesn't look like the upcoming signals are pointing to a blowtorch of any sorts aside from a day or two of a lakes cutter...so that and along with the continued -NAO is some goods news.

Thanks for the update. Hopefully the quick transition to neutral PNA at least gives us something to follow for early December.