Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think the GFS implies there would be some 1-3" snows around from the upper level energy passage. Expecting a global model to pick up on dynamically driven precip from an H5 vort at this time range is a little much. The implication is there. IF the GFS is right about the H5 its probably a 1-3" snowfall around somewhere in our area. sounds about right if it holds that look.. maybe a bit more if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 this map is silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think next week will be the best week of winter for us. At the very worst.,.we get a few inches before changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think next week will be the best week of winter for us. At the very worst.,.we get a few inches before changeover Didn't you just say a few days ago that winter is over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Didn't you just say a few days ago that winter is over? Again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Didn't you just say a few days ago that winter is over? Yep but now it's unover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Didn't you just say a few days ago that winter is over? the threats this coming week are the last threats till the ones a few days after them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yep but now it's unover You set a stellar example at keeping your word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I dont see anything that keeps it from tracking further west. No high of any kind. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I dont see anything that keeps it from tracking further west. No high of any kind. Just saying. if the motherlode is really coming in with it then it's going to have trouble going too far west. i feel like this same discussion was being had last week tho if not with such an intense look on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I dont see anything that keeps it from tracking further west. No high of any kind. Just saying. There is a strong arctic high plunging across the US that is basically keeping this thing progressing east instead of cutting too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Dust Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yep but now it's unover I dated a chick like you in high school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 There is a strong arctic high plunging across the US that is basically keeping this thing progressing east instead of cutting too far west. Really? All I see is a moderate HP off the coast at 144? I'm sorry thats not a great setup for a coastal hugger. Maybe up the coastal plain. Or an Apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It looks pretty good right now. The lack of High isn't all that disconcerting considering the arctic air is fresh and the system is very wound up with a favorable track. Question is whether these outputs will sustain for much longer. Restating the obvious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Really? All I see is a moderate HP off the coast at 144? I'm sorry thats not a great setup for a coastal hugger. Maybe up the coastal plain. There is a strong high west of the storm that is pressing southeast. That is what is creating a nice pressure gradient for this storm to feed off of. True there is no High to the north of the storm. But the difference between a coastal hugger and a coastal plain storm at this range is as small a difference as 100 miles. Even coastal plain storms like March 1993 can pack quite a wallop depending on track and intensity. March 1993 tracked almost directly over dca if I recall correctly and DCA got 6 inches of snow/sleet/snow I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 March 1993 - no high to the north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayBreeze Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i am going to go with the too far east solution that puts more snow on the eastern shore versus dc/balt. take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i am going to go with the too far east solution that puts more snow on the eastern shore versus dc/balt. take it to the bank. They had their snow in December. It's about time that they get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 There is a strong high west of the storm that is pressing southeast. That is what is creating a nice pressure gradient for this storm to feed off of. True there is no High to the north of the storm. But the difference between a coastal hugger and a coastal plain storm at this range is as small a difference as 100 miles. Even coastal plain storms like March 1993 can pack quite a wallop depending on track and intensity. March 1993 tracked almost directly over dca if I recall correctly and DCA got 6 inches of snow/sleet/snow I believe. 1028 off the coast of Maine. Big difference from Maine to the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I hate to get into the middle, but this upcoming storm does not have a triple phase morphing in and won't be compared to March 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I hate to get into the middle, but this upcoming storm does not have a triple phase morphing in and won't be compared to March 1993. I agree. Was just pointing out the 500 features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I hate to get into the middle, but this upcoming storm does not have a triple phase morphing in and won't be compared to March 1993. Ji will be devastated......he wanted a NESIS 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I agree. Was just pointing out the 500 features. Yeah, I think it could be like January 1966, which Joe Bastardi has in mind, but we'll see... check the 66 ahd H500 if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, I think it could be like January 1966, which Joe Bastardi has in mind, but we'll see... check the 66 ahd H500 if you can. January 1966 in Baltimore........the temp was 12 at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 you can probably leave the sub title of the thread the same after the euro lol yep the euro sucks apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 yep the euro sucks apps runner For RIchmond and most points along I-95 on the Euro in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 For RIchmond and most points along I-95 on the Euro in the Mid-Atlantic. mos says DC area gets 3" of snow before changing to rain, about 5" in the NW areas like Leesburg to Frederick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 mos says DC area gets 3" of snow before changing to rain, about 5" in the NW areas like Leesburg to Frederick The low tracks west of DC on the Euro.. yea they start as snow... but mostly rain. It'll change next run anyway.. wonder what the western extend this low can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 hmm who to beleive gfs or euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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