MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At 54 hours, very heavy precip over the area. 850's and the freezing line is a tick north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That is better then ice blizzardo, so well take it. This is getting closer to roger smith land or those who know what I'm talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good amount of rain for NYC hours 48-54. .75"-1" The freezing line is so close to our north. Our friends to the north of us get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Given that NAM depiction its going to be hard to develop any sustained onshore flow, I don't see how anybody outside of LI and coastal NJ goes above 32 in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Where is the sfc freezing line at 54? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Where is the sfc freezing line at 54? Just to the north of NYC. Just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good amount of rain for NYC hours 48-54. .75"-1" Once again I must say that this is really bad news if it verifies. Flooding will be very severe if this happens and the freezing line follows suit. I honestly would rather have the ice accumulation than this. Flooding of this magnitude causes bigger problems in this region than a minor ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Seems like the cold trend continues...850 0C is scary close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's basically 33 and raining but the 850s jump to +3.5-4 at that point but very close to remaining all frozen and my guess would be is some of that .75 is not all liquid. Where is the sfc freezing line at 54? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If the NAM is even slighly too warm at the surface when the heavy precip rolls in, catastrophic icing. As it is, wouldn't want to see 1" of rain flash freeze once the temps bomb after the precip ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 33 degrees with a heavy snowpack will not really result in that much flooding, most of it will be absorbed. a layer of ice on top of the snowpack could complicate things however. Once again I must say that this is really bad news if it verifies. Flooding will be very severe if this happens and the freezing line follos suit. I honestly would rather have the ice accumulation than this. Flooding of this magnitude causes bigger problems in this region than a minor ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is going to be a now casting event - especially in NYC metro because they are right on the fence - and a degree or 2 or 3 here and there makes a big difference and is impossible to accurately predict until the event unfolds......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is there anyway to get the NAM and GFS with a map showing county lines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 through 60hrs......ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 33 degrees with a heavy snowpack will not really result in that much flooding, most of it will be absorbed. a layer of ice on top of the snowpack could complicate things however. I disagree. If the ice accumulation is less than an inch overall in this area, I have seen little to no issues over the years. However if we get an inch+ of rain on to this snowpack and river ice especially if it downpours at times we'd have serious problems all across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not on the maps. i guess you are accessing soundings. Wonder why the difference---bad reso. on the maps? That's the 6Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On the text soundings, NYC gets 0.65 QPF of frozen precip before the temperature rises to 33 degreees. That is the highest that it gets. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If the NAM has any clue, there's a better chance Mary Poppins jumps out of the sky then it plain raining significantly in NYC. Those soundings look like a scenario that would unfold as sleet to me and plenty of it... Warms up to above freezing at 54... Seen that before, and the cold almost always hangs around longer than advertised at the lower levels. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
armentoma Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not on the maps. i guess you are accessing soundings. Wonder why the difference---bad reso. on the maps? I think that map is from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Even JFK gets 0.58 QPF of frozen precip with temps in the mid 20's before it warms up to the mid 30'.s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FYI, LGA is still below freezing at 51... the worst the wind direction becomes at NYC is ENE... call me skeptical on a change to plain rain in the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That's the 6Z NAM That is embarassing. Not only did I post 6z maps, but they were the 6z GFS! Need more coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 3 hour soundings out. LGA goes above freezing at hour 51, 32.2 degrees. And by then .93" of QPF has already fallen. NAM is a big time ice storm for LGA: http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_Klga.txt plymouth soundings got a -.2 at 51... but we're splitting hairs here... Idk the resolution of hte plymouth soundings... going to pull up the arl though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Although NYC will not pick up a significant snowfall this time around, the accumulation should help push it toward 60" or the season. NYC's 56.1" at the end of January was the highest figure to that point in the season. FWIW, the highest snowfall figures through February (prior to 2010-11) were: 1. 61.7", 1995-96 2. 59.9", 1872-73 3. 58.5", 1947-48 4. 53.5", 1960-61 5. 52.3", 1922-23 NYC will start February in the #4 spot. If the month unfolds as I believe it will, 2010-11 should be in the top spot at the end of February. The big question that arises then is whether the rest of the season will have very little snowfall, as happened in 1872-73 or continued above normal snowfall as occurred in 1995-96. A lot will depend on whether the blocking redevelops in time for March and then holds through at least a meaningful portion of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FYI, the NAM run on 12km at 48 hrs (its latest hour on that resolution) is 0.7 degrees cooler than the 40km.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 According to twisterdata, my location on LI, surface temp 0C at 54 hrs. above 0C at 57 hrs. and back to 0C at 60 hrs...Don't want to take up a lot of room posting all those maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Although NYC will not pick up a significant snowfall this time around, the accumulation should help push it toward 60" or the season. NYC's 56.1" at the end of January was the highest figure to that point in the season. FWIW, the highest snowfall figures through February (prior to 2010-11) were: 1. 61.7", 1995-96 2. 59.9", 1872-73 3. 58.5", 1947-48 4. 53.5", 1960-61 5. 52.3", 1922-23 NYC will start February in the #4 spot. If the month unfolds as I believe it will, 2010-11 should be in the top spot at the end of February. The big question that arises then is whether the rest of the season will have very little snowfall, as happened in 1872-73 or continued above normal snowfall as occurred in 1995-96. A lot will depend on whether the blocking redevelops in time for March and then holds through at least a meaningful portion of the month. I agree with you Don...I also think March might have a grand finally...I thought that last year and was wrong...The blocking was gone in early March last year and returned to late to matter...This year it looks like the first part of February has a +ao but if it goes negative at the end of the month March will see another snowstorm... This is the first time January and February will have at least 12" of snow depth on the 1st...1947-48 came close but Feb. 1st had only 8-9"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM still looks good for a few inches of snow and sleet with the initial waa precipitation. We'll know more about the main event in a few minutes, but man will it be hard to keep the thermal profile cold for frozen precipitation with a surface low driving into Illinois. By the way, good morning dudes. Our nonstop winter of tracking snow continues. Surface low "driving into Illinois"? I would be reluctant to say it that way when it ends up off the NJ coast. I it might we wise to focus on the persistent cold air source and where this ends up rather than where it is trying unnsuccessfully to go. There is very little here indicating plain rain at any time during this event and if we got a coastal cranking sooner, there is an outside possibility (less outside than it was earlier) that this could end up mostly heavy snow and sleet. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If I remember correctly, NYC was supposed to change to rain in the Feb 14,2007 storm. Temps stayed in the low 20's and it never changed to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM through 66hrs. Sleet fest over northern Jersey. Southern NY biggest snow in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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