Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yup, wide swath of probably .2 qpf in IL/MN/IN/S.MI between hr 69 and 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 at 78 it appears things are starting to cool down and the freeze line is moving south, winds are starting to come out of the ENE as the surface low breaks out. looks like it takes the Surface low way south by 81 in ESE Texas? cold air is funneling in at all levels...faster closer to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM breaking out serious WAA snows already. love when you can see the kink in the isobars along the 850mb warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How's it looking phasing wise? Would this thing head NE or would it be like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 With the CAA and the E/NE flow, someone is absolutely going to get crippled by a historic ice storm. Text book set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yup, wide swath of probably .2 qpf in IL/MN/IN/S.MI between hr 69 and 84. Another consistency among the models. At least that overrunning precip will begin well in advance of the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM doesn't look like it isn't going to retrograde the northern piece as much as with the 18z run. If the whole trough shifts east intact, it *could* be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow, 1056MB H coming into MT at 78hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 love when you can see the kink in the isobars along the 850mb warm front. yeah the initial WAA snows area looking better and better check the omega explosion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM doesn't look like it isn't going to retrograde the northern piece as much as with the 18z run. If the whole trough shifts east intact, it *could* be huge. My god the 500mb energy vort looks beautiful. That northern piece of bulking in pretty nicely with the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 good amount of WAA snow going at 78hr with a tight temp gradient at 850mb across IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp0_084.shtml We are gonna need FEMA when this is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM seems a lot more ambitious with the overrunning ahead of the main storm. Don't recall QPF like that on any of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah the initial WAA snows area looking better and better check the omega explosion about to go boom in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 at 78 it appears things are starting to cool down and the freeze line is moving south, winds are starting to come out of the ENE as the surface low breaks out. looks like it takes the Surface low way south by 81 in ESE Texas? cold air is funneling in at all levels...faster closer to the surface. Yeah and okie makes a good point that there could be some ice but I think this thing will eject out of Texas southwest of Shreveport, LA so I think OK will be cold enough for snow for precip type. I haven't looked at any soundings yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Look at this front at 925 MB..... 850 MB's are still running warm, looks icy along I-44 in OK up into my area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the nam extrapolated would be a crippling ice storm for a large large area. and a major snow storm north of that. STL would get flat out destroyed by ice, sleet and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like NAM is trying to send a nice wave before the main one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow, 1056MB H coming into MT at 78hrs Wow, 8 mb stronger than 12z. Positioning is similar to 12z though, keeping the orientation of the baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah and okie makes a good point that there could be some ice but I think this thing will eject out of Texas southwest of Shreveport, LA so I think OK will be cold enough for frozen precip. I haven't looked at any soundings yet. Sound like a track upwards to the Indy/Ohio border or so...then probably junted more east pending how the energy pans out. From south central OK to SPG, STL, INDY would be a major ICE storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The low level baroclinic zone with this storm is outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looking at 500mb vort I am worried this might end up furthur NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM seems a lot more ambitious with the overrunning ahead of the main storm. Don't recall QPF like that on any of the other models. That band is ahead of the main system? Phew Anyway, baroclinic zone is VERY strong on this run... would not be surprised at all to see it bomb out an SLP and cut NNE...or at the very least produce a huge deformation zone to the NW of the mod-heavy precip (ice) band that you say is ahead of the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 this thing is already looking gorgeous...can't wait for the 12z run. going to ride up the baroclinic zone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 TS12, where do you think this would go? I was thinking somewhere around E. Indiana or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 this thing is already looking gorgeous...can't wait for the 12z run. going to ride up the baroclinic zone.. yeah it mabe nice on 12z but by 12z Sunday this thing might have rain/snow near Chicago. This thing looks like its trying to carve out a western trough here and send up a big fat SE ridge up into Grand Rapids in 5-to 6 runs when it explodes and buckles up and rapidly deepens as it passes AR/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sound like a track upwards to the Indy/Ohio border or so...then probably junted more east pending how the energy pans out. From south central OK to SPG, STL, INDY would be a major ICE storm. My "gut" says something like a Shreveport, LA to Cinci to Erie line....either there or a SE OK to Evansville to Toledo line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The low level baroclinic zone with this storm is outrageous. It is absolutely insane, probably still an understatement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 this thing is already looking gorgeous...can't wait for the 12z run. going to ride up the baroclinic zone.. It's a truley intense run in terms of potential. We throw around epic storm comparisons a lot, but to end up on the right side of something like this really will be one for the ages. This one is going to break some hearts along the way no doubt. The potential of long duration WAA snows followed by an intense low with gulf connection riding a tight baro zone is so tantilizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.