Moneyman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 BTW, I think someone in the mid atlantic board said the 12z ukie takes a low up to Chicago or something like that. I'm not even sure if it is out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's not the same field of play at all and i'm really not that interested in anything beyond 60 hrs right now. We agree there. Can't really trust or discount any solution at this point.. Could be a lakes cutter, and apps runner or another pos that lags a riece back that transfers to the coast for another MECS.. It's all on the table still.. Wrt this winter.. Id say mecs has the best odds right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Others on this board like teleconnections a lot more than i do, at this point i don't see the need to dwell on them when its clear who the major players are and what happens if and when they interact. they're good to diagnose a pattern or forecast for an extended period but when it comes down to phasing, and cyclogenesis for a given storm they don't really contribute. They are a nice thing to look at and just another tool in the tool box but they don't make or break a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Not sure of the precip types but the color maps looks great for all of michigan to chicago to illinois. Definately a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Looks like a very good hit for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Like Alek and Baro said before, we'll know how this will play out in the next 24 hours which is going to be really nice. NAM/GEM would have a cutter, while the GFS is suppressed. It's not gonna be like other storms where we are going to have to wait until a few days before the system arrives before we have a general idea on where this is going to go. We'll know if we have something to track, not where. IF we get the phase, then it become low over ORD or CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Not sure of the precip types but the color maps looks great for all of michigan to chicago to illinois. Definately a monster 120. Time to get back to work. have a good one y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12Z ggem 132/144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12Z ukie 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 UKIE/GEM in close agreement? Now, it's EURO time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12Z ukie 144 holy crap.... :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 GGEM illustrates just how explosive (warm) this can get with an agressive early phase allowing the heights out east to crank. And yes, it's nice to see the Ukie get back to basics, seems like it was showing bombs all the time a couple years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 they're good to diagnose a pattern or forecast for an extended period but when it comes down to phasing, and cyclogenesis for a given storm they don't really contribute. They are a nice thing to look at and just another tool in the tool box but they don't make or break a storm. Thanks, that's kind of how i feel, but you put it much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 holy crap.... :wub: Had to say it, eye of a hurricane over our house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Ukmet looks a bit east, that is good for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12Z ukie 144 Is that over Cleveland?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 ukmet would probably be a little breezy on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 UKMET is a track from Arklatex to W TN, to Clevelandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks like it's in NW Ohio or extreme SE MI. Hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 holy crap.... :wub: We've got a couple monster solutions on the field right now. Hands down the most explosive potential of the season right now. I'll be watching the Pac NW closely to see how things unfold over the next 12-24. Step 1: Get a phase and avoid gulf suppression Step 2: Avoid a congrats Madison rain scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks like it's in NW Ohio or extreme SE MI. Hard to tell. Yeah it looks like it would pass between Toledo and Sandusky. Probably crushing most of IN/IL/W. MI. Over here in Eastern MI probably mix bag with a ton of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 UKMET is a track from Arklatex to W TN, to Clevelandish. That UKMET image had me think 1978... LOL....I am not sure what that track was.... That kind of track would be pretty good over here in western Ohio. What will the King do? Man oh man I say a low track near Indianapolis which means rain here. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 UKMET is a track from Arklatex to W TN, to Clevelandish. Sounds like the track that gives STL a Foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks like it's in NW Ohio or extreme SE MI. Hard to tell. ukie would be a wild storm for us even though it wouldn't be all snow. As soon as that low got to that position at 144 your talking massive winds and a rapid changeover. Of course if its not that strong then its more of a typical rain to snowshower event. one thing for sure....ukie loves bombing over cleveland, haven't seen it do it in awhile though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Is that over Cleveland?? looks like it...meteocentre will have better sfc maps in about half hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 That UKMET image had me think 1978... LOL....I am not sure what that track was.... That kind of track would be pretty good over here in western Ohio. What will the King do? Man oh man I say a low track near Indianapolis which means rain here. We'll see... that was more of a track from straight out of the south to between cmh and zanesville right up to cle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 That UKMET image had me think 1978... LOL....I am not sure what that track was.... That kind of track would be pretty good over here in western Ohio. What will the King do? Man oh man I say a low track near Indianapolis which means rain here. We'll see... im sticking with something similar to what it showed last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 im sticking with something similar to what it showed last night. bomb over arkansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'm speechless at the 12z UKIE. Considering the other 12z runs so far, I would not at all be surprised to see the Euro go back to the more phased solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'm speechless at the 12z UKIE. Considering the other 12z runs so far, I would not at all be surprised to see the Euro go back to the more phased solution. i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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