NYC/Tri-State Area OBS and Disco

[FPizz]

I got down to 15.1 last night. I was surprised it got that low since I saw the temp start to rise a bit around 1030.

[patrick05]

Normally moderate Islip down to just 15 F; given their short climate record I'd think that would be close to a record low for the date...

KISP got down to 13F this morning (according to NWS)...

[SnoSki14]

Latest gfs says What cold shot? Each run has been warmer and warmer, looks like mid 50s for Sunday, highs may actually go up to freezing for Monday-Wednesday when originally there were going to be in the low 20s. That pattern for next week looks almost identical to the pattern we were in a week ago with a big warm up on Dec 1 to blocking and colder weather afterward. The only difference may be the orientation of the block, it looks more west based than last week but I don't know if that will change things.

It seems like our pattern has already locked itself in for the past 2 weeks now.

[Kaner587]

Latest gfs says What cold shot? Each run has been warmer and warmer, looks like mid 50s for Sunday, highs may actually go up to freezing for Monday-Wednesday when originally there were going to be in the low 20s. That pattern for next week looks almost identical to the pattern we were in a week ago with a big warm up on Dec 1 to blocking and colder weather afterward. The only difference may be the orientation of the block, it looks more west based than last week but I don't know if that will change things.

It seems like our pattern has already locked itself in for the past 2 weeks now.

In case your too dense to realize this, highs around freezing with lows around 20 its about 10-12 degrees below normal.

[Allsnow]

Latest gfs says What cold shot? Each run has been warmer and warmer, looks like mid 50s for Sunday, highs may actually go up to freezing for Monday-Wednesday when originally there were going to be in the low 20s. That pattern for next week looks almost identical to the pattern we were in a week ago with a big warm up on Dec 1 to blocking and colder weather afterward. The only difference may be the orientation of the block, it looks more west based than last week but I don't know if that will change things.

It seems like our pattern has already locked itself in for the past 2 weeks now.

This is just a horrible post.....it was always suppose to get warm on sunday with a storm cutting to our west.....looks below 32 to me from tue-sunday......with a storm threat around day 7

[SnoSki14]

In case your too dense to realize this, highs around freezing with lows around 20 its about 10-12 degrees below normal.

Compared to what was originally shown, it's going to be a lot warmer than said it would be a few days ago. I know it's still below normal but it's nowhere near as impressive as originally forecast but rather similar to what we've already experienced.

[earthlight]

Latest gfs says What cold shot?

I don't get it

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f108.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f180.gif

[SnoSki14]

This is just a horrible post.....it was always suppose to get warm on sunday with a storm cutting to our west.....looks below 32 to me from tue-sunday......with a storm threat around day 7

It's a very realistic post, there's definitely more warming forecast before and after the storm than even 2 days ago. The gfs didn't show us getting to 50+ 2 days ago, and if you just compare the last four runs to each other, note that the surface temps for Monday through Wednesday have risen to near 32 for the city.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_078l.gif This is for Monday, highs clearly above 32.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_090l.gif This is for Monday from the 0z gfs run, highs definitely below 32.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_102l.gif This is the current gfs run for Tuesday's highs, still below 32 but getting close.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_114l.gif This is the 0z gfs run for Tuesday afternoon, high well below 32, probably mid 20s.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_126l.gif This is the current gfs run for Wednesday afternoon, highs above 32 for the coast of NJ, just below for NYC.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_138l.gif This was the 0z gfs run for Wednesday afternoon, highs below 32 for everyone.

[nynjpaweather]

It's a very realistic post, there's definitely more warming forecast before and after the storm than even 2 days ago. The gfs didn't show us getting to 50+ 2 days ago, and if you just compare the last four runs to each other, note that the surface temps for Monday through Wednesday have risen to near 32 for the city.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_078l.gif This is for Monday, highs clearly above 32.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_090l.gif This is for Monday from the 0z gfs run, highs definitely below 32.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_102l.gif This is the current gfs run for Tuesday's highs, still below 32 but getting close.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_114l.gif This is the 0z gfs run for Tuesday afternoon, high well below 32, probably mid 20s.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_126l.gif This is the current gfs run for Wednesday afternoon, highs above 32 for the coast of NJ, just below for NYC.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_138l.gif This was the 0z gfs run for Wednesday afternoon, highs below 32 for everyone.

You need to get a grip. It's a 10 day forecast, which has not exactly been all that accurate. By the way, we can flip it the other way. Temperatures are stuck in the mid 30's when guidance 2 or 3 days ago were forecasted in the 40's.

Looks like we got another JI.

[A-L-E-X]

First temp in the teens this morning!  (18.7)

[SnoSki14]

You need to get a grip. It's a 10 day forecast, which has not exactly been all that accurate. By the way, we can flip it the other way. Temperatures are stuck in the mid 30's when guidance 2 or 3 days ago were forecasted in the 40's.

Looks like we got another JI.

You mean it's a 5 day forecast. I'm just trying to make a point that the cold shot will be much warmer than originally forecast, that's the point. Will it still be cold, yes, will it still be below normal, yes, will it be unprecedented and brutal, no.

[nynjpaweather]

You mean it's a 5 day forecast. I'm just trying to make a point that the cold shot will be much warmer than originally forecast, that's the point. Will it still be cold, yes, will it still be below normal, yes, will it be unprecedented and brutal, no.

You aren't making a point. You are throwing up model runs.

Look, this is what you need to do to have any credibility with this argument. Give me a physical reason why you think next week will not be VERY cold. What physically do you think will cause temperatures to not be cold next week. All you did was show that the GFS is glitchy, not exactly a monumental statement.

You remind me of this client I have. Over 70 inches of snow and he said it was a snowless year.

[Brian5671]

You mean it's a 5 day forecast. I'm just trying to make a point that the cold shot will be much warmer than originally forecast, that's the point. Will it still be cold, yes, will it still be below normal, yes, will it be unprecedented and brutal, no.

Guess that settles it, winter is canceled.

[RutgersWx92]

RU wx station is now updating and says the low was 13 here last night. Quite impressive, 14 degrees below average.

[Allsnow]

Guess that settles it, winter is canceled.

amy how goes it?

[Brian5671]

amy how goes it?

Not bad despite the lack of snow.

-

up to 28 here now with cloudy skies

[Brian5671]

RU wx station is now updating and says the low was 13 here last night. Quite impressive, 14 degrees below average.

Quite cold last night-I was a bit surprised to wake up to 9 degrees here this AM.

[Allsnow]

Quite cold last night-I was a bit surprised to wake up to 9 degrees here this AM.

one of the coldest nights i can remember for this early in december.

[Allsnow]

You aren't making a point. You are throwing up model runs.

Look, this is what you need to do to have any credibility with this argument. Give me a physical reason why you think next week will not be VERY cold. What physically do you think will cause temperatures to not be cold next week. All you did was show that the GFS is glitchy, not exactly a monumental statement.

You remind me of this client I have. Over 70 inches of snow and he said it was a snowless year.

He is cbw from eastern....got banned there

[SnoSki14]

You aren't making a point. You are throwing up model runs.

Look, this is what you need to do to have any credibility with this argument. Give me a physical reason why you think next week will not be VERY cold. What physically do you think will cause temperatures to not be cold next week. All you did was show that the GFS is glitchy, not exactly a monumental statement.

You remind me of this client I have. Over 70 inches of snow and he said it was a snowless year.

It will still be cold, the presence of low pressure near our area due to the massive block forming will create windy and cloudy conditions that will not allow lows to drop significantly (we see this over the past week where highs were 32-38 degrees and lows only got down into the upper 20s). They will certainly not be lower than they were early this morning unless something changes. What was once a brutal arctic air mass for us has been moderated, there is a lack of snow cover to cause colder weather.

The presence of the ULL is also keeping the cold high pressure further west and making it weaker, therefore moderating our highs as well. This would be a good pattern for a snowstorm had the Pacific been cooperative.

[earthlight]

It will still be cold, the presence of low pressure near our area due to the massive block forming will create windy and cloudy conditions that will not allow lows to drop significantly (we see this over the past week where highs were 32-38 degrees and lows only got down into the upper 20s). They will certainly not be lower than they were early this morning unless something changes. What was once a brutal arctic air mass for us has been moderated, there is a lack of snow cover to cause colder weather.

Just wanted to clarify, are you trying to say that it won't be "as far" below normal because of the clouds? Not trying to have an obnoxious tone, I am asking seriously.

If that is the case, that's pretty silly.

[nzucker]

It will still be cold, the presence of low pressure near our area due to the massive block forming will create windy and cloudy conditions that will not allow lows to drop significantly (we see this over the past week where highs were 32-38 degrees and lows only got down into the upper 20s). They will certainly not be lower than they were early this morning unless something changes. What was once a brutal arctic air mass for us has been moderated, there is a lack of snow cover to cause colder weather.

The presence of the ULL is also keeping the cold high pressure further west and making it weaker, therefore moderating our highs as well. This would be a good pattern for a snowstorm had the Pacific been cooperative.

We'll probably get one day that's like 25/15 in KNYC and a few days of 30/20 or so, all big departures.

[A-L-E-X]

We'll probably get one day that's like 25/15 in KNYC and a few days of 30/20 or so, all big departures.

You know we talked awhile back about it being a few years since we got a bowling ball system that crossed the country and delivered widespread snow from coast to coast.  We used to have one of those every year.... who knows, maybe with the strong - nao block one of these storms wont be able to cut and we'll get one of those again.

[ag3]

Why are people even bothering? LOL.

Anytime NYC struggles to reach 32 for a high temp in early December, its a REMARKABLE thing and very below normal.

[SnoSki14]

Just wanted to clarify, are you trying to say that it won't be "as far" below normal because of the clouds? Not trying to have an obnoxious tone, I am asking seriously.

If that is the case, that's pretty silly.

The low temperatures won't be all that low. I doubt the city see's teens next week anymore. Obviously cloud cover and strong surface winds will not allow for ideal radiating conditions therefore the lows will be warmer. There's nothing silly about it. I mean seriously LGA had highs 36-38 and the lows still couldn't get down to freezing. I had highs in the mid 30s, but my lows only ranged from 28-30 except the last 2 nights where we see ideal radiating conditions. This is also why we didn't generate significant departures despite the colder weather until the past two days.

After the big warm up on December 1, it took me nearly 6 days to get negative departures.

[ag3]

The low temperatures won't be all that low. I doubt the city see's teens next week anymore. Obviously cloud cover and strong surface winds will not allow for ideal radiating conditions therefore the lows will be warmer. There's nothing silly about it. I mean seriously LGA had highs 36-38 and the lows still couldn't get down to freezing. I had highs in the mid 30s, but my lows only ranged from 28-30 except the last 2 nights where we see ideal radiating conditions. This is also why we didn't generate significant departures despite the colder weather until the past two days.

After the big warm up on December 1, it took me nearly 6 days to get negative departures.

LGA had 20's the past 2 nights. LGA gets colder on windier days then radiating days.

[nynjpaweather]

We'll probably get one day that's like 25/15 in KNYC and a few days of 30/20 or so, all big departures.

See, all of this surrounds around the error of taking a model word for word several days out with the boundary layer. Will it be 15 or 20 for a low five days from now? No idea, that's why forecasters typically say mid to upper 10's. You get one area of clearing and BAM you are shot. OR, like today you get virga and overcast skies and instead it's 36 rather than 45.

The point is that you can't take these models to heart with boundary layer considerations. The 850 MB temperatures look plenty cold enough and the pattern overall is cold. This whole argument is silly.

[nynjpaweather]

Why are people even bothering? LOL.

Anytime NYC struggles to reach 32 for a high temp in early December, its a REMARKABLE thing and very below normal.

I admit it. I was bored and I'm waiting for my hamburger to finish, so I was like what the heck, let me see if I can apply some reason to this guy.

[Mr Torchey]

The low temperatures won't be all that low. I doubt the city see's teens next week anymore. Obviously cloud cover and strong surface winds will not allow for ideal radiating conditions therefore the lows will be warmer. There's nothing silly about it. I mean seriously LGA had highs 36-38 and the lows still couldn't get down to freezing. I had highs in the mid 30s, but my lows only ranged from 28-30 except the last 2 nights where we see ideal radiating conditions. This is also why we didn't generate significant departures despite the colder weather until the past two days.

After the big warm up on December 1, it took me nearly 6 days to get negative departures.

MOS was way to warm with this last outbreak and will be again next week, I would think you could cut those numbers by 2-4 degrees especially during the day.

[A-L-E-X]

I think we could easily see highs in the mid 20s next Tuesday with lows in the mid 10s.