NYC/Tri-State Area OBS and Disco

[Snowlover11]

32.2 here

[Dark Energy]

the precip shield aint hallin ass i can say that. at noon it was around NC, now 10 hrs later, it is just coming into S NJ. if temps cont to rise ovn, then by the time the precip moves in, we may not see much, save the areas well N.

[Analog96]

the precip shield aint hallin ass i can say that. at noon it was around NC, now 10 hrs later, it is just coming into S NJ. if temps cont to rise ovn, then by the time the precip moves in, we may not see much, save the areas well N.

That's what I was thinking. Temperature began rising like crazy here once the clouds increased.

[Dark Energy]

What a completely blown forecast for early next week, we were supposed to see highs in the low 20s for three days and lows in the lower teens if not single digits, now we will be able freezing for pretty much every day except Tuesday and lows will not even enter the teens. Not to mention highs on the warmest day, Sunday were only supposed to get into the mid 40s, now it's upper 50s. The models missed the boat big time with this event.

im not sure what the nws was lookin at to tell you the truth. below is my forecast from WED for NYC for the blog that earthlight and i have. nycmetrowx.

For the life of me, i have no idea why mid 40s were forecast for anywhere south or east of the city for that time.

Zone Area: New York, New York

Forecast Issued: December 8, 2010 at 326am

Forecast Valid Through: December 9, 2010 at 12:00pm

*Note: If the forecast has not been updated by the "valid through" date, please consider the below forecast invalid.

Today: Mostly sunny early, then becoming mostly cloudy. Blustery. High: 34. NW winds 15-25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with flurries possible. Low near 25. WNW winds 15-20 mph early, diminishing to around 10 mph after evening.

Thursday: Partly sunny with a chance of flurries, then clearing in the afternoon. Blustery. High near 32. NW winds 15-20 mph.

Thursday Night: Clear in the evening, then turning cloudy. Low near 26. NW winds becoming light.

Friday: Cloudy with flurries possible. High near 38. S winds 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, then increasing afternoon clouds. Low near 32. High near 46.

Sunday: Cloudy and mild. Rain likely, possibly starting as a wintery mix well north and west of NYC. Low near 43. High near 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[hudsonvalley21]

That's what I was thinking. Temperature began rising like crazy here once the clouds increased.

There might be some valley areas where it might take time to push the cold air out. But with the precip taking it's time, It won't make much of a difference.

[Kaner587]

What a completely blown forecast for early next week, we were supposed to see highs in the low 20s for three days and lows in the lower teens if not single digits, now we will be able freezing for pretty much every day except Tuesday and lows will not even enter the teens. Not to mention highs on the warmest day, Sunday were only supposed to get into the mid 40s, now it's upper 50s. The models missed the boat big time with this event.

I dont think temps were ever supposed to be in the low 20's for highs for 3 days. Lows in the teens yes. You have a habit of proclaiming victories before these things actually happen. In this case its the models messing up. We'll see what happens next week but you if you want anyone to listen to you you NEED to stop exaggerating. Upper 50's is not the forecast for NYC metro area...i see 54 as a FORECASTED high for tomorrow, so mid 50's and sometimes temps are overdone in a situation like this so we'll see how warm we actually get tomorrow. In other news it looks like we may get a dry/lighter precip period just in time for the jets game

[Dark Energy]

I dont think temps were ever supposed to be in the low 20's for highs for 3 days. Lows in the teens yes. You have a habit of proclaiming victories before these things actually happen. In this case its the models messing up. We'll see what happens next week but you if you want anyone to listen to you you NEED to stop exaggerating. Upper 50's is not the forecast for NYC metro area...i see 54 as a FORECASTED high for tomorrow, so mid 50's and sometimes temps are overdone in a situation like this so we'll see how warm we actually get tomorrow. In other news it looks like we may get a dry/lighter precip period just in time for the jets game

if that warm front makes it thru, mid 50s easy. usually it gets hung up tho and NW zones stay colder but for S NJ, the city and LI, they should def be the warmest, unless the warm sector gets piched off, but that is not forecast at this time.

[Analog96]

if that warm front makes it thru, mid 50s easy. usually it gets hung up tho and NW zones stay colder but for S NJ, the city and LI, they should def be the warmest, unless the warm sector gets piched off, but that is not forecast at this time.

Areas in the dry slot will be easier to warm up. Depends on where that sets up, too.

[Dark Energy]

u know, i thought about this but didnt play it up. there is really great forcing coming in tomorrow ahead of the upper trof. the 00z nam actually looks like it wants to form a fine line squall line maybe over the city and points east. LI for sure. will be interesting to see how that unfolds.

[HSNN4]

Harrison, NJ - Hudson County @ 11PM is 40F Degrees and Overcast Skies, wet bulb is 35F Degrees.

[Analog96]

u know, i thought about this but didnt play it up. there is really great forcing coming in tomorrow ahead of the upper trof. the 00z nam actually looks like it wants to form a fine line squall line maybe over the city and points east. LI for sure. will be interesting to see how that unfolds.

I think everyone will at least get lightning.

[IsentropicLift]

If you take a look at mesoanalysis at the SPC site under the critical thicknesses page you can clearly see the warm air rushing NE while at the same time the 0 degree line at the surface is moving south and is around central northern NJ. If that can get a little further south or hold for a few more hours we will definitly get some at least freezing drizzle.

[Analog96]

If you take a look at mesoanalysis at the SPC site under the critical thicknesses page you can clearly see the warm air rushing NE while at the same time the 0 degree line at the surface is moving south and is around central northern NJ. If that can get a little further south or hold for a few more hours we will definitly get some at least freezing drizzle.

It isn't going to move South any more.

[SnoSki14]

Things are gradually warming tonight, 41F right now.

[Dark Energy]

ksmq went from 29F to 36F in 2 hrs...and they radiate well usually. WAA coming strong.

[Analog96]

ksmq went from 29F to 36F in 2 hrs...and they radiate well usually. WAA coming strong.

That's not all WAA. The clouds thickened. I rose 4 degrees and I usually don't radiate too well.

[hudsonvalley21]

ksmq went from 29F to 36F in 2 hrs...and they radiate well usually. WAA coming strong.

Temp up .6 deg. in the last hour IMBY. Wind has east component. Skies are still clear. 27.6

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1100 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

NYZ052-065-067-120500-

HUDSON VALLEY

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

NEWBURGH CLEAR 32 27 80 E9 30.16 WCI 24

MONTGOMERY CLEAR 23 19 85 CALM 30.14F FOG

POUGHKEEPSIE CLEAR 25 22 88 CALM 30.17F

ALBANY PTCLDY 24 20 84 CALM 30.18F

[Analog96]

Temp up .6 deg. in the last hour. Wind has east component. Skies are still clear. 27.6

I don't think a true East wind would matter up where you are, unless it is SE.

[Dark Energy]

That's not all WAA. The clouds thickened. I rose 4 degrees and I usually don't radiate too well.

thicknesses are increasing. its def some WAA, but yea the clouds are also playing part.

Edit. as dr. zois would say, it is warm thickness advection.

[SnoSki14]

We're looking to get a pretty decent rain event (over an inch), the rain is already near our doorstep. 42F.

[Analog96]

thicknesses are increasing. its def some WAA, but yea the clouds are also playing part.

Edit. as dr. zois would say, it is warm thickness advection.

Lol! I used to love how we would ask Zois if there was snow coming, and he would say that the air was "sufficiently refigerated".

[Dark Energy]

Lol! I used to love how we would ask Zois if there was snow coming, and he would say that the air was "sufficiently refigerated".

i dont recall that saying. But it's been years now. some things i remember more than others.

[Analog96]

i dont recall that saying. But it's been years now. some things i remember more than others.

He would say that as he was looking at NGM DIFAX charts.

[Dark Energy]

He would say that as he was looking at NGM DIFAX charts.

difax. ngm.

[Analog96]

difax. ngm.

Hanging maps!

[Sock Puppet]

42 and drizzling. It always hurts no matter how much it's been expected

[BlueSkiesFading]

35.3 with light rain. So close, yet so far.

[rgwp96]

35.3 with light rain. So close, yet so far.

dont worry its only a little ice, temp 31.6 and some light freezing rain

[Edge Weather]

Light freezing rain an hour ago, causing some pretty decent icing on the roads in spots, but warmed up above freezing now, so should be in the clear very soon.

[Guest Patrick]

All I can say is WOW at the dynamics of our current storm. Perhaps MBY missed this in the last few storms, but the wind/rain combo is the hardest I have seen since 1999.