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Found 134 results

  1. January Discussion thread, figured it was time to start one given how close we are to the new year.
  2. Less than a week out and all indicies show both Carolinas getting something... So let's bring this one all the way home
  3. Figured with this within 72 hours of laying down some Mississippi snow love we may as well have a separate thread for it. Virtually all modeling is now hitting parts of Mississippi with a good bit of snow that washes out as it heads NE into Alabama and Tennessee. Several models who are performing well this winter have some N Miss and West Tennessee love to share. The latest RGEM was very bullish with the entire western half of the state seeing snow at 84 with a good bit down in N Miss and West Tennessee. GFS is so progressive this year it can't be relied upon in the d2-7ish range. Ironically it actually nailed the Christmas event at D9/10 then lost it to the East until the last minute. So ride a Canadian/Euro blend and hope for victory! Good luck to the western valley with this one!
  4. Good Wednesday morning all, Jan 6. Unless something highly unusual occurs, I've made my last update for this topic. This was a busted January 2 outlook that faded with model cycles only 24 hours after issuance, beginning around the 00z/3 cycle., blocked to our south and southeast. Good Tuesday morning Jan 5: Update dropped the 8th from the topic, and dropped the tag of ice. The preponderance of 00z/06z January 5 2021 guidance favors a miss for this developing mid Atlantic coast nor'easter and so my Jan 2 confidence is probably wrongly over confident for an 7-8 day outlook. However, we're still at 96 hours (4 days) with somewhat delicate northern-southern stream trough interactions in the northeast USA Friday and Saturday. Some of the guidance has minor amounts of precipitation skimming the NJ coast/e LI with ensembles interestingly showing a little more extensive minor qpf coverage for southern New England. That New England coverage may be due to the eventual development of an upper level low over central or southern New England on Saturday (light wind), and a possibility for a period of easterly flow aloft , caused by the flow interactions of the modeled offshore storm and the northern stream short wave in New England. So it would not surprise to see some light or very light snow on the coasts into CT/MA but for now--- please go with your take on the event. I can't push this occurrence in the face of all the recent 3 days of modeling. We're still 96 hours in advance of the storms passage and once in a while models make significant adjustments in somewhat uncertain northern -southern stream interactions. -- Happy New Year and welcome to what will probably be the 3rd wintry event of January 2021! Just too early to detail but ensembles have something. The current Aleutians east central PAC short wave is modeled to dive southeastward into the nations mid section and by Next Friday the 8th turn northeastward into the northeast USA. This could be snow to ice to rain, but something wintry is coming (my guestimate is a 70 to 80% likelihood). Is there enough cold air and confluence in the right area of northern New England to allow-keep it wintry? -NAO Block impact? Will update these tags and potential impacts when confidence increases. Just wanted to get this thread started for any comments/model considerations etc as we move forward.
  5. January 2, 2021 605AM Update: Am probably not commenting for our NYC forum on anything beyond 9AM January 4, which is about the still possible extension for eastern New England. That part of our oncoming light to moderate Nor'Easter snow event for the entire I84 corridor, will not happen for us. The remainder of the NY Day comments below seem reasonable. My anticipation is a widespread plowable 2-6" elevation dependent snow event from I95 northward through the I84 corridor and probably I90 eastern NYS and northern NJ/ne PA eastward through southern New England. I-84 valleys will manage this better because of marginal melting temps (32-34F) and the southeast edge near I95 will also be manageable, in part because a little rain/freezing rain/sleet is possible there. as well as the daytime temps near 33F. So, it's a mixed bag but the I84 corridor should enjoy this, with the primary event mainly Noon Sunday-6AM Monday. This storm will probably affect some of the return home holiday travel and also may force some Monday morning 2 hr cleanup delays, especially CT-MA portion where it still may be snowing a bit. NYC-LI should see a touch of snow/sleet but whether it measures or not and where, i don't know. My guess is eastern LI may do a little better and thats where there will probably be some wind gusts to 35 MPH but NYC might also see less than an inch?? There will be 1 or 2 brief periods of moderate snow with this event, but I'm not thinking of more than 10 to 1 snow ratios, possibly only 7 or 8 to 1 near I95. Will begin the OBS/NOWcast thread later tonight. Earliest part of snow/sleet/very brief ice arrival is around 8A-10AM Sunday for our NJ eastern PA membership. I don't anticipate adding any further potentially helpful information until maybe this evening. Noting the WPC ensembles for more than 2" are not very enthusiastic for this event, so we need to keep in mind failure. They also weren't as enthusiastic as they should have been for glaze this past night and the SPc SREF did much better. It already has 2-4" in ne PA by 7PM tomorrow night. Keep an eye on the SPC HREF MEAN snowfall after the 12z/2 cycle completes around 1030AM. The HRRRX was all over the place for this freezing rain/sleet/snow event that is wrapping up now and am not referencing it today. I as others here , like consistency in the modeling. One event at a time. NY Day 2021 558AM quick update: Extended the date to Jan 4. Ensembles suggesting a pretty good chance of 3+ inches for some the I84 corridor high terrain in possibly two long duration episodes. A short wave diving into the back side of the initial short wave trough may prolong the event considerably for the New England portion of the forum by forming a a very slow moving upper low along the New England coast. So it's complex but potent, especially if the 850-500 MB lows form in a favorable position for banding on the northwest side of this storm near I84. Just too early to overcommit but this could be a nice snow event for the I84 corridor and as previously proposed (modeled), can't rule out a touch of wet snow on the back side for NYC and especially eastern LI on the 4th. Just too early, especially with marginal thermal profiles and absolutely do not want to buy into any 8" amounts seen on some of the single member operational models for New England, at least not this early with so many differing solutions. If it's progressive and mainly afternoon of the 3rd into early 4th, then the 8" amounts won't happen and this would be an interior I84 standard climo modest event. Graphics is the 00z/1 GEFS prob of 2+ inches for this coming storm-- 10 to 1 ratio. Just an idea of primary risk area. --- Uncertainties exist including how much deepening and track for NYC subforum qpf, timing thermal profiles for phase change to wet snow. Looks like it will happen despite GFSV16 dropping it in recent cycles. EC has been on it for 3 successive cycles (prior to the 00z/30 cycle) and EPS now throwing out decent qpf (still does with the 00z/30 cycle) and a bit of snowfall all the way down to LI (questionable but could occur late in the storm and not be much...but??). 12z/29 NAEFS has it a little and the fact that the 12z/29 GGEM lit into it, also the 12z/29 UK, should be enough for us to give it a good chance to produce snow down to at least the I84 corridor. Others have been wanting a topic to track the models etc for this increasingly likely Sunday January 3 potential nor'easter. The initial precipitation (rain) from this initially weak Virginias low pressure system could begin after sundown Saturday Jan 2, as rain. As it intensifies and 500 MB heights lower, the combined lift, cooling thicknesses plus north-northeast wind advection of somewhat colder boundary layer temps southward, should change precipitation to snow along the I84 corridor by early Sunday, and possibly down to I95 west and north of NYC by nightfall Sunday? Rain over NYC and LI possibly ends as a bit of snow later Sunday or Monday morning? Probably too early for all this scenario detail but it's based on the 12z/29 NAEFS, EPS, GGEM, UKMET. No snow amount forecast though it appears that elevations should have highest accumulations, presuming it does snow. Snow looks to be slushy during the daytime and generally controllable for road crews, especially valleys, since daytime melting of any snowfall would occur during periods of lighter precipitation rates with marginal temps of 31-34F. LOW chance paragraph but reserve the option to increase IMPACTs of wet snow, add a small chance of gust 50MPH LI and minor flooding for a couple of NJ/PA rivers based upon the already anomalously wet December, plus future unknown qpf's from Jan 1 and 3...IF qpf up to I84 increases to 3/4" and mostly snow along I84? This is unlikely for now, but could happen, especially in the deformation zone if a closed low to 700MB develops near LI in this positive tilt trough. After review of the 00z/30 and 00z/31 cycle-no changes. Best to keep options open and look to the I84 corridor as most likely area to see some snow. Marginal thermal profiles the continuing concern. 00z/31 ensembles are growing qpf... but surface and upper lows may be too close to LI/se MA for much snow in the NYC subforum. This looks to me to be mainly an elevation I84 corridor wet snow concern. Definitely cannot commit any further details - just too uncertain and that uncertainty may continue another day or 2. Far from an ideal snow event, but also the typical winter uncertainties for our area.
  6. Mostly all rain should be confined to the region s of I-78, LI-NYC. Sleet or snow begins near I78 ~9 or 10A and spreads northeast, possibly possibly drying out to flurries reaching CT/se NYS midday. Thereafter the bigger part of this event occurs 2PM-2AM as mostly wet snow just nw of I95. Heaviest snowfall seems slated for the elevations including the Poconos-Catskills with 3-5", 2 to possibly 5" rest of se NYS, nw NJ along and north of I80 to the Merritt Parkway-in other words west of the CT River, but possibly a dryer zone of under 2" to at most 4" ne CT-central MA. These amounts are uncertain-based on guidance through the 06z/3 cycle. There will be melting on pavement today below 700 feet elevation during the day but a plowable snow seems certain for the hilly areas, especially w of the CT River with accumulation on all untreated surfaces after sundown. The precipitation driver will probably at least in part be an inverted trough developing northwest from a rapidly deepening low pressure system heading east northeast of the mid Atlantic coast. The inverted portion of the trough should be back to the Poconos and that I think is why the heavier qpf tends to be modeled there.
  7. A routine wintry ice event, that will create some travel problems in high terrain above 1000 feet late today and early tonight, primarily along the I84 corridor.
  8. We are hitting well into the window for December discussion. My best event of winter was on December 12th last year and I believe in 2019 it was a December event for the far Eastern areas. That was as the pattern of a very cold November bled into December. To get there this year we are going to have to count on the pattern to switch in December itself. Hints that it may, at least for a short time, as we head into the last few days of November and first week of December.
  9. Topic Edit 508AM: Added HIGH IMPACT and the time back in to the topic and extended 4 hours. Strongest winds in NJ/ne PA/se NYS roughly 10PM-4A, NYC/se NYS 1A-6A, LI/CT 2A-to possibly as late as 9A/25 e tip of LI. Minimum wind gust on LI 55 MPH with max 75MPH, NYC-se NYS minimum wind 50 MPH isolated max 70 MPH. Please follow NWS on all warnings/statements. I'll leave it yourselves to add graphics etc as need be. I'll begin an OBS-NOWCAST thread by 6A. Have not looked at soundings but everything else discussed in yesterdays 518AM topic edit below including HSLC SVR's continues. We may reach within 2F of the record 66F-2015 max temp for Christmas Day at CP. Flooding of some of the larger rivers, if it is to occur, may be delayed 24 hours or more after after the rain quits Christmas morning, Max rainfall axis in our forum looks to me to be CT, isolated 4", not including snowmelt runoff. If anything is missed, please let me know. Thank you. Topic Edit 518AM Wednesday 12/23: No significant changes. The prime threat period might by 2 hours too fast but not enough evidence to change the primary initialization period of weather related issues. My assessment tells me to prepare, without science, for many many thousands without power starting 9PM to midnight Christmas Eve evening, and then across se NYS, LI, CT, MA beginning midnight to 6AM Christmas morning. Gusts NYC airports should be 45-55kt, with potential for isolated 65KT LI/CT/MA. I expect SVR's for the HSLC lines of heavy showers to help focus the primary short-fuse threats. Lower chance of any damage northeast PA but ridges there will be most vulnerable there to ~ 55 MPH gusts. There is limited science on power outage wind damage with leaved trees, without, softer unfrozen ground versus frozen but I don't have this information nor any private services predictive algorithms. I still think that wind damage will prevail as the most important aspect of this storm, but please follow NWS flood watches, warnings as issued, due to the combined snowmelt and new widespread NYC subforum rainfall of 1-2", with isolated 4" potential inland-most of this in a 9 hour period during Thursday night, Any snow on the backside is exceedingly minor on the I84 high terrain. There actually might be a little better chance for a slight coating of snow Christmas night with the weakening trough aloft passage. --- Topic edit at 526AM Tuesday the 22nd: Changed the title to WILL be accompanied by damaging wind LI, and restricted the period of accumulative snow to the interior. I think the wind damage potential is the largest threat from this rapidly deepening 980s surface low moving northward up the front into NYS predawn Christmas. SVR's possible (in my mind likely, even if no lightning) for High Shear Low Cape (HSLC) heavy showers.The Richardson (R)#/wind profile combo on the NAM and even GFS tells me 45kt+ gusts all the major airports in NYC sometime between 10P/24 and 5A/25 . This is further supported by multiple models 80KT+ 850MB winds over LI, in some cases around 90-95kt. From my looking at R# and wind grab, this has the most favorable potential in my past 3 months of examining to realize downward transfer 50-65KT from the lowest 25 to 50 MB of the boundary layer. Whether an isothermal sounding in the lowest part of the boundary layer, or even a slightly inverted sounding can diminish-mute the potential, I don't know. What I do think, is that a lot of folks could wake up with lights out Christmas morning across LI, and possibly NJ/CT. Flooding potential to me looks the same as it did yesterday-previous days, all a matter of qpf, snowmelt combo to prompt a few rivers into minor or eventually moderate flood stage, even as temps plummet from 60ish near midnight Christmas morning, to near freezing by ~ Noon Friday. Please follow NWS closely on flood potential-they have more tools than I. Snowfall, accumulation less than 1 inch probably restricted in our forum counties only I84 high terrain northwestward. I'll copy this to the last page of this topic and add a couple of wind profiles there. The future posts will look at FOUS BL winds, which I think will exceed 34kt at LGA and BOS around 06z and 12z/25 respectively. IF not, then I'm a little too severe on my wind expectations. Also, I'll be adding shorter term wind gust potential graphics, especially Wednesday onward. (corrected many typos 826A) --- Below from the origination date of Friday evening the 18th. This topic is started primarily because of the recent operational model cycles at one time or another offering a more than ordinary 12-18 hour period of weather here near Christmas, on top of melting snow. Always uncertainty. Uncertainties abound, including how far inland can a couple of hours of 60 degree temperatures penetrate to melt the snowpack, and will there be any hazardous snow accumulation closer than the hilly western and northern suburbs? Add to that, is there an inversion thats prevent excessive low level winds from reaching the ground.? Snowpack will be melting a bit the next few days,, til a sudden brief surge of 60 degree warmth Thursday evening or very early Friday morning, associated with a strong cold front. That front is embedded within a high amplitude trough. It's slowed by a strong 1030-35MB high anchored near the Maritimes, and there is potential for northward moving low pressure along the front, as it traverses across the NYC forum. Max rainfall should be concentrated just inland (se or sse surface wind) and combined with remaining snow, may? be enough to promote some small stream flooding? Flooding will be dependent on how much snow melts on the 24th/early 25th combining with around 1" to possibly 2" of rain, prior to the sharp cool down to near freezing by midday the 25th. Current 12/18 river response models to multiple ensembles are not alarmed at this point so I don't want to make this look worse than it will be. Of greater concern is the ECMWF cyclic offering of 60+ MPH gusts to LI (50 inland) which may cause some damage. Recent experience with the storm of the 16th-17th suggests to me, that we will need at least 60 MPH gusts to see significant damage along the coasts and ridges. It's possible - IF the 850MB southerly jet can exceed 75 knots, preferably 85 knots. The 18z/18 GFS has 80 knots for e LI and the 12z/18 EC has near 100 knots for all of LI. IF the ECMWF were to verify, it would be lights out for many and not a pleasant Christmas morning. Timing of the event probably sometime at night (6P/24-6A/25 EST) Snow: Backside snow doesn't often accumulate significantly with temperatures falling rapidly from the 60s to near freezing. Thinking best chance I84 corridor high terrain sometime Friday morning the 25th. Graphics: 1) 12z/18 EC 850 wind. EC surface gusts, GEFS chance of 60 MPH wind gusts early Christmas and finally, the WPC qpf forecast from ~18z/18. 608P/18
  10. Figured we’d go ahead and start a thread for this possible storm so we could have a separate thread to look back on it In the future. Middle and East Tennessee look to have the best chances with this system, (hope west Tn can creep into this scenario as well). Either way it’s nice to have something to track around Christmas time as this doesn’t happen very often. Fingers crossed we all can have a white Christmas! Let the speculation begin.
  11. Periods of light snow or flurries today in the I84 corridor will possibly maximize their accumulations near Interstate 95 between 10AM and 3PM with a narrow stripe of 1," possibly just sw through north of NYC and a chance of measurable in the city. Not all models agree but the NAM, RGEM, HRRR from 06z/20 are on board. Doubt if it will much impact on well traveled pavements, especially treated, but side streets etc may become slush covered with this pleasant refreshing of the snowpack, wherever more than 1/4" occurs. Central and eastern LI may not see snow or if any, it would be too warm for accumulation. Checking the 3K NAM profile, there is a small chance visibility will lower to 3/4 mi in S- for an hour or so during midday. For the I84 corridor, maximum snowfall appears destined for CT and occurring there mostly this afternoon. One experimental snow accumulation graphic is added from 06z/20 (HRRRX) Not for this thread, but a heads that increasingly unstable moist lapse rates may bring a surprise 1" to parts of our NYC suborum between 10PM Monday and 10 AM Tuesday with the passage of a fairly strong cold trough aloft. A separate thread will be started for that on Monday, if that speculation still looks reliable. 536A/20 Edited 105PM: Looks like nw 1/4 NJ and a part of interior se NYS, and most of ne PA will have missed this minor short duration negligible impact event except to brighten the spirits of the snow enjoying families/shoppers. I thought we'd at least get flurries up here but NOT so far. Not complaining. Just an observation. Nice day up here, despite no snow. No change on thinking for early Tue. 103PM.
  12. This may be the first of 3 storms this week (14-19) with northeast wind in the NYC forum and a strongly -NAO with blocking in progress, that could dump up to a foot of snow, (in total) on parts of the forum by midnight Saturday. Uncertainty exists, especially intensity of the storm and associated upper air pattern, as well as it's track. This one so far with uncertainty on the r/s line and qpf amounts but potential exists for several inches of wet snow on the northern fringe of this late developing but weak nor'easter as it passes to our south. It may finally bring NYC it's first minor measurable amount of wet snow (twas a close call on Dec 5th at CP). Tides are astronomically high so that there is a small chance of minor flooding in a few spots at the time of high tide both Monday and Tuesday morning's. Since most of the snowfall (or of any snowfall) should be during the daylight hours Monday in our area, pavements will tend to be wet where it snows except the hilly areas west through northeast of NYC, if it occurs there and comes downs hard enough. This is probably a day, to get snow stakes into the as yet unfrozen ground, and prep your snow blower-thrower for possible use Wednesday. By the time Monday afternoon rolls around we should pretty much know whether this will be a week of substantial snowfall for parts of the NYC forum.
  13. This posts due to forum interest in wintry weather, but with uncertainty on evolution of precipitation events and how far south ice or snow can develop (even a low chance NYC). Marginal thermal profiles may limit snow or ice to I84 northward but may be worth monitoring for a minor or moderate wintry weather event I84. The NAEFS pattern along with various models, though cyclically inconsistent, suggest the possibility that the latter part of the Mondays(14th) precipitation could be a little ice or even end as snow along the I84 corridor. A wintry event possibility. Evolution thereafter is uncertain but it appears there will be some sort of decent storm system heading into the northeast USA which has a chance to involve snow-ice, at least along the I84 corridor. It's possible short wave interactions will force a northward buckle of the thicknesses and result in all rain but for now, I think there is enough model guidance to open the door for some wintry weather, mainly I84, sometime between 16th-18th. Confidence for one or two precipitation events in that 5 day period is above average, and a good sign is the constancy of a decently strong upper level jet just to our south (LF quad= exit region), frequently with the jet core near VA. Normal High Low at CP next week is ~43-32. Added two graphics: the WPC midday Tuesday (8th) chance of of more than 1/4" frozen water equivalent Monday the 14th. and the CPC D6-10 outlook for the 14th-18th. As we draw closer, it may be that we'll delete some of this and refocus the topic title- for now, this should hold us. Let's see if we can get a little winter in our area next week.
  14. This topic for Friday-Sunday dual event is posted with much lower issuing confidence than the topics of 11/11-15, and 11/30-12/01. There may be several verifiable flood (not flash flood) warnings for rivers-small stream in northern NJ-northwest of I95 by Sunday morning from a widespread 1-2" rainfall, isolated 3" possible. There is a small chance for 45+ MPH gusts. It appears the best chance of verifiable hazards will be along the I84 higher terrain where ice or snow can occur. The ice or snow amounts 3-4 days in the future cannot be counted on to be more than 1 tenth inch glaze or more than 3" of snow, though the option exists for heavier snowfall north of I84. Lead precipitation Friday afternoon and night is associated with a reinforcing cold front. Rain NYC. However the I84 corridor may see some wet snow Friday night? mPING. Saturday: Chilly rain most of the NYC forum, heavy at times with 1-2" general, isolated 3". I84-best chance that there could be some ice Saturday before cooling thicknesses and the rapidly developing low change precipitation to some snow before it ends Saturday night or Sunday morning. mPING may be quite helpful. Winds: Depends how fast the storm develops. If a 998MB low is south of Islip Saturday-then brief northeasterly gusts 40-50 MPH Saturday would be possible on LI and the NJ coast, otherwise I think there may be a better chance of northwest wind gusts 45-50 MPH Saturday night or Sunday morning as the storm moves rapidly past Boston. After further review, I don't think tidal flooding will be a significant threat Saturday. Starter graphics: 6 hr FFG..shows the vulnerable areas. Once yesterdays wave off rising river waters passes Wednesday night, I'll add some small stream guidance-if it applies. Added the 12z/1 GEFS prob of 1". Yellow is up around 75-80% chance. The 12z/1 EPS also has 1-1.5" as does the 12z/1 NAEFS. Final starter graphic is a 52 member NAEFS blend of where the sfc low will be and it's intensity Saturday evening. You'll note the yellow color northeast of the center... that implies greater variability of the pressures there..and could mean that the surface low will be further northeast by Saturday evening. Good luck with this... I hope this topic will produce some verifiable NWS hazards. 521P/1
  15. As a lover of the weather, many of you are probably interested and potentially talented enough to learn how to use your skill to trade commodity futures and conservative options such as natural gas (UNG), coffee (JO) and the grain market. While everyone gets excited about snowstorms, there is just as much potential excitement watching stocks and commodities affected by weather. Yes, watching stocks such as Apple and Amazon soar over the years may. not be your cup of tea, so why not learn how to use weather forecasts to make investments in things affected by weather. While I am firm believer in climate change and a warming planet, this winter has the potential to be much colder. I began telling clients last week that I thought we would go into a negative Arctic Oscillation Phase as shown on the upper right. Other than La Nina, it is quite possible that "aerosols" from the historic western fires are getting caught up in the atmosphere and warming the Arctic. This will help the AO index to go negative with cold late fall weather in at least the Midwest and possibly the eastern U.S. OCTOBER GLOBAL RAINFALL ANAMOLIES WHEN THE AO INDEX IS NEGATIVE My teleconnection program at www.climatepredict.com is free for you to use and you can click on different teleconnections such as the AO index and see historical rainfall, snowfall and temperature trends months in advance. Notice, for example, how in October other commodities such as coffee, wheat and soybeans are influenced by the negative AO index. I will be starting a much less expensive, monthly global commodity weather newsletter that is much more affordable from my web site www.bestweatherinc.com. and if you are interested in learning about commodities and weather you can always sign up for a FREE trial Regards, Jim
  16. Not much to really say here. This winter was an abysmal wet mess, best to be forgotten. The grades (all items are equally weighted) Overall Seasonal Snowfall: F Well under average snow fell. This may have been my worst snowfall ever in any of the places I have lived (Albany, NY area, Lake George area, Bristol, R.I., Washington DC, Arlington, VA, Boston, Ma, Stoughton, MA, Brooklyn, CT) . I don't think I have ever had a winter season where the snow total was less than half of the average. Even the 2011/2012 had more snow. Snow vs. Rain: D+ Such an ongoing sh.itty set up for my area from January onward, and it seemed to just repeat itself all season. Cold rain was king. Staying power of the pack: F Pack? Local winter enjoyment: D- Limited hikes(w/ snow) hikes or snow, and zero snow shoeing hikes. Temperature: D Snow Storm Quality: C- Only one "memorable" event was the first event of the season, December 1-3. There were ZERO double digit events. Overall Grade: F The Vid took my mind off of the later part of the season, but even a late blooming April event couldn't save what was a complete and utter dead rat of a winter. On to the upcoming 2020/2021, Winter of Mask
  17. I have had a bunch of requests to make available historical global ocean temperatures so you can compare various El Nino, La Nina events and much more to any year of your choice. Now you can access everything you need for FREE here CLIMATE PREDICT including all hurricane tracks, snow cover maps and much more back to 1958
  18. Ive been doing this 2003 on weather boards. In the boards hey day it was quite a popular post lol. I still like to do one every year. Winter 2019-20 saw 43.8" of snow imby. DTW had 43.7". After Detroit saw the largest November snowstorm on record, the earliest single digit temp on record, and the 13th coldest November on record, we followed with the 9th warmest winter on record, and then frequent snow and near record cold in mid-late April and again, of all things, in early-mid May. Overall a winter of frustration but not without several good snowstorms and in the end, average snowfall. Three decent storms hit (8.8", 7.0", and 5.7") and much of the seasons snow had a high water content, with the only true period of fluffy snow being in early Feb. October 2019 - Trace of snow Wind-driven rain turned to snow Halloween night, with no accumulation. November 2019 - 9.1" of snow The first half of Nov was the 2nd coldest on record, behind only 1880, and saw a 9.2" snowstorm on Nov 11-12 become the largest Nov snowstorm on record for Detroit (old record 9.0"). I saw 8.8" with that storm. The scenes were surreal with some trees clinging to late color. A record low of 7F on the 13th was the earliest single digit low on record, and a solid blanket of snow remained on the ground for 9 days, fully melting on the 12th day. 11-7-19 heavy snow squalls drop 0.2", the first measurable snow of the season 11-11-19 heavy snow drops an unprecedented amount of snow for so early in the season 11-12-19 - beautiful scenes and record cold follow snowstorm which dumped 8.8" of snow imby and 9.2" at Detroit, 11-14-19 a light dusting of snow falls but the deep winter wonderland is still in place with record mid-Nov cold 11-16-19 still plenty of snow in place for the Wyandotte Christmas parade. The ground would go bare Nov 21.
  19. Hi there, I have been a meteorologist and commodity analyst for 35 years. I am really excited about offering meteorologists FREE access to my software and how you use teleconnections to forecast better. There is a site on the internet at NOAA that allows forecasters to do analog studies, etc. but here is a great product that allows you to receive 1) Historical snowfall and hurricane maps going back 70 years; 2) Looking at the relationship of any of 28 global teleconnections (From the MJO to the AO/NAO index and many more) to predict rainfall, temps, etc. months in advance. You can check this out and get all sorts of historical data at CLIMATE PREDICT Whether your want to know how the Indian Dipole might change and affect crops in Southeast Asia, or which analogs will best help you forecast summer weather for natural gas regions, severe weather or hurricanes, check it out. I would be happy to answer any questions you may have about teleconnections. Regards, Jim Roemer www.bestweatherinc.com
  20. Almost everything outside of the mid-week light snow shower chance is now based in hoping February's decent ensemble modeling trends aren't the 40th head fake of the winter season. The GEFS snow mean is nice but seemingly meaningless the past few winters, as it has virtually not verified in 48 months when it shows these snowy solutions. The Euro at D10 looks better than it did at day 10 yesterday, so there's that. Still looks like a robust frontal passage behind a cutter in a fast moving pattern, rather than something that will set up shop and allow for truly cold weather to arrive for any length of time. If we get lucky and the Polar Vortex splits but will it help us? It split last year and record breaking cold hit the Midwest but didn't propagate into our back yards. I've not looked but I'd guess there's been very few times when Chicago had highs in the -10 range that it didn't get cold here. Last year that happened and we stayed warm. It also takes a few weeks for the PV to change weather in the Lower 48 most of the time. That would put us on track for the backside of February into March at best, where even with the aid of the TPV we'd probably be looking at lower elevation cold rain and elevated snow unless we got a bowling ball. If we are still hoping to reel in something in the D9-16 range in a week or 10 days, winter is likely over until late March or April, where it will invariably turn frigid for 2 weeks with rain or snow showers.
  21. A series of clippers looks likely, they are notoriously fickle in the area. Earlier the Saturday clipper was showing up for West Tennessee but now looks like it's shifted east. As always the higher up the better. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Smokies end up with over a foot when it's all said and done. The Plateau could get a few inches as well. Crossville to my area seems to be in the 1-3 inch range through Saturday. As always it will depend on timing and surface temps. Night would be much better.
  22. Going to get this loaded and on-deck for observations for December, January, and February. Specific events will likely have their own observation threads. This thread is for the time in between events. Winter is coming! In honor of the last Skywalker movie...
  23. Figured we could have a separate thread dedicated strictly to December. Should be helpful when looking back on the discussions in the future. Hope everyone is doing well, and I hope we all have a December to remember!
  24. Good Monday morning (Jan 20) everyone, Am a little uneasy starting this event specific topic since uncertainty exists regarding thermal profile and latitude of the primary-secondary development but I thought it best to get this going since it's a potential national news story from the Ohio Valley-Great Lakes to the interior northeast. Upfront: NYC-LI doesn't look promising at this time for more than 3" of snow , if any snow at all, due to the marginal thermal profile in advance of this system. The GEFS through 00z/20 was north of the EPS. There is still plenty of time-room for adjustment but at face value (00z/20 ensembles), this looks to me to be a primarily a northeast PA, northwest NJ northeastward into nw CT (I84 corridor) wet snowstorm with lots of potential (for a bust=no significant snow). My take is it will snow there for a time and that this event could be substantial impact upon higher terrain. I'm adding some graphics - these should not amp up NYC or points south.... but for me serve as a starter for a winter event. These include the 05z/20 NWS ensemble chance of 3+ inches of snow which is less than 10% for NYC. Then I've added..courtesy of the ECMWF and Weather.US, the 00z/20 EPS probs for 3 and 6" for this event (6 days in advance). I've also added the 00z/20 GEFS snowfall plume for LGA which is very low... most plumes under 2". This all adjusts as we move forward in time. If you want to root for snow, root development south of both ensemble systems 00z/20 positions. Am still concerned this will end up north and warmer (rain) up to I84. 625A/20
  25. Good Monday morning everyone, Have offered to focus the general discussion thread on next weekends storm into one single thread. It's been a terrible winter so far s of I80 and not much to boast about north of I80. I'm adding graphics daily at about this time, until the threat fails to materialize. No guarantees on anything. It does not look good for NYC south, so far. Contributions are from the NWS public domain and the Weather.US and the ECMWF. We'll see how this verifies for long range value. The first two graphics are the NWS ensemble chance of greater than .25" water equivalent of frozen precipitation. These are run off of late day ensembles and post, "prior" to the 00z cycle ensembles. The two graphics courtesy of the ECMWF are the chances of 3+" of snow for this event which are increasing a bit in the I84 area and are from the 00z ensembles. No LOCK on any of this coming to pass though I'm pretty confident the interior west and north of NYC will have some sort of winter hazards this weekend. Depends I think, in part on how strong the northern stream short wave is that crosses the Great Lakes. The stronger it is, then I think the storm tracks further north. At 633AM the 14th, I added the 00z/14 NWS ensemble and EPS chance of 3+ inches of snow so that it's easy to go back and compare to reality. The risk has increased a bit for the NWS ensemble system to something similar to the EPS. Certainly no lock for 3+ inches s of I-84. At 457PM/19 added the NOHRSC snowfall analysis. Gives a feel for value in the ensembles. Later, Walt