Jump to content

brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,637

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I'm just asking because if he means one daily reading at +2.01C is super, then yes, this can certainly become super. everyone seems to have their own definition these days
  2. brooklynwx99
    that just does not look like an overwhelming EP super Nino response. wonder why
  3. brooklynwx99
    yeah it's basically Feb 2010 all over again. makes sense given what's been talked about ad nauseam in this thread
  4. brooklynwx99
    by super, do you mean three consecutive trimonthly periods that average +2.0C or greater? just to be clear
  5. brooklynwx99
    i know people will jump on this because it's JB, but this is all pretty reasonable honestly
  6. brooklynwx99
    come on dude. that is a cold, stormy 500mb pattern
  7. brooklynwx99
    who cares? Nino Decembers usually suck so this isn’t some grand insight like you think it is
  8. brooklynwx99
    no, that’s the magic of it. that way he can say he was right if it does end up snowy
  9. brooklynwx99
    i’ll take this 10/10 times
  10. brooklynwx99
    yeah this is better in that regard for Jan. Feb is about the same but the trough in the east is deeper and there’s actually an Aleutian low
  11. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF seasonal is pretty great for Jan/Feb
  12. brooklynwx99
    that stuff is going to wobble around from day to day. there is still a considerable a weakening trend once we enter December
  13. brooklynwx99
    i mean, this is what last year’s CanSIPS at the same time showed for last DJF. like come on, this year is night and day
  14. brooklynwx99
    i mean hell, notice how he didn’t post the highly favorable Feb and Mar plots wonder why
  15. brooklynwx99
    not at all. that Feb-Mar pattern would deliver… cross polar flow, blocking, and split flow
  16. brooklynwx99
    the CanSIPS has a great pattern for the back half of winter, which can be really exciting historically in El Niños. that’s about all that has to be said
  17. brooklynwx99
    -VP setting up near the dateline on the ECMWF weeklies as well. this is into the first week of December very similar to the Modoki years and far west of the canonical EP super Nino years
  18. brooklynwx99
    there has been a noticeable trend towards a pretty big weakening of the SPV heading into December now
  19. brooklynwx99
    I would take my chances with that pattern. it's just wise to temper expectations given that it's still quite early and it's not a particularly cold look
  20. brooklynwx99
    i'm skeptical... based on the analogs I've seen, March looks warm, but that could be the back half of the month. if Feb does turn out to be blocky (pretty good chance there), I could certainly see the first half of the month being pretty fun
  21. brooklynwx99
    i doubt that'll be the case this year. +PNA should be pretty well favored especially as after mid-Jan. there isn't much of a correlation to El Nino this early. we'd like to see the Aleutian Low develop once into the first few weeks of Dec
  22. brooklynwx99
    amazing job. we’re in pretty good agreement
  23. brooklynwx99
    new CanSIPS is tasty. starts warm but transitions in Jan to a pretty loaded look for Feb/Mar… -AO/NAO, +PNA/-EPO with split flow
  24. brooklynwx99
    looks like it’s mostly held serve. warm Dec, transitional Jan, and a pretty loaded look for Feb/Mar with a stout Aleutian LP, -NAO/-AO, +PNA/-EPO and split flow
  25. brooklynwx99
    like i would pay for that Feb/Mar pattern. especially Feb
×
×
  • Create New...