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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    overall synoptic setup is very favorable on the 20th as the block decays and the TPV vacates towards the 50/50 region. wouldn't be surprised to see models pick up on something here
  2. brooklynwx99
    i know it’s out there, but the 20th really seems like the time for something bigger after the potential event on the 17th. can see the GFS tank heights over the N Atl as the block decays. it fits the general KU progression (just a progression, not guaranteeing anything)
  3. brooklynwx99
    i’m not in denial. you’re kidding yourself if you think the polar domain in the same as those years. that was my point… it’s not a canonical 500mb pattern. not sure why there’s can’t be any nuance in these discussions
  4. brooklynwx99
    also has a favorable setup similar to the other ensembles as the blocking decays. southern stream wave slips under the PNA ridge with a 50/50 in place
  5. brooklynwx99
    EPS is way more favorable than the OP with lower heights in SE Canada
  6. brooklynwx99
    nice pattern evolution here as the blocking decays and the TPV moves into the 50/50 region. GEFS and GEPS both try to amplify a wave in its wake
  7. brooklynwx99
    want to wait a couple of days here, but if the amplification is real as the TPV moves into that spot and the block decays, might be honk time. lmao
  8. brooklynwx99
    can see energy working in from the south, too
  9. brooklynwx99
    this is much better in the Atlantic afterwards. just need a wave to slip underneath
  10. brooklynwx99
    then, the MJO moves into the central Pacific and the Aleutian Low develops
  11. brooklynwx99
    i think it’s the Niña background state
  12. brooklynwx99
    also, canonical EP super Nino, my ass
  13. brooklynwx99
    I was always talking about mid-Jan as the main turning point. sure the Weeklies were nice and I posted them, but those took a back seat to the general pattern progression, which seems to be occurring now
  14. brooklynwx99
    overrunning? i can see it. way out there, of course
  15. brooklynwx99
    that 500mb ridge is also deceiving. with the cold airmass already in place along with a -EPO and 50/50, it's actually a better pattern than it looks
  16. brooklynwx99
    I would expect more confluence to show up with blocking like this. that's usually how these kinds of pattern correct
  17. brooklynwx99
    no changes
  18. brooklynwx99
    he has never attacked or trolled. ever
  19. brooklynwx99
    yes, this is not the typical EP GoA blowtorch like those years had. this year will stray pretty far from those years on the mean
  20. brooklynwx99
    canonical EP Nino pattern for mid-January… right? RIGHT??
  21. brooklynwx99
    into the shitter for a week or so in late Jan, yeah. i don’t see a reason for the bulk of Feb to be crappy. nothing argues for that
  22. brooklynwx99
    seems like a solid window from the 15-23rd afterwards. good agreement on all ensemble guidance
  23. brooklynwx99
    i’m not going to act like a good pattern doesn’t look good. there are many other people that will already do that
  24. brooklynwx99
    i have no idea where that came from, but that accusation was so foul i had to respond lmao
  25. brooklynwx99
    “all due respect” lol
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