brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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that appears to be a transient pattern as the MJO quickly passes through the unfavorable phases
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weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan. makes sense as the MJO goes into favorable phases
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weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan
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strong to super Ninos have a pretty significant dearth of blocking in December. it is unusual to see a persistent -NAO this early Ninos that do have -NAO Decembers carry it over through the rest of the winter more than not, though
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i know the Pacific isn’t ideal at this point, but seeing the persistent -NAO signal is awesome to see for the rest of the winter
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i know the Pacific isn’t ideal at this point, but seeing the persistent -NAO signal is awesome to see for the rest of the winter
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the Pacific just has to be serviceable. it was god awful the last two years, i don’t expect that this year
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and yes, the Pacific isn’t amazing there, but it is not nearly as prohibitive as it was last year. it should also improve as the MJO progresses east
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also, the move through the 6-7 phases as well as the B-K Sea ridge will help disrupt the SPV further. this signal for a Scandi ridge can also retrograde into a -NAO
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this is a clean progression into 7-8-1
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the same occurs in La Niña years when we get forcing into 7-8
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i’m pretty sure it’s weakened
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save winter? no, but it just builds the case for string blocking later in the year is all. the Pacific was supposed to be pretty uncooperative early on and should get better late month. i’ve really only seen good things so far… the things that have been bad have also been sorta expected
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it’s also worth noting that high amplitude passes though 5-6-7 can also help lead to SPV warming and subsequent SSWs
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it probably will be problematic mid month. no reason to believe it won’t become more favorable late month as the MJO continues to progress
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i do like the B-K Sea / Scandi ridging showing up on all ENS. that helps weaken the SPV as well as perhaps retrograde into the NAO domain
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i do like the B-K Sea / Scandi ridging showing up on all ENS. that helps weaken the SPV as well as perhaps retrograde into the NAO domain
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can we at least wait until the month is over? jesus christ
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GEFS looks better with the trailing wave and +PNA
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GEFS looks better with the trailing wave and +PNA
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the pattern on the GFS is actually pretty great: potent +PNA, deep S/W diving into the OH Valley, 50/50 ULL, and a west-based -NAO the big caveat is that it's early, so 1) longer wavelengths, so it can't wrap up as easily, and 2) it's fighting climo
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GFS has been steadily trending towards something there. very thread-the-needle, but worth an eye
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didn't you get a 30" JP in Jan 2022
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highly doubt. there will be spells, though. same as when we get temporary spells of 7 and 8 in a Nina. happened in Jan 2022 when we got that blizzard at the end of the month
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the MJO is going around the horn. it'll take until mid-month to get back into 7-8-1, but all ENS and the CFS get it there. should open up a more favorable period around the third or fourth week of the month as many have been saying. this is likely a small detour... I don't see a reason why forcing would remain in that area, as ENSO becomes more of a factor and promotes subsidence over the MC SPV weakening also does warm us up here, too
