brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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seems to be a slower progression. modeling underdid how strong the Pacific jet would get since they underestimated the +EAMT event. they corrected, and they still look good once the jet retracts. it's just backed up a bit. wouldn't worry too much about it also, given how weak the SPV is going to get (could even see a SSW), we should see more blocking, especially late Jan into Feb
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i don't think that's it's needed per se, but it would definitely help set the stage for a very blocky February. I think the jet retraction is the main catalyst for a more favorable Jan pattern and the main blocking spell coincides with the SPV shenanigans heading into Feb
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if we get a SSW (which is a legit possibility) then it could seriously be hammer time for February. but we will see about that
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i would be shocked if there wasn't a change to a more favorable pattern. analogs and seasonals have been screaming for it since the summer. combine that with the weak SPV and previous -NAO spell and there's a good case for it
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the jet has retracted pretty handily by this point, which is nice to see
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also good job @Allsnow and @bluewave for your skepticism. I still think we'll enter a favorable pattern once into Jan (probably around the 10th if I had to guess?) and especially Feb, but the Nino is really flexing its muscles right now. pretty par for the course with strong Nino Decembers, though
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there is a pretty good shot we move to d) later this winter, though. just gotta be patient
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i mean, it is. the jet extends due to a +EAMT that leads to an easterly PGF (and winds). the Pacific jet counteracts that EAMT to conserve momentum. it's not going to remain extended like that forever. it's a temporary solution to a physics problem, basically
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the jet will retract at some point. seems to be a bit after Christmas for now but we'll see if this is correct on the timing
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there is cold, it’s just over the ocean so the anoms aren’t as strong. pretty awful looking maps though
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extratropical forcing is leading to a huge momentum pulse from the Pacific jet… a +EAMT, to be exact. models under did the influence of this forcing, but luckily, it’s temporary
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they don’t. it’s literally avoidant attachment but instead of the girl you like, it’s with snow
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i just consider warming to be a SSW when 10mb mean zonal winds become easterly
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this would help. potent signal for significant weakening, if not an actual SSW in early Jan. the -QBO is putting in work
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the Pacific jet retracts pretty handily by the end of the run. this would allow for more of a typical Aleutian LP and heights in AK would recover
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you can see the jet retraction happening here. good to see models showing this, as it would lead to more of a typical Aleutian LP rather than a rogue super GoA low
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it isn't getting kicked for some nebulous reason like it does for the truly shitty winters. there was a jet extension modeled that usually promotes a +PNA and sometimes a -EPO, but there was extratropical forcing that led to the jet becoming way too strong. luckily, that is a temporary factor, and the pattern likely becomes more favorable into early Jan as the jet inevitably retracts somewhat. it's like a delay of a week or so, most likely, and it's for a well defined reason
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heights over AK should improve as the jet retracts, thus improving the source region the difference with the source region is night and day comparing the end of December and the start of Jan, verbatim anyway. you have cross polar flow in Jan showing up there
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yeah I can see a touch AN especially into NE, but the torch should abate as we step into typical Nino climo
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not making a direct pattern comparison to Feb 2010 by any means, just saying that Canada doesn't need to be frigid or even near normal for our intents and purposes. their averages are way colder than ours. that doesn't address the lack of cold air here, but it can be colder than average here and way warmer than average there and it works
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this is my point about Canada. these were the 850mb temp anomalies in Feb 2010. Canada was absolutely roasting... some spots were like 15F above normal right in our SE Canada source region. like literally all of Canada is inundated with Pacific air and at least 5 degrees F above normal and it didn't matter
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i can see us getting to near normal during the end of the first week of Jan. Central Canada can be +5 for all we care, that is cold enough in Jan
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i don't expect the Pacific jet to remain this strong. there's going to be an anomalous +EAMT event that leads to the extension and heights in AK likely rise as the jet retracts
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"punting to Jan" isn't really a good term for it. coastal SNE and south don't really do much in December. punting to Feb, on the other hand? that's an issue. don't expect that as of now, though
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i would be shocked if Feb torched
