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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it really is annoying, because the mid-Jan period was ripe with potential and just didn't deliver. had it done so, it completely would have changed the tenor of the winter and many would have been sitting with a significant event under their belts. but of course not
  2. brooklynwx99
    the upcoming pattern would provide the chance for a torrid comeback from Feb 15 through early March... about as good of a chance as any. but I get that people are jaded. it's been tremendously frustrating
  3. brooklynwx99
    I would say through the 10-15th. these patterns are usually quite stable once they form and are often broken by a bigger storm. Nino climo should take over during the second half of the month
  4. brooklynwx99
    yeah sure
  5. brooklynwx99
    significant is 6", major is 12", and historic is 18"
  6. brooklynwx99
    everything still looks on track for mid-month... MJO moving into favorable phases, equatorward Pacific jet extension will foster strong Aleutian low development, split flow, building -NAO via wave breaking in the N Atl. all ensembles are in really good agreement temporally and spatially i'd like to give it another week to get this into a better range, but it looks good
  7. brooklynwx99
    everything still looks on track for mid-month... MJO moving into favorable phases, equatorward Pacific jet extension will foster strong Aleutian low development, split flow, building -NAO via wave breaking in the N Atl. all ensembles are in really good agreement temporally and spatially i'd like to give it another week to get this into a better range, but it looks good
  8. brooklynwx99
    pretty rare to see this much confidence from phase diagrams like this. continues like this into March as well
  9. brooklynwx99
    this is a sick blocking signal for this range
  10. brooklynwx99
    EPS agrees with other guidance, powerful Aleutian low, +PNA/-EPO, split flow, and developing -NAO
  11. brooklynwx99
    GEFS certainly on board. love the split flow showing up on all ENS
  12. brooklynwx99
    this is as split as flow can ever get lmao
  13. brooklynwx99
    love seeing that massive Aleutian low crash southward and lead to split flow. really nice evolution that keeps presenting itself
  14. brooklynwx99
    CMC is trying but failing
  15. brooklynwx99
    it wasn't lucky. the pattern before that storm was a classic KU preloading pattern
  16. brooklynwx99
    wow. switch totally flipped
  17. brooklynwx99
    the ICON isn't even that different from the GFS at the same lead time, it just retros the block a bit more and allows the TPV in to phase. razor thin margins
  18. brooklynwx99
    thanks! I figure that there's enough people being debs, so I don't like to be one. unless absolutely necessary lmao
  19. brooklynwx99
    Feb 2003 wasn’t blocky, though. this could resemble 09-10, just pushed back a couple weeks. Feb 1978 is also close
  20. brooklynwx99
    with a STJ like that alongside blocking, you’re begging for it
  21. brooklynwx99
    welp, we’re seeing it on the GEFS, GEPS and EPS now. just wanna give it another week but all of it tracks when looking at tropical forcing, the equatorward Pacific jet, SPV weakening earlier this month, and general Nino climo
  22. brooklynwx99
    @psuhoffman i agree with your point on the lack of big storms from Feb 20-Mar 5 or so. it seems to be a lack of sample size… there’s no reason why it can’t happen in a cold, blocky pattern. maybe this is the year we set precedent
  23. brooklynwx99
    textbook split flow that Aleutian low is just going to dive equatorward too
  24. brooklynwx99
    cross polar flow develops quickly. it's a pretty rapid flip
  25. brooklynwx99
    it's a ridiculous signal for that lead time. that would be a strong signal at 10 days, let alone almost 3 weeks
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