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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    still skeptical, but it’s hard not to get excited with these kinds of looks. no can kicking and the signal is growing in time if we’re seeing these looks in a week’s time, i think we can say this pattern is real… it would be around a week out on ENS
  2. brooklynwx99
    shift the Aleutian low west a bit and there you have it there were seven major storms in these three years in Feb thru early March
  3. brooklynwx99
    NYC south, really. BOS might have a hard time with strong blocking
  4. brooklynwx99
    there’s a 50/50 on a 7 day mean at like 3 weeks out. like holy crap lmao
  5. brooklynwx99
    yeah, every ensemble has been leading to that look with no push back on the timing. it’s kind of uncanny
  6. brooklynwx99
    i think people underestimate how much damage can be done in 3-4 weeks, as well
  7. brooklynwx99
    i’m not one for dramatics, but if the weeklies have the right idea, someone is getting a MECS or HECS it is literally a recreation of Feb 1958/1978/2010
  8. brooklynwx99
    weeklies are still loaded beyond belief. not a single tick back, either
  9. brooklynwx99
    EPS is near identical to the weeklies
  10. brooklynwx99
    that’s what gets kicked out or retrogrades. it’s not gonna stay there
  11. brooklynwx99
    i don’t think that the GFS solution is likely by any means, but it certainly is a possibility
  12. brooklynwx99
    but… it’s fake! right? RIGHT???
  13. brooklynwx99
    you can see all of the ULLs stretching across the ATL. this is how you get big wave breaking that leads to a -NAO. almost like the ATL is blocking itself up before the block even really forms
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah once you get to the 10th, that's when the trough opens up more into the ATL and heights rise over the WC and AK. that's when you have Arctic air to work with via cross polar flow
  15. brooklynwx99
    are we even punting at this point for storm potential? let alone a torch
  16. brooklynwx99
    LOL
  17. brooklynwx99
    I wanna give it another 5-7 days to see the whites of the better pattern's eyes, but I'm of the same impression for now
  18. brooklynwx99
    this is so zonked lmao wild omega block. i do like seeing polar flow get established, though
  19. brooklynwx99
    yup, just rots there. I mean, it would make sense verbatim given the omega block. there's nowhere for that impulse to go
  20. brooklynwx99
    you’re getting very close to linking those two troughs as well… that’s when you pop your -NAO
  21. brooklynwx99
    speaking for NYC specifically, there were three winters over 30” from 1970-2000. three!! there have been 13 winters over 30” since 2000. five in a row from 2013-2017 the whole “it doesn’t snow as much anymore” argument is BS. there’s just more variance, so when you strike out, you’re at a higher risk of a true dud rather than your standard blah winter
  22. brooklynwx99
    BPD ass forum
  23. brooklynwx99
    all ensembles are in near lock step with both each other and the weeklies. only a few days from the promised land connecting the two troughs
  24. brooklynwx99
    yes, the advertised pattern plays better for like HFD south. once into mid-Feb, everyone can get in on the action… NYC and MA are favored, but 2003 and 1983 got into BOS
  25. brooklynwx99
    if that Canadian block is far enough north to let something underneath, yes
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