brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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I know, but nobody is forecasting a snowstorm... people are only addressing a threat, which is also important. there is certainly a threat or two next week, mainly for the one towards the end of the week if people assign unreasonable expectations due to those threats, that is on that person IMO
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yeah, this is a great look. really nice to see that confluent flow in SE Canada keeping a strong HP in place there
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I like seeing the confluence show up here. increases the chance of strong HP in SE Canada potent shortwave too
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if people looked for what could only go wrong, snowstorms would literally never be forecasted Dec 2010 was thread the needle, Jan 2016 and Feb 2021 had too much confluence and so on it's important to acknowledge periods of higher potential
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the CMC has a really nice evolution the wave on Wednesday establishes confluence with a TPV lobe, there's an amplified S/W moving through the Plains along with a +PNA spike, and then there's a phase with the confluence in place
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the CMC has a really nice evolution the wave on Wednesday establishes confluence with a TPV lobe, there's an amplified S/W moving through the Plains along with a +PNA spike, and then there's a phase with the confluence in place
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GEFS looks great with the shortwave for late next week
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haha I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek, but I would not say that the ridge rolls over here. the axis shifts east a bit, but this happens with every event, even the huge ones like 1996 and 2016. I wouldn't consider it an issue here... the airmass is the biggest one, relatively speaking
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no
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huge signal on the EPS for next week potent shortwave coinciding with a PNA spike and confluence in SE Canada. the HP in SE Canada has trended a good bit stronger as well - more of a banana HP look than yesterday
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also note the strengthening of the HP up top. much more of a banana high look than yesterday, which would help overcome any marginal airmass issues with a strong SLP
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you guys were asking for a Nino (as well as everyone in NYC) - here you go. this type of evolution is right out of the +ENSO handbook really potent shortwave moving across the CONUS coinciding with a +PNA spike and confluence over SE Canada
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huge signal on the EPS for late next week really potent shortwave moving across the CONUS coinciding with a +PNA spike and confluence over SE Canada
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the super-Nino type pattern that we're seeing does force a strong central Canada ridge, but this also increases confluence in SE Canada as a result. HP is often forced downstream of high level ridging, and that's what we're seeing on the GEFS and EPS. because of this, I'm not convinced that the airmass will be unfavorable, especially because of peak climo and a potentially strong SLP
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yeah, this is definitely our best shot. the C Canada ridging actually leads to some nice HP over the top as well due to the initial confluence. not that convinced that the airmass will be bad if there's a nice LP off the coast there are some 1030-40 HPs in really nice spots in SE Canada
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still a strong signal for the potential around the 15th. this has been showing up for days now and it coincides with a strong W US ridge spike
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grown ass man lmao
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it's a pretty potent coastal signal at this range. nothing else is on the horizon, so I think this is worth keeping an eye on
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yeah, this is impressive for this lead time. it's pretty much all we got right now, so we'll see what happens
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yeah, it's pretty bleak outside of the signal around the 14th or so. that one seems kinda legit given the PNA spike associated with it, and it's been consistent on ensembles sucks, but what can you do
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what 3 years of La Nina will do to a mf
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great split flow look here too. would certainly be active
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yeah the EPS is really nice. this looks like a canonical late season Nino with the lowest heights over the SE this lowers compression and would allow for larger coastals to develop
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yeah, it’s not super strong, but I would say so. that flow is coming across the pole… follow the height lines - they’re coming from the Arctic
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EPS is now like the GEFS in the LR now. this is a really nice look
