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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it seems like the clipper midweek next week may provide the first wave break that leads to blocking later on in the run. this is something that we want to monitor... if this continues to trend stronger or even remain the same, it will make it much easier for a -NAO to form the 12z GFS looks to be doing the same FWIW
  2. brooklynwx99
    a -PNA also isn't nearly as much of an issue in March as it is in December due to the shorter wavelengths. a late-season -PNA/-NAO can be prolific I do want to see the -NAO get solidly inside of 10 days, but I would favor it to happen based on the obliterated SPV down to 50mb. it's obviously not a guarantee at all, but it increases the likelihood
  3. brooklynwx99
    10 of the last 35 winters have also had more than 40" of snow, so I'm not really sure what the concern is here. variance is increasing, but we're going to get our fair share of great winters. just going to have to take them with the crap ones
  4. brooklynwx99
    yeah, not gonna lie, I’m getting cautiously optimistic. I want to see the -NAO at within 10 days, first of all, but I think the first 20 days of March could be quite fun before climo becomes problematic
  5. brooklynwx99
    a -PNA isn’t nearly as much of an annoyance in March due to shorter wavelengths. a -PNA/-NAO late in the year can be quite good as long as the PNA isn’t like -5 sigma the -PNA would provide lots of shortwaves and the -NAO would provide a 50/50 that would keep things from cutting. they can be pretty great if you do get that semipermanent 50/50
  6. brooklynwx99
    both the CMC and GFS have the day 8-10 signal as a strong southern stream wave runs into confluence from the TPV in SE Canada. this is probably our best threat in a while
  7. brooklynwx99
    it’s pretty refreshing to see a 50/50 feature be the deepest anomaly in NA. along with the SSW, it helps me think the blocking signal is a bit more legit with the dipole
  8. brooklynwx99
    I could see us getting blitzed in the same way that the West has once we get a legit +ENSO event and the tropical forcing shifts eastward. wouldn't make sense to think otherwise. the last time we had a legit El Nino, we had 30" in 2 days, and there was 2013-14 and 2009-10 the band is going to snap back the other way and it's going to be great. not happening this year, of course. hopefully next!
  9. brooklynwx99
    I don't know of anyone that is actually thinking that besides 15 year olds on twitter I would be quite surprised if we didn't see a legit -NAO spell at some point in early-mid March, though
  10. brooklynwx99
    i would say so. we pray for this, as we’d definitely get some events with this kind of pattern. it’s relentless verbatim SSWEs are unpredictable and blocking is obviously no guarantee, but I would favor it over keeping the status quo with an event of this magnitude
  11. brooklynwx99
    weeklies are kind of ridiculous… locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo
  12. brooklynwx99
    gets better, actually. locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo
  13. brooklynwx99
    la nina
  14. brooklynwx99
    I hope that nobody thinks that anyone that's talking about the SSW is guaranteeing anything... it's just something that can legitimately lead to blocking late in the year and actually shake the pattern up. it's not voodoo either... this is very likely to occur
  15. brooklynwx99
    idk. blocking is showing up during the first week of the month on modeling, and you can get snow for almost the entire month if enough cold air is displaced. I'll take my chances, and if it doesn't happen, it'll torch and that'll be nice too like this storm happened with 10 days left on the month... was a significant one
  16. brooklynwx99
    that's the wild card. I wouldn't get super excited or anything, but the extended modeling is favoring blocking over none at all. I'll take it
  17. brooklynwx99
    SPV from 10-50mb gets torn to shreds. would not surprise me at all if we got blocky in March
  18. brooklynwx99
    hey, what else can we do? nothing in the pipeline for like 10-15 days after this
  19. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the Canadian ENS made a pretty significant shift towards the EPS. much stronger ULL and it's a good bit colder than the GEFS
  20. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the Canadian ENS made a significant improvement compared to 12z. way stronger with the ULL compared to 00z and colder than the GEFS
  21. brooklynwx99
    it is very difficult to get a snowstorm when the system is completely cut off from the northern stream with a bad antecedent airmass, no matter the time of year. this would be a major storm if there was any kind of cold air in place
  22. brooklynwx99
    I wouldn't say that. it's definitely all or nothing, but there is a threat here
  23. brooklynwx99
    considering the odds of 1"+ have steadily increased since 00z today and the 500mb track looks good, I would say it's a legit trend for Sunday
  24. brooklynwx99
    very nice EPS run. great 500mb track
  25. brooklynwx99
    here is the meteogram for BWI from the EPS… multiple significant snowfalls on there
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