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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    like honestly, I know this is a seasonal model, but I can't really look at this and be like "damn, winter is gonna suck"
  2. brooklynwx99
    so much of the ENSO stuff this year has been pretty reductive. I think some that are just looking at raw SSTs are going to get caught with their pants down
  3. brooklynwx99
    honestly i don't care about what he says about winter after talking about 70 degree temps coming up on modeling as Boston is getting 2 feet of snow in late Jan 2022
  4. brooklynwx99
    I'm not worried about this not coupling. I just think that there are going to be differences in forcing that'll give this winter more of a 1986-97/2009-10 flavor rather than a 1997-98 flavor. seasonals have been picking up on that persistently all summer (and now into fall with the CanSIPS). does that guarantee cold and snowy, no I don't even really expect a cold winter as a whole as December likely skews things warm. Feb is the only month I expect to be downright cold. I would be surprised if there wasn't one or two legit shots at a KU, though. even classic super Nino winters like 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had massive storms
  5. brooklynwx99
    2009 is actually our best analog where i work. combining ENSO, QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern, it matches up better than most
  6. brooklynwx99
    CanSIPS still looks amazing. even blockier for February
  7. brooklynwx99
    yeah people rooting for a good December are usually fooling themselves. anyone NYC south, anyway
  8. brooklynwx99
    yup, seems consistent, which is all that matters. I don’t expect much from December so it seems like it’s catching on there finally
  9. brooklynwx99
    this is still going to cause major issues
  10. brooklynwx99
    GFS is pretty useless at this point, as with most globals. might as well stick with mesos at this range... this is like 12 hours out now
  11. brooklynwx99
    absolutely crushes the city. still way more to go
  12. brooklynwx99
    the duality of man
  13. brooklynwx99
    this output doesn't make much sense... the 26" max offshore hints at feedback problems
  14. brooklynwx99
    NAM has 7-8" just E of TTN... still very significant. it's clear that this system is going to lead to major issues somewhere. NE NJ / Monmouth / NYC is favored, but it's still up in the air
  15. brooklynwx99
    still really bad, just in a different spot than 12z. still going too
  16. brooklynwx99
    comical
  17. brooklynwx99
    not saying it doesn't strengthen a bit further, but a trimonthly ONI peak over 2C seems quite unlikely. I mean, it's already October, so we're strapped for time here I'm still thinking we peak in the 1.6-1.9C range
  18. brooklynwx99
    PAUL ROUNDY SUPER NINO!!!!!
  19. brooklynwx99
    only thing is that's the BOM, which has been way too warm this whole summer. the ECMWF extended has little to no pulse throughout its run
  20. brooklynwx99
    the PMM is still insane. can't remember the last time I saw a splotch of 7" like that
  21. brooklynwx99
    I don't even think this will get to super in terms of ONI... the Nino has stagnated over the last couple of days. the MEI continues to lag far behind in weak territory, which is a better representation of how the Nino is actually influencing the atmosphere. I don't anticipate canonical super Nino impacts even if we do get the three trimonthly ONIs of 2.0C
  22. brooklynwx99
    the PDO and PNA aren't always a perfect match... easier to get a -PDO/-PNA in a Nina and easier to get a +PDO/+PNA in a Nino, but there are deviations also, given how west-leaning the forcing has been so far, and considering we've seen significant cooling in Nino 1+2, the transition to a more basin-wide event has been occurring and should continue. the super east-based stuff doesn't really correspond to what we'll see this winter
  23. brooklynwx99
    Friday is concerning... persistent onshore flow leading to massive FGEN banding. as the banding pivots, it appears there is the potential for 2-4" amounts or greater, but who knows where the banding will set up. it's similar to a Norlun in that regard classic sloped FGEN with potent 700mb omega. kinda similar to something you'd see in the winter ENS and mesos are in agreement, and given the lead time of only two days, it appears like a significant flooding event is gaining traction
  24. brooklynwx99
    then 500mb from Dec-Feb:
  25. brooklynwx99
    regardless of the CanSIPS, the analogs that I put together (which are similar to those of my colleagues) have quite the warm Dec followed by a transitional Jan and pretty weenie Feb. so I wouldn't be worried if December wasn't great
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