NorthArlington101

ICON is a step back at 12z.

Nasty gradient... 10" in NW Arlington, 3" in SE. It's also still ripping at this point in DC.

and FWIW - just because I think it's interesting to track how the newer-tech (not necessarily better, at all) models do - the SPIRE has held a 6-8"+ storm (kinda like the 00z GFS/CMC) sicne 00z yesterday. It only runs 2x a day.

if we're being technical that was it's high-res counterpart the HRDPS - but yeah, RGEM isn't a known winner either. I know we've already shared the EPS mean -- below is the median. Wanted to make sure there weren't crazy outliers propping up the mean. Still looks solid enough.

Yeah it looks like 12z unfortunately. The slightest bit better in the cities. Best improvement is for NE MD.

MSLP off NC/SC border at 90

at 88 seems extraordinarily unlikely this would cut. Track should be pretty sweet

better HP look on 00z thru 78

Lot of variety. Very unsettled.

GEFS - less heavy for the western folks, but massive cushion.

I’ve done that twice now this week - apologies for the haste. And excitement

Little early

We’re so back

on a scale of 1-10 how worried are we about suppression?

for you! Need a bit more in the metro. But very close to a great run for all… just faster now so lower ceiling.

00z ICON is a solid tick SE with the heavier stuff.

Snow mean wise it’s actually a decrease, but my guess is that’s more just the max potential slipping away. Curious to see what the median is.

yeah, GFS runs too warm. prob subtract another 2-4 degrees of this run to run change.

probably not - but nice to know that outcome still exists in somewhere in the supercomputer's brain. FWIW, here is the snow depth map. I'd bite on 2-5" forum-wide, even in D.C. Too bad that has no bearing on the outcome

18z 12z

18z GFS is a little better than the 12z when it comes to raw snow output, at least, looking at the early maps I can get. More/heavier precip doing some cooling work I think. Go boom or go bust

it was on the globals... it was on the ens... we flagged this period around Christmas... Possibly losing this one blows and idrc what the people who pretend to come on this forum with zero emotions til the day of think. I don't believe them, quite frankly It's humbling to know we can (potentially) still lose it all in the MR. In theory one would like to think that means we could stumble into a great storm (Jan 2022?) in the mid-range too. Also nice to know that the models def don't have it all figured out... that's the eventual death of this hobby.