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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Big news for Georgia
  2. NorthArlington101
    00z NAM is kind of fun. If it can’t snow here I’d be okay with it snowing in Georgia.
  3. NorthArlington101
    largely noise - highlights are probably more snow SWVA, more snow central VA/along I-81, less members that are bringing snow further north out of our subforum. probability maps for just an 1" (hey, low bar) show non-zero improvement from 06z. Generally 0-10% better
  4. NorthArlington101
    EPS matches the OP pretty darn close thru 84 - maybe 20 miles more north w/ the vort. Scanning back and forth the vort pass is decidedly stronger than previous runs but more keeps ticking south. Sigh
  5. NorthArlington101
    weenie map
  6. NorthArlington101
    it actually gets it done for western folks at 114 - 850s cooperate under the deform and surface is 34-35
  7. NorthArlington101
    It's a "more interesting" run even if it doesn't do the job, I guess. Good run for SWVA
  8. NorthArlington101
    CMC does the same thing - seems sorta clear this is our short term problem. Long-term problem is everything else wrong with the setup, but there has to be some north shift or it is truly DOA.
  9. NorthArlington101
    See you for the EURO
  10. NorthArlington101
    mostly agree - this run verbatim is spitting out some snow in SC (and not just the mountains) - think there is a path to victory with perfection and a better placed vort pass. Just way too far south
  11. NorthArlington101
    Looks kinda like a wash to me thru 84 but not sure it matters much anyway - we get the perfect solution or we don't.
  12. NorthArlington101
    so much for German engineering - took hours to load in. Real close around the metro honestly.
  13. NorthArlington101
    Haven't had a great chance to do this yet but this storm is screaming "chase to I-81" -- was gonna be around the Cville/Staunton area til Saturday morning before heading back north but it wouldn't take a lot of wintery precip to convince me to stay a few extra days.
  14. NorthArlington101
    not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim.
  15. NorthArlington101
    snow mean took a solid step down - unfortunate. Pretty good for the western regions, though.
  16. NorthArlington101
    This looks like a good panel on the 06z EPS. Haven't looked at the individual members yet so that I can live in a world for a little longer where this is great news. Fingers crossed.
  17. NorthArlington101
    I mean I'm personally using a Jan 2016 blend with a little bit of Jan 2000 and a dash of Feb 2014, but not sure that's wise.
  18. NorthArlington101
    the CIPS analogs are interesting, but many caveats apply of course - mainly that cold air thing.
  19. NorthArlington101
    I’m (sorta?) 1/1 but agree with waiting till Thursday… or Friday…
  20. NorthArlington101
    10:1 clown map
  21. NorthArlington101
    i like this panel very much
  22. NorthArlington101
    I count 19/50 members that have a trackable storm somewhere in the subforum - hardly a consensus but as others have already said, surely a net positive run.
  23. NorthArlington101
    00z
  24. NorthArlington101
    12z EPS looks better than 6z to my eyes, at least in regards to the vort pass... maybe not the other things we need off @psuhoffman's list
  25. NorthArlington101
    Definitely has some shoving north to do - really identical with the GFS.
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